{
  "date": "2026-09-10",
  "sourceCommit": "9e944acd1944be288591580d56497af278a04eb8",
  "sourceHashes": {
    "src/lib/historical-returns.ts": "d1a284afb9985a0a8617ead1e444d8a40ba50d36eba97c8c0456e176cf4804e4",
    "src/lib/optimizer.ts": "7edddbe8bfd6a8a5aad73b90117d69c6bd5ae22b4928598ff230b4c893540ac3",
    "src/lib/weights.ts": "e36c2fe45466da2966ca8f8310fd40fb219c7a331eed9a5112d2539f69bd66f8",
    "scripts/research/historical-training-adapter.ts": "5d84b10e46d3526242b59ff5d067929ed15365ad2555470b4c078ea7c5be2ddf"
  },
  "currency": "USD",
  "candidate": {
    "weights": {
      "us_large_cap": 4.8,
      "us_agg": 95.2
    },
    "training": {
      "receipt": {
        "base": "USD",
        "from": "2006-01",
        "to": "2015-12",
        "months": 120,
        "holdings": [
          {
            "key": "us_large_cap",
            "name": "US Large Cap",
            "quote": "USD",
            "source": "SPY; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
          },
          {
            "key": "us_agg",
            "name": "US Aggregate Bonds",
            "quote": "USD",
            "source": "AGG; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
          },
          {
            "key": "gold",
            "name": "Gold",
            "quote": "USD",
            "source": "GLD; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
          }
        ],
        "policy": "Exact complete window; no splices, FX conversion, missing-value filling or automatic shortening"
      },
      "annualCompoundPct": 4.516138034374295,
      "annualVolatilityPct": 3.773341206704614,
      "maxMonthEndDrawdownPct": -5.604750139637071,
      "terminalMultiple": 1.5553693545142426,
      "rebalancing": "Monthly",
      "costs": "No extra transaction costs, taxes, slippage or cash flows"
    },
    "test": {
      "receipt": {
        "base": "USD",
        "from": "2016-01",
        "to": "2025-12",
        "months": 120,
        "holdings": [
          {
            "key": "us_large_cap",
            "name": "US Large Cap",
            "quote": "USD",
            "source": "SPY; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
          },
          {
            "key": "us_agg",
            "name": "US Aggregate Bonds",
            "quote": "USD",
            "source": "AGG; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
          },
          {
            "key": "gold",
            "name": "Gold",
            "quote": "USD",
            "source": "GLD; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
          }
        ],
        "policy": "Exact complete window; no splices, FX conversion, missing-value filling or automatic shortening"
      },
      "annualCompoundPct": 2.600725941523274,
      "annualVolatilityPct": 5.211541779238537,
      "maxMonthEndDrawdownPct": -16.13984534892985,
      "terminalMultiple": 1.2927196071269988,
      "rebalancing": "Monthly",
      "costs": "No extra transaction costs, taxes, slippage or cash flows"
    },
    "fitReceipt": {
      "base": "USD",
      "from": "2006-01",
      "to": "2015-12",
      "months": 120,
      "holdings": [
        {
          "key": "us_large_cap",
          "name": "US Large Cap",
          "quote": "USD",
          "source": "SPY; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
        },
        {
          "key": "us_agg",
          "name": "US Aggregate Bonds",
          "quote": "USD",
          "source": "AGG; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
        },
        {
          "key": "gold",
          "name": "Gold",
          "quote": "USD",
          "source": "GLD; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
        }
      ],
      "policy": "Exact complete window; no splices, FX conversion, missing-value filling or automatic shortening",
      "minimumObservations": 24,
      "diagonalShrinkage": 0.05,
      "means": "Equal zero placeholders; not used as a return objective",
      "objective": "Long-only, fully invested minimum variance; weights rounded by existing app solver"
    }
  },
  "choices": [
    {
      "id": "60-30-10",
      "label": "60% shares / 30% bonds / 10% gold",
      "weights": {
        "us_large_cap": 60,
        "us_agg": 30,
        "gold": 10
      },
      "training": {
        "receipt": {
          "base": "USD",
          "from": "2006-01",
          "to": "2015-12",
          "months": 120,
          "holdings": [
            {
              "key": "us_large_cap",
              "name": "US Large Cap",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "SPY; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            },
            {
              "key": "us_agg",
              "name": "US Aggregate Bonds",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "AGG; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            },
            {
              "key": "gold",
              "name": "Gold",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "GLD; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            }
          ],
          "policy": "Exact complete window; no splices, FX conversion, missing-value filling or automatic shortening"
        },
        "annualCompoundPct": 6.78439047992041,
        "annualVolatilityPct": 9.570396431876814,
        "maxMonthEndDrawdownPct": -31.349770270968836,
        "terminalMultiple": 1.9278699353802513,
        "rebalancing": "Monthly",
        "costs": "No extra transaction costs, taxes, slippage or cash flows"
      },
      "test": {
        "receipt": {
          "base": "USD",
          "from": "2016-01",
          "to": "2025-12",
          "months": 120,
          "holdings": [
            {
              "key": "us_large_cap",
              "name": "US Large Cap",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "SPY; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            },
            {
              "key": "us_agg",
              "name": "US Aggregate Bonds",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "AGG; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            },
            {
              "key": "gold",
              "name": "Gold",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "GLD; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            }
          ],
          "policy": "Exact complete window; no splices, FX conversion, missing-value filling or automatic shortening"
        },
        "annualCompoundPct": 11.083000710824752,
        "annualVolatilityPct": 10.058516044214345,
        "maxMonthEndDrawdownPct": -19.54582444691859,
        "terminalMultiple": 2.8607244600646413,
        "rebalancing": "Monthly",
        "costs": "No extra transaction costs, taxes, slippage or cash flows"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "60-40",
      "label": "60% shares / 40% bonds",
      "weights": {
        "us_large_cap": 60,
        "us_agg": 40,
        "gold": 0
      },
      "training": {
        "receipt": {
          "base": "USD",
          "from": "2006-01",
          "to": "2015-12",
          "months": 120,
          "holdings": [
            {
              "key": "us_large_cap",
              "name": "US Large Cap",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "SPY; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            },
            {
              "key": "us_agg",
              "name": "US Aggregate Bonds",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "AGG; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            },
            {
              "key": "gold",
              "name": "Gold",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "GLD; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            }
          ],
          "policy": "Exact complete window; no splices, FX conversion, missing-value filling or automatic shortening"
        },
        "annualCompoundPct": 6.360009990653759,
        "annualVolatilityPct": 9.253348534449557,
        "maxMonthEndDrawdownPct": -32.31534298027421,
        "terminalMultiple": 1.8526086801067678,
        "rebalancing": "Monthly",
        "costs": "No extra transaction costs, taxes, slippage or cash flows"
      },
      "test": {
        "receipt": {
          "base": "USD",
          "from": "2016-01",
          "to": "2025-12",
          "months": 120,
          "holdings": [
            {
              "key": "us_large_cap",
              "name": "US Large Cap",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "SPY; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            },
            {
              "key": "us_agg",
              "name": "US Aggregate Bonds",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "AGG; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            },
            {
              "key": "gold",
              "name": "Gold",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "GLD; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            }
          ],
          "policy": "Exact complete window; no splices, FX conversion, missing-value filling or automatic shortening"
        },
        "annualCompoundPct": 9.70676103636876,
        "annualVolatilityPct": 10.026540022134007,
        "maxMonthEndDrawdownPct": -20.046023033815164,
        "terminalMultiple": 2.525421840917391,
        "rebalancing": "Monthly",
        "costs": "No extra transaction costs, taxes, slippage or cash flows"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "80-20",
      "label": "80% shares / 20% bonds",
      "weights": {
        "us_large_cap": 80,
        "us_agg": 20,
        "gold": 0
      },
      "training": {
        "receipt": {
          "base": "USD",
          "from": "2006-01",
          "to": "2015-12",
          "months": 120,
          "holdings": [
            {
              "key": "us_large_cap",
              "name": "US Large Cap",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "SPY; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            },
            {
              "key": "us_agg",
              "name": "US Aggregate Bonds",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "AGG; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            },
            {
              "key": "gold",
              "name": "Gold",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "GLD; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            }
          ],
          "policy": "Exact complete window; no splices, FX conversion, missing-value filling or automatic shortening"
        },
        "annualCompoundPct": 6.846526926906549,
        "annualVolatilityPct": 12.106231660729357,
        "maxMonthEndDrawdownPct": -42.18437098004797,
        "terminalMultiple": 1.9391173795424275,
        "rebalancing": "Monthly",
        "costs": "No extra transaction costs, taxes, slippage or cash flows"
      },
      "test": {
        "receipt": {
          "base": "USD",
          "from": "2016-01",
          "to": "2025-12",
          "months": 120,
          "holdings": [
            {
              "key": "us_large_cap",
              "name": "US Large Cap",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "SPY; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            },
            {
              "key": "us_agg",
              "name": "US Aggregate Bonds",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "AGG; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            },
            {
              "key": "gold",
              "name": "Gold",
              "quote": "USD",
              "source": "GLD; checked-in adjusted ETF history, latest vintage"
            }
          ],
          "policy": "Exact complete window; no splices, FX conversion, missing-value filling or automatic shortening"
        },
        "annualCompoundPct": 12.228918197233064,
        "annualVolatilityPct": 12.499996416634236,
        "maxMonthEndDrawdownPct": -21.97833019771024,
        "terminalMultiple": 3.169916092672551,
        "rebalancing": "Monthly",
        "costs": "No extra transaction costs, taxes, slippage or cash flows"
      }
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Latest-vintage adjusted ETF data; retrospective universe and date choice.",
    "Training 2006-2015, evaluation 2016-2025; no pre-inception splices or 1985 claim.",
    "Fixed 5% diagonal covariance shrinkage; engineering conditioning, not an optimised hyperparameter.",
    "Monthly rebalancing, no extra trading costs, tax, slippage or cash flows; fund expenses may be embedded in ETF returns.",
    "Month-end observations can miss intramonth drawdowns.",
    "Different risk levels, not a same-risk comparison, forecast or recommendation."
  ]
}