{
  "date": "2026-09-09",
  "modelCommit": "df4409d82165c42fe2524b0d9a86dd675054a102",
  "inputs": [
    {
      "key": "ac_world",
      "name": "AC World Equity",
      "category": "equities",
      "expectedReturn": 7.7337026507714235,
      "arithmeticReturn": 9.002756781943443,
      "volatility": 16.78,
      "skewness": -0.5,
      "excessKurtosis": 1,
      "source": "Portfolio Lab benchmark payout model: MSCI ACWI Index; income 2026-08-31; structural growth 2025-12-31; selected growth and valuation assumptions; USD inflation 2.492%; unhedged PPP. Broad developed-world structural growth prior applied to the all-country benchmark. Emerging-market earnings growth is not separately calibrated; no emerging-market premium is added.",
      "dates": {
        "priceOrProfile": "2026-08-31",
        "structuralGrowth": "2025-12-31"
      },
      "methodology": "MSCI ACWI Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior applied to the all-country benchmark. Emerging-market earnings growth is not separately calibrated; no emerging-market premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition."
    },
    {
      "key": "us_agg",
      "name": "US Aggregate Bonds",
      "category": "fixed_income",
      "expectedReturn": 5.013523659549235,
      "arithmeticReturn": 5.121127228611133,
      "volatility": 4.76,
      "skewness": -0.1,
      "excessKurtosis": 0.5,
      "source": "Portfolio Lab current model: AGG: US investment-grade aggregate: Treasury, agency, corporate and securitized holdings weighted by market value. Yield to worst 5.043% and effective duration 5.803 years, observed 2026-09-04; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights \u00d7 explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.047%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.028%. 0.002% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities \u00b11.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.",
      "dates": {
        "observed": "2026-09-04"
      },
      "methodology": "AGG: US investment-grade aggregate: Treasury, agency, corporate and securitized holdings weighted by market value. Yield to worst 5.043% and effective duration 5.803 years, observed 2026-09-04; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights \u00d7 explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.047%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.028%. 0.002% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities \u00b11.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01."
    },
    {
      "key": "bitcoin",
      "name": "Bitcoin",
      "category": "alternatives",
      "expectedReturn": 15,
      "arithmeticReturn": 21.79984009223155,
      "volatility": 42.5,
      "skewness": 0.8,
      "excessKurtosis": 2,
      "source": "Portfolio Lab est.",
      "dates": {},
      "methodology": "Portfolio Lab est."
    }
  ],
  "correlations": [
    [
      1,
      0.280836,
      0.330977
    ],
    [
      0.280836,
      1,
      0.113733
    ],
    [
      0.330977,
      0.113733,
      1
    ]
  ]
}