Where they disagree most
A dash in the table below means that provider does not publish a forecast for that asset class, not that it forecasts zero. Coverage varies a great deal: check the counts underneath before reading anything into a gap.
Provider columns show the stored source forecasts in nominal USD. Portfolio Lab estimates, including Bitcoin and derived style or listed-asset forecasts, have their own column and are excluded from provider coverage and disagreement counts. The workstation can apply market adjustments and your overrides, so its active figures may differ from this reference table. Volatility and Sharpe use the reference risk inputs, including Portfolio Lab estimates where applicable.
| Asset Class ↑ | Vol | JPM | BLK | AQR | RA | GMO† | PL estimate | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Asia ex-Japan | 20.8% | 7.9% | n/a | n/a | 6.1% | n/a | n/a | 0.32 |
| AC World Equity | 16.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | n/a | n/a | 0.31 |
| Bitcoin | 42.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 15.0% | 0.44 |
| Cash / Money Market | 0.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | n/a | 0.00 |
| Chinese Domestic Equity | 28.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.9% | n/a | n/a | 0.28 |
| Commodities (Broad) | 18.3% | 4.6% | n/a | 6.8% | 5.4% | n/a | n/a | 0.17 |
| Dev ex US Large Growth | 16.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 7.0% | n/a | 6.7% | 0.30 |
| Dev ex US Large Value | 17.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 8.3% | n/a | 8.1% | 0.37 |
| Dev ex US Small Growth | 17.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 7.5% | n/a | 7.3% | 0.32 |
| Dev ex US Small Value | 17.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 9.9% | n/a | 9.6% | 0.46 |
| Diversified Hedge Funds | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.6% | n/a | 7.8% | n/a | n/a | 0.41 |
| EAFE Equity | 17.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 1.5% | n/a | 0.33 |
| EM Corporate Bonds | 7.6% | 6.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.43 |
| EM Growth | 20.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 4.1% | n/a | 5.2% | 0.20 |
| EM Local Currency Debt | 12.1% | 6.7% | 4.8% | n/a | 7.2% | n/a | n/a | 0.35 |
| EM Sovereign Debt | 8.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | n/a | 0.40 |
| EM Value | 19.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 8.4% | n/a | 9.6% | 0.41 |
| Emerging Markets Equity | 20.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 2.0% | n/a | 0.32 |
| Euro Area Large Cap | 22.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | n/a | n/a | 0.31 |
| Global Infrastructure | 10.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.38 |
| Gold | 16.7% | 5.5% | n/a | n/a | 0.2% | n/a | n/a | 0.22 |
| Hong Kong Equity | 21.4% | 7.4% | n/a | n/a | 8.6% | n/a | n/a | 0.30 |
| Japanese Equity | 15.8% | 8.8% | n/a | 6.7% | 9.1% | n/a | n/a | 0.43 |
| Listed Infrastructure | 16.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 6.1% | 0.25 |
| Listed Private Debt | 20.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 6.3% | 0.25 |
| Listed Private Equity | 25.6% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 8.1% | 0.31 |
| Private Debt (Direct Lending) | 11.5% | 7.7% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.45 |
| Private Equity | 19.8% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 6.6% | 3.4% | n/a | n/a | 0.45 |
| TIPS | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | n/a | 5.5% | 4.4% | n/a | 0.23 |
| UK Large Cap | 17.5% | 6.6% | n/a | 7.1% | 6.8% | n/a | n/a | 0.28 |
| US Aggregate Bonds | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | n/a | 0.38 |
| US Core Real Estate | 11.4% | 8.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.50 |
| US High Yield Bonds | 8.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | n/a | n/a | 0.38 |
| US IG Corporate Bonds | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | n/a | n/a | 0.32 |
| US Intermediate Treasuries | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | n/a | n/a | 0.28 |
| US Large Cap | 16.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | -4.0% | n/a | 0.29 |
| US Large Growth | 17.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 1.8% | n/a | 5.2% | 0.20 |
| US Large Value | 15.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 3.9% | n/a | 7.3% | 0.35 |
| US Long Corporate Bonds | 12.3% | 5.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.24 |
| US Long Treasuries | 13.0% | 4.9% | n/a | n/a | 5.5% | n/a | n/a | 0.20 |
| US Mid Cap | 18.6% | 7.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.29 |
| US Muni 1-15 Yr | 4.2% | 3.8% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.19 |
| US Muni High Yield | 8.7% | 5.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.29 |
| US REITs | 17.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | n/a | 5.7% | n/a | n/a | 0.41 |
| US Securitized | 4.2% | 5.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.52 |
| US Short Gov/Credit | 1.6% | 4.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.56 |
| US Small Cap | 21.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | -2.4% | n/a | 0.27 |
| US Small Growth | 22.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 5.6% | n/a | 5.3% | 0.20 |
| US Small Value | 19.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 8.6% | n/a | 8.3% | 0.36 |
| US Value Factor | 17.7% | 7.7% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.34 |
| Venture Capital | 22.2% | 8.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.34 |
| World ex-US Govt Bonds | 9.1% | 4.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.18 |
| World Govt Bonds | 7.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | n/a | 6.0% | n/a | n/a | 0.20 |
| World Large Growth | 15.8% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 2.9% | n/a | 5.2% | 0.20 |
| World Large Value | 15.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 5.2% | n/a | 7.4% | 0.35 |
| World Small Growth | 17.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 6.6% | n/a | 8.8% | 0.40 |
| World Small Value | 16.6% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 8.9% | n/a | 11.1% | 0.55 |
Risk vs Return by Provider
Read the forecasts yourself
Every firm below publishes its own assumptions. These links go to the source, not to us. Editions change; if a link has moved, the firm's own insights section will carry the current one.
Every house we track, one page each
This tool goes deep on asset classes and shallow on firms: every forecaster we carry full detail for, across all our asset classes. These pages do the opposite, one firm at a time across the four headline classes. If you came looking for a particular firm, start there.
How Each Provider Builds Their Forecasts
Building-block equilibrium model. Decomposes returns into revenue growth, buyback yield, dividends, valuation drag, and margin pressure.
Three macro scenarios: Starting Point (base), AI Productivity Boom (US tech dominance), and US Risk Premia Reset (US valuations revert). Volatility held constant. Only returns vary.
CAEP + payout model for equities. Rolling yield model for bonds. Averages two independent approaches.
Valuation-driven. Anchors on current prices relative to fair value. Mean reversion is central to the model.
CAPE-based mean reversion. Starting valuations are the primary return driver. Expects halfway reversion over 10 years.
Important Notes
All returns shown are nominal geometric (compound) annual returns in USD. GMO publishes real returns, so we add 2.5% expected US CPI inflation for comparability.
Volatility column uses J.P. Morgan estimates throughout. Other providers don't publish volatility for all asset classes.
Sharpe ratio is computed on J.P. Morgan's 2026 assumptions: (expected return minus the 3.10% risk-free rate) / volatility.
"n/a" means the provider doesn't publish an estimate for that asset class. This doesn't mean they have no view: it may not be in their public dataset.
† GMO is shown for comparison only. They publish 8 of the asset classes here, too few to build a portfolio on, so Portfolio Lab does not offer them as a selectable assumption set and their figures are left out of the spread table and the scatter above.
These are forward-looking estimates, not predictions. All five providers emphasize significant uncertainty around their central estimates.
Different forecast horizons (7-15 years) make direct comparison imperfect. Shorter horizons tend to be more sensitive to starting valuations.
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