Research & Insights
Portfolio construction insights and capital market assumptions analysis.
Bitcoin DCA vs Lump Sum: What 12 Years of Data Actually Says
We tested both strategies across 601 rolling start dates since 2014. Lump sum wins 66% of the time — but from cycle peaks, DCA ended with up to 2.6x the Bitcoin. Including a live case study through the current drawdown.
Bitcoin Rebalancing: When to Trim, When to Add
Most Bitcoin holders either panic sell drawdowns or hold through everything and never take profits. Rebalancing gives you a disciplined framework that does both — automatically. Calendar, threshold, and hybrid strategies compared with real 2021-2022 examples.
What Would a 10% Bitcoin Portfolio Have Returned Since 2015?
We added 10% Bitcoin to a classic 60/40 portfolio and ran it against a decade of real weekly price data. Real returns, real volatility, real drawdowns — with an interactive growth chart.
The Case for Bitcoin in a Retirement Portfolio
We ran 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations to test whether Bitcoin belongs in a retirement portfolio. A 5-15% allocation improved survival rates in most scenarios — but the details matter. Collapsible technical sections for deeper readers.
Bitcoin's Correlation to Stocks Is Lower Than You Think
Rolling correlation analysis shows Bitcoin's relationship with stocks, bonds, and gold shifts dramatically depending on the time window. Here's which rolling period to use — 3 months, 1 year, or 5 years — and what each one tells you about your portfolio.
Bitcoin vs Gold: Which Is the Better Portfolio Diversifier?
We compared Bitcoin and gold across every metric that matters: returns, volatility, drawdowns, Sharpe ratio, and correlation to stocks. 15 years of weekly data since $0.07. The answer isn't 'pick one.'
Every Bitcoin Drawdown Over 20%: How Long Did Recovery Take?
16 crashes. 15 full recoveries. 1 still active. Since 2010, every completed Bitcoin drawdown — including a 92% wipeout — recovered to a new all-time high. Full data table, the four mega-crashes, and what the current -47% drawdown means.
The Cheapest and Most Expensive Stock Markets in 2026
CAPE ratios for 42 equity markets reveal Indonesia, Turkey, and Poland trading below their 25th percentile — while the US sits at its 98.7th. Full ranking table, historical hit rates, and what it means for your portfolio.
What Your Portfolio's Factor Exposures Reveal About Your Real Risk
We ran Fama-French 6-factor regressions on 60/40, Three-Fund, and All-World portfolios. Your 60/40 is really 63/37, your Three-Fund has a hidden value tilt, and none of them give you momentum.
16 Firms Predict Your Portfolio's Future — Where They Agree and Disagree
We pulled capital market assumptions from 16 investment firms — J.P. Morgan, BlackRock, Northern Trust, Schwab, Invesco, and 11 more — to build the most comprehensive free comparison available. On US equities, they disagree by 4.5 percentage points. On bonds, just 1.0.
How We Set Bitcoin Return Assumptions (And Why It's Hard)
No institutional consensus exists for Bitcoin's expected return. We surveyed VanEck, Bitwise, CF Benchmarks, and ARK to arrive at 15% geometric return and 42.5% volatility — and explain why we chose the conservative end.
The Updated Trinity Study: Safe Withdrawal Rates in 2026
We ran 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations using J.P. Morgan 2026 forward-looking assumptions. The 4% rule doesn't hold at 95% confidence over 30 years. Full survival heatmaps inside.
How Much Bitcoin Should Be in Your Portfolio? A Data-Driven Answer
Mean-variance optimization shows the optimal Bitcoin allocation is 4-12% depending on risk tolerance. Based on J.P. Morgan 2026 LTCMA and Portfolio Lab Bitcoin estimates.
The Free Portfolio Optimizer That Uses J.P. Morgan Data
Most portfolio tools use historical returns. Portfolio Lab uses J.P. Morgan's forward-looking assumptions — 5 optimization methods, 27 asset classes, Monte Carlo, and backtesting. Completely free.
J.P. Morgan vs Research Affiliates: Which Capital Market Assumptions Should You Use?
A data-driven comparison of the two most accessible CMA providers. Where they agree, where they diverge by 3.6 percentage points, and what it means for your portfolio.