Research & Insights
Portfolio construction insights and capital market assumptions analysis.
The Cheapest and Most Expensive Stock Markets in 2026
CAPE ratios for 42 equity markets reveal Indonesia, Turkey, and Poland trading below their 25th percentile — while the US sits at its 98.7th. Full ranking table, historical hit rates, and what it means for your portfolio.
What Your Portfolio's Factor Exposures Reveal About Your Real Risk
We ran Fama-French 6-factor regressions on 60/40, Three-Fund, and All-World portfolios. Your 60/40 is really 63/37, your Three-Fund has a hidden value tilt, and none of them give you momentum.
16 Firms Predict Your Portfolio's Future — Where They Agree and Disagree
We pulled capital market assumptions from 16 investment firms — J.P. Morgan, BlackRock, Northern Trust, Schwab, Invesco, and 11 more — to build the most comprehensive free comparison available. On US equities, they disagree by 4.5 percentage points. On bonds, just 1.0.
How We Set Bitcoin Return Assumptions (And Why It's Hard)
No institutional consensus exists for Bitcoin's expected return. We surveyed VanEck, Bitwise, CF Benchmarks, and ARK to arrive at 15% geometric return and 42.5% volatility — and explain why we chose the conservative end.
The Updated Trinity Study: Safe Withdrawal Rates in 2026
We ran 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations using J.P. Morgan 2026 forward-looking assumptions. The 4% rule doesn't hold at 95% confidence over 30 years. Full survival heatmaps inside.
How Much Bitcoin Should Be in Your Portfolio? A Data-Driven Answer
Mean-variance optimization shows the optimal Bitcoin allocation is 4-12% depending on risk tolerance. Based on J.P. Morgan 2026 LTCMA and Portfolio Lab Bitcoin estimates.
The Free Portfolio Optimizer That Uses J.P. Morgan Data
Most portfolio tools use historical returns. Portfolio Lab uses J.P. Morgan's forward-looking assumptions — 5 optimization methods, 27 asset classes, Monte Carlo, and backtesting. Completely free.
J.P. Morgan vs Research Affiliates: Which Capital Market Assumptions Should You Use?
A data-driven comparison of the two most accessible CMA providers. Where they agree, where they diverge by 3.6 percentage points, and what it means for your portfolio.