RESEARCH

What we found when we checked.

Portfolio construction, capital market assumptions and Bitcoin sizing, each piece built from figures the engine produces rather than from opinion.

19 PIECES · FIGURES READ LIVE FROM THE REGISTRY

NEW23 AUG 26 · 7 MIN · CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS

Why We Average Capital Market Assumptions Instead of Picking One

Four firms forecast the same assets and disagree by more than 10 percentage points on private equity. We tested averaging their forecasts against committing to each one, and averaging won.

10.3pp

PRIVATE EQUITY SPREAD

19 AUG 26Levering Risk Parity Only Works With a Trend OverlayLevering a risk parity portfolio to a 60/40's volatility earned half a point a year and took a deeper drawdown to get it, which is a bad trade for anyone drawing an income. Applying a trend overlay first inverts the result. Forty years of monthly data, with the trading costs that would undo it stated.1.6xLEVERAGE AT MATCHED RISK 02 AUG 26How Much Bitcoin Do You Need to Retire?$60,000 a year for 30 years needs about 23.6 BTC — if Bitcoin compounds at 15%. Assume 10% and it becomes 46 coins. Assume 5% and no withdrawal rate survives at all. Why the coin count you've been given is mostly an assumption in disguise, and what a 10% allocation does differently.11 MIN 02 AUG 26The All-Weather Portfolio: How It Actually PerformedRay Dalio's All-Weather returned 4.69% a year from 2008 to 2026, against 6.63% for a 60/40. But it fell only 20.9% in the financial crisis where equities fell 51.7%, and recovered in nine months rather than four years. The full record, including the part where it loses.11.2%1970-2025 ANNUALISED 04 JUL 26Bitcoin DCA vs Lump Sum: What 12 Years of Data Actually SaysWe tested both strategies across 601 rolling start dates since 2014. Lump sum wins 66% of the time — but from cycle peaks, DCA ended with up to 2.6x the Bitcoin. Including a live case study through the current drawdown.10 MIN 20 MAR 26Bitcoin Rebalancing: When to Trim, When to AddMost Bitcoin holders either panic sell drawdowns or hold through everything and never take profits. Rebalancing gives you a disciplined framework that does both — automatically. Calendar, threshold, and hybrid strategies compared with real 2021-2022 examples.10 MIN 09 MAR 26What Would a 10% Bitcoin Portfolio Have Returned Since 2015?We added 10% Bitcoin to a classic 60/40 portfolio and ran it against a decade of real weekly price data. Real returns, real volatility, real drawdowns — with an interactive growth chart.5 MIN 09 MAR 26The Case for Bitcoin in a Retirement PortfolioWe ran 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations to test whether Bitcoin belongs in a retirement portfolio. A 5-15% allocation improved survival rates in most scenarios — but the details matter. Collapsible technical sections for deeper readers.11 MIN 08 MAR 26Bitcoin's Correlation to Stocks Is Lower Than You ThinkRolling correlation analysis shows Bitcoin's relationship with stocks, bonds, and gold shifts dramatically depending on the time window. Here's which rolling period to use — 3 months, 1 year, or 5 years — and what each one tells you about your portfolio.0.35VS US LARGE CAP 06 MAR 26Bitcoin vs Gold: Which Is the Better Portfolio Diversifier?We compared Bitcoin and gold across every metric that matters: returns, volatility, drawdowns, Sharpe ratio, and correlation to stocks. 15 years of weekly data since $0.07. The answer isn't 'pick one.'10 MIN 06 MAR 26Every Bitcoin Drawdown Over 20%: How Long Did Recovery Take?16 crashes. 15 full recoveries. 1 still active. Since 2010, every completed Bitcoin drawdown — including a 92% wipeout — recovered to a new all-time high. Full data table, the four mega-crashes, and what the current -47% drawdown means.8 MIN 01 MAR 26The Cheapest and Most Expensive Stock Markets in 2026CAPE ratios for 42 equity markets reveal Indonesia, Turkey, and Poland trading below their 25th percentile — while the US sits at its 98.7th. Full ranking table, historical hit rates, and what it means for your portfolio.98.7thUS CAPE PERCENTILE 01 MAR 26What Your Portfolio's Factor Exposures Reveal About Your Real RiskWe ran Fama-French 6-factor regressions on 60/40, Three-Fund, and All-World portfolios. Your 60/40 is really 63/37, your Three-Fund has a hidden value tilt, and none of them give you momentum.12 MIN 01 MAR 2616 Firms Predict Your Portfolio's Future — Where They Agree and DisagreeWe pulled capital market assumptions from 16 investment firms — J.P. Morgan, BlackRock, Northern Trust, Schwab, Invesco, and 11 more — to build the most comprehensive free comparison available. On US equities, they disagree by 4.5 percentage points. On bonds, just 1.0.4.5ppUS EQUITY SPREAD, 16 FIRMS 01 MAR 26How We Set Bitcoin Return Assumptions (And Why It's Hard)No institutional consensus exists for Bitcoin's expected return. We surveyed VanEck, Bitwise, CF Benchmarks, and ARK to arrive at 15% geometric return and 42.5% volatility — and explain why we chose the conservative end.15%OUR GEOMETRIC ESTIMATE 01 MAR 26The Updated Trinity Study: Safe Withdrawal Rates in 2026We ran 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations using J.P. Morgan 2026 forward-looking assumptions. The 4% rule doesn't hold at 95% confidence over 30 years. Full survival heatmaps inside.10 MIN 01 MAR 26How Much Bitcoin Should Be in Your Portfolio?Every published institutional position in one dated table, from J.P. Morgan's no-core-allocation to Ric Edelman's 40%. Plus why mean-variance optimization lands at 10-22% when no bank recommends above 4%: at a 4% weight Bitcoin already carries 7.5% of the risk.10 MIN 28 FEB 26The Free Portfolio Optimizer That Uses J.P. Morgan DataMost portfolio tools use historical returns. Portfolio Lab uses J.P. Morgan's forward-looking assumptions — 5 optimization methods, 42 asset classes, Monte Carlo, and backtesting. Completely free.6 MIN 28 FEB 26J.P. Morgan vs Research Affiliates: Which Capital Market Assumptions Should You Use?A data-driven comparison of the two most accessible CMA providers. Where they agree, where they diverge by 3.6 percentage points, and what it means for your portfolio.3.6ppUS EQUITY DISAGREEMENT