Capital Market Monitor: September 2026
Snapshot: 9 September 2026 · Ten-year central scenario · First issue
See what Portfolio Lab's models assumed on one date, inspect the methods and download the results. This first issue establishes a baseline. It does not claim month-on-month changes: we do not yet have a comparable earlier issue.
321 numerical model outputs across five currency views. These are currency-and-asset combinations, not that many distinct asset classes. 6 rows are explicitly excluded from numerical comparison.
Defaults only, with the app's default hedge selection and no personal overrides. The currency label is the investor's modelling basis, not the exchange currency of a fund. Read each row's method for its exchange-rate assumption.
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Compound return is the model's annual growth assumption. Volatility describes fluctuations; it is not a maximum loss. The download also includes the average annual return used internally. Do not subtract volatility from the compound number again.
Input dates differ because prices, company fundamentals and economic series are published on different schedules. A September calculation can legitimately use a June company reporting period. Opening a row shows those dates separately. The issue date never replaces the source observation dates. Some structural assumptions are judgements, not observed facts; the methods explain them.
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57 rows shown. Ten-year central planning estimates in USD, before investor tax. Fee treatment differs by asset and is described in each method.
| Asset and method | Annual compound return | Annual volatility |
|---|---|---|
| US Large Cap No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesS&P 500. Broad US large-cap growth assumption; the published group uses MSCI USA, while cash flows here use S&P 500. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 7.20% | 16.47% |
| US Mid Cap No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesRussell Midcap Index. Broad US growth prior; no benchmark-specific midcap growth estimate or extra size premium is claimed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 7.64% | 18.56% |
| US Value Factor No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesJP Morgan US Value Factor Index. Broad US growth prior; no extra value-factor premium is added. This is not a measured growth forecast for the JPM factor index. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 8.01% | 17.70% |
| US Small Cap No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesRussell 2000 Index. US small-cap growth assumption from MSCI small caps, used as a related-market prior for Russell 2000. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 7.60% | 21.10% |
| Euro Area Large Cap No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI EMU Index. Euro-area growth prior; the source's five-country aggregation differs from MSCI EMU. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 8.43% | 22.04% |
| UK Large Cap No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI United Kingdom Index. UK market growth assumption. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 7.98% | 17.52% |
| Japanese Equity No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI Japan Index. Japanese market growth assumption. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 8.32% | 15.77% |
| AC Asia ex-Japan No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index. Broad emerging-market growth prior for this emerging-heavy Asian basket; developed Asian constituents are not separately calibrated. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 7.45% | 20.84% |
| Emerging Markets Equity No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index. Emerging-market growth assumption; the provider uses its GDP-based approach, not a measured buyback adjustment. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 7.79% | 20.93% |
| Chinese Domestic Equity No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesCSI 300. China country growth prior; the source's broad MSCI China universe differs from domestic CSI 300. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 8.80% | 28.70% |
| Hong Kong Equity No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI Hong Kong Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior, not a measured Hong Kong earnings forecast. Hong Kong-listed domestic index coverage is distinct from MSCI China; no China GDP growth is substituted. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 9.52% | 21.37% |
| EAFE Equity No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI EAFE Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior. EAFE excludes Canada while the source group includes it; this related-market assumption is not benchmark-specific. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 8.41% | 17.63% |
| AC World Equity No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI ACWI Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior applied to the all-country benchmark. Emerging-market earnings growth is not separately calibrated; no emerging-market premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 7.73% | 16.78% |
| US Large Value No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesRussell 1000 Value Index. Broad US large-cap structural growth prior, not today's constituents' reported five-year growth. Reconstitution changes the style basket; no persistent value alpha or valuation convergence is assumed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 7.78% | 14.96% |
| US Large Growth No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesRussell 1000 Growth Index. Broad US large-cap structural growth prior. Growth-stock classifications do not justify extrapolating today's unusually fast constituent earnings growth for a decade. No style alpha is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 6.62% | 17.31% |
| US Small Value No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesRussell 2000 Value Index. Related US small-cap structural growth prior. Russell style reconstitution and migration are not separately forecast; no extra value or size premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 8.41% | 19.10% |
| US Small Growth No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesRussell 2000 Growth Index. Related US small-cap structural growth prior. High reported growth among surviving profitable constituents is not used as whole-index forward growth; no extra style premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 6.82% | 22.25% |
| Dev ex US Large Value No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI World ex USA Value Index. Developed ex-US growth prior for MSCI World ex USA Value (large and mid caps, including Canada). No extra value premium or convergence to the growth index's multiple is assumed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 9.30% | 17.22% |
| Dev ex US Large Growth No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI World ex USA Growth Index. Developed ex-US growth prior for MSCI World ex USA Growth (large and mid caps, including Canada). Constituent growth is not extrapolated through future style reconstitution. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 7.34% | 16.24% |
| Dev ex US Small Value No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI World ex USA Small Cap Value Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior; no separately calibrated small-value growth or premium is claimed. Income is trailing gross index distributions recovered from matched daily price and gross-return series, not indicated yield or the different value-weighted index. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 9.29% | 17.12% |
| Dev ex US Small Growth No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI World ex USA Small Cap Growth Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior, including Canada; no small-growth premium or extrapolation of constituent growth through future reconstitution. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 7.39% | 17.47% |
| World Large Value No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI World Value Index. Developed-world structural growth prior. The benchmark includes large and mid caps; no convergence to the growth index multiple or extra value premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 8.50% | 15.12% |
| World Large Growth No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI World Growth Index. Developed-world structural growth prior for large and mid caps. Current growth classifications do not imply permanently faster index earnings growth. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 6.82% | 15.77% |
| World Small Value No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI World Small Cap Value Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior; small-value growth, migration and factor premiums are not separately calibrated. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 8.90% | 16.58% |
| World Small Growth No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI World Small Cap Growth Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior; no permanent small-growth premium or survivor-only earnings extrapolation. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 6.93% | 17.90% |
| EM Value No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI Emerging Markets Value Index. Emerging-market GDP-based structural growth prior, not a measured style-specific EPS forecast. Net issuance and style migration may differ; no additional buyback or value premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 8.58% | 19.91% |
| EM Growth No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index. Emerging-market GDP-based structural growth prior. Fast-growing constituents and style reconstitution do not establish a permanent index growth premium; no separate buyback yield. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
| 6.87% | 20.19% |
| US Intermediate Treasuries No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesIEF portfolio yield 4.73% and duration 6.95 years, observed 2026-09-04. ICE US Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index; intermediate-maturity proxy, consistent with the app's IEF historical proxy. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.5 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates for every underlying currency: no predicted FX gain or house FX adjustment. Rate scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds or currency stress tests.
| 4.73% | 3.48% |
| US Long Treasuries No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesTLT portfolio yield 5.3% and duration 15.06 years, observed 2026-09-04. ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index; long-maturity Treasury proxy. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.2 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates for every underlying currency: no predicted FX gain or house FX adjustment. Rate scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds or currency stress tests.
| 5.30% | 13.02% |
| World Govt Bonds No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesIGLO portfolio yield 4.24% and duration 6.39 years, observed 2026-09-07. FTSE G7 Government Bond Index; G7 developed-sovereign proxy, not all countries in the wider world-government universe; unhedged currency basket. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.5 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates for every underlying currency: no predicted FX gain or house FX adjustment. Rate scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds or currency stress tests.
| 4.24% | 7.27% |
| US IG Corporate Bonds No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesLQD: US dollar investment-grade corporate bonds; iBoxx USD liquid corporate proxy. Yield to worst 5.721% and effective duration 7.768 years, observed 2026-09-04; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.082%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.049%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
| 5.67% | 7.39% |
| US High Yield Bonds No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesHYG: US dollar high-yield corporate bonds; iBoxx USD liquid high-yield proxy. Yield to worst 6.804% and effective duration 3.017 years, observed 2026-09-04; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 3.380%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 2.007%. 1.013% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
| 4.64% | 8.74% |
| EM Sovereign Debt No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesEMB: US dollar emerging-market sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt; J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Core proxy. Yield to worst 6.473% and effective duration 6.497 years, observed 2026-09-04; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1975 to 2025 foreign-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 1.734%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 1.037%. 0.344% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
| 5.36% | 8.83% |
| EM Local Currency Debt No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesLEMB: Emerging-market sovereign bonds in their actual local currencies; J.P. Morgan GBI-EM 15% cap/4% floor proxy. Yield to worst 7.284% and effective duration 5.272 years, observed 2026-09-04; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1993 to 2025 local-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.160%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.096%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: PYG 4.0%, UYU 4.0%, DOP 4.0%, RSD 4.0%, TRY 4.0%, BRL 4.0%, CLP 3.9%, PEN 4.0%, ZAR 4.2%, COP 4.1%, HUF 4.0%, MXN 5.6%, PLN 4.5%, INR 8.9%, CNY 15.1%, CZK 3.9%, RON 4.0%, IDR 4.8%, THB 4.2%, MYR 4.8%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
| 7.18% | 12.12% |
| US Muni 1-15 Yr No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesTAXI: ICE intermediate tax-exempt investment-grade municipals; proxy for the app's 1-15-year municipal blend. Yield to worst 3.420% and effective duration 4.630 years, observed 2026-09-04; issuer portfolio yield to worst. 0.05% annual IG municipal default planning allowance; a conservative model assumption, not a measured current fund default probability. Default prior 0.050%/year; assumed recovery 50%; annual performing credit loss 0.025%. Issuer aggregate: individual missing-yield coverage is not published. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
| 3.39% | 4.16% |
| US Muni High Yield No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesCGHM: Capital Group Municipal High-Income active portfolio proxy, including lower-rated investment-grade and high-yield/unrated US municipal debt; not an exact broad-index replication. Yield to worst 5.000% and effective duration 7.900 years, observed 2026-09-04; issuer portfolio yield to worst. 1.2% annual high-income municipal default planning prior, rounded from the separately dated 1.19% historical study; applied to the entire active proxy because a usable current rating breakdown is unavailable. Default prior 1.200%/year; assumed recovery 50%; annual performing credit loss 0.600%. Issuer aggregate: individual missing-yield coverage is not published. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
| 4.37% | 8.72% |
| US Securitized No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesAGG: US aggregate securitized sleeve only: agency mortgage pass-throughs, ABS and CMBS, weighted by actual market value. Yield to worst 5.326% and effective duration 5.599 years, observed 2026-09-04; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.019%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.012%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
| 5.31% | 4.19% |
| US Short Gov/Credit No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesAGG: US aggregate government/credit sleeve with remaining contractual maturity from one to three years; excludes mortgages, ABS and CMBS. Yield to worst 4.455% and effective duration 1.820 years, observed 2026-09-04; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.039%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.024%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
| 4.43% | 1.63% |
| US Long Corporate Bonds No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesIGLB: US dollar corporate bonds with remaining maturity over ten years; ICE BofA long corporate proxy. Yield to worst 6.192% and effective duration 11.742 years, observed 2026-09-04; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.084%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.050%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
| 6.14% | 12.28% |
| World ex-US Govt Bonds No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesIGOV: Developed-market government bonds outside the US in their actual currencies; FTSE WGBI developed ex-US capped proxy. Yield to worst 3.675% and effective duration 7.319 years, observed 2026-09-04; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1993 to 2025 local-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.035%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.021%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: DKK 1.5%, EUR 54.7%, GBP 7.1%, ILS 3.4%, JPY 11.6%, NZD 2.3%, AUD 4.6%, SEK 1.4%, SGD 2.8%, KRW 4.7%, CAD 4.6%, NOK 1.3%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
| 3.65% | 9.06% |
| EM Corporate Bonds No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesCEMB: US dollar emerging-market corporate bonds; J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Core proxy. Yield to worst 6.268% and effective duration 4.222 years, observed 2026-09-04; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.907%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.541%. 0.561% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
| 5.67% | 7.64% |
| TIPS No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesTIP portfolio real yield 2.26%, effective duration 6.35 years, observed 2026-09-04. Real carry and constant-duration first-order repricing, converted once to nominal using shared 10-year US CPI expectation 2.492%. SEC distribution yield and nominal YTM are not used. Flat real yield centrally; real-yield shifts ±1.5pp and inflation ±1pp are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Indexation lag, deflation floor, tax and exact cash flows are not individually priced; gross of fund fees. USD inflation protection, unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; it is not protection against another country's CPI.
| 4.81% | 5.88% |
| US Aggregate Bonds No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesAGG: US investment-grade aggregate: Treasury, agency, corporate and securitized holdings weighted by market value. Yield to worst 5.043% and effective duration 5.803 years, observed 2026-09-04; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.047%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.028%. 0.002% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
| 5.01% | 4.76% |
| US REITs No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesNareit All Equity REIT income yield 3.68%; real dividend-per-share trend 1.449% over 2011Q2-2026Q2, four-quarter sums deflated with quarter-end CPI. Our 50% shrinkage towards zero gives 0.725% real growth. FFO-per-share trend 1.792% is a cross-check, not added income. Share issuance, repurchases and distributions enter per-share growth once. Changing industry membership and aggregate per-share measurement limit this proxy. Nominal cash-flow IRR, unchanged exit yield centrally; growth ±2pp and terminal value ±25% over ten years. No automatic yield reversion or extra capex deduction from dividends; gross of wrapper fees. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
| 7.03% | 17.40% |
| US Core Real Estate No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesCore property: actual ODCE income 4.08% already includes interest. Recover NOI, grow it with current inflation plus 1% real, deduct fixed interest once and 1.2% asset-value maintenance capex. 27.1% debt/value, 5.5% financing, unchanged exit yield. Gross/net observed fund wealth gives 0.823% annual fee allowance. Central reinvestment maintains property exposure; cash reinvestment gives 6.09%. Current inflation does not revalue the starting income. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
| 6.29% | 11.39% |
| Global Infrastructure No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesPrivate infrastructure: SIPA Infra300 Q2 valuation-implied equity discount rate 10.44% anchors gross planning growth. Treating a required discount rate as long-run geometric growth is an explicit equilibrium assumption, not a published expected CAGR. Project borrowing is already reflected in equity value: no second leverage multiplier. Fund layer: 1.25% annual wealth fee and 10% carry after 6% preferred return. ±3pp gross-rate sensitivity spans materially different cash-flow and valuation views. Benchmark includes broader infrastructure and mixed local currencies; treating its central rate as a USD planning anchor is approximate, with FX risk retained. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
| 8.41% | 10.25% |
| Listed Infrastructure No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesMSCI World Infrastructure current dividend yield 3.54%, P/E 17.34 (valuation context). Our real per-share growth prior 1.750% is half the broad-world structural growth assumption, shrunk towards zero for mature capital-intensive businesses; not measured sector earnings growth. No separate buyback premium. Nominal cash-flow IRR, unchanged multiple centrally; growth ±2pp and exit value ±25% over ten years. Developed-market infrastructure benchmark proxy, not an exact replication of every listed infrastructure fund. Gross of fees. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
| 7.98% | 16.88% |
| Commodities (Broad) No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesFully collateralized broad commodity futures: horizon-matched ACM expected cash × a 1.5% annual relative-wealth futures premium. Our premium shrinks the published roughly 3% long-history equal-weighted result halfway towards zero because broad commercial indexes differ in weighting and rolling. The premium includes spot changes, rolling and diversification; inflation and roll yield are not added again. No claim that today's futures curve persists for ten years. −3%/+4.5% premium sensitivities, gross of implementation costs; index design materially changes results. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
| 5.77% | 18.32% |
| Gold No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesPhysical bullion monetary scenario: observed spot 2026-09-04, US M2 2026-07, no projection of missing global money data. Matched monthly bullion/M2 ratios over twenty years; latest spot divided by latest observed M2 is 1.88 times the historical median. Twenty-year observed M2 growth 6.258% is the future money-growth assumption. 0.3333333333333333 log-ratio reversion centrally; no/full reversion and money growth ±2pp in sensitivities. Growth, valuation and 0.4% annual holding cost compound multiplicatively. Monthly averages and latest daily spot are different observation frequencies. US M2 is a monetary proxy, not all global gold demand or intrinsic value; this heuristic is not the World Gold Council GLTER model or a validated causal forecast. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
| 3.63% | 16.68% |
| Diversified Hedge Funds No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesDiversified hedge funds: covariance-consistent equity and credit factor exposures, plus 1.15pp net strategy residual in the arithmetic mean. This rounded middle of recent matched-fund residual evidence (~0.55pp) and Cliffwater's strategy mixture (1.77pp) includes omitted arbitrage/trend premia and skill after fees. It is not guaranteed alpha. Whole-sample historical alpha is not extrapolated; net residual 0-2.3pp is a sensitivity. Economic risk is anchored to the diversified JPM fund category, with source residual dependence estimated from the broad net-fund history. The former full ARMA risk estimate is retained as a comparison, not treated as validated economic volatility. Strategy composition and the transfer of the net premium remain explicit uncertainties. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
| 6.16% | 5.75% |
| Private Equity No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesBuyout cash-flow model: 12x entry and 12x exit EBITDA, 37% debt/value, 5.6% observed EBITDA growth fading to 4.54%, 60% cash conversion after tax/capex/working capital. Borrowing at cash + 5pp; cash repays debt first. Management 1.75% stepping down to 1.25% after year 5, 20% carry after 8% preferred return with catch-up, 1% entry cost on invested equity. Central 8.17% assumes replacement investments earn the same net IRR; cash reinvestment gives 8.17%. No additional volatility subtraction from this cash-flow rate. No blanket private premium. The default holds the exit multiple equal to the entry multiple; an edited exit multiple changes that assumption. Cash conversion and later fund terms remain judgement inputs. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
| 8.17% | 19.78% |
| Listed Private Equity No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesListed private equity: joint ac_world equity beta 1.395 and us_treasuries beta -0.075, solved together from the app's covariance assumptions. Current arithmetic factor premia over horizon-matched cash, converted with 25.59% economic volatility. Zero net alpha; no assumed manager selection skill. Global listed managers and investment companies differ from unlisted buyout funds. No extra illiquidity premium or automatic discount-to-NAV closure is added. Scenarios cross both factor forecasts with net alpha ±2pp; sensitivities are deliberately broad and are not calibrated confidence intervals. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
| 8.01% | 25.59% |
| Venture Capital No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesVenture capital: median of three planning models. (1) Current buyout net return with JPM's structural net VC/buyout spread -1.7pp: 6.47%. (2) Current small-cap return plus PGIM's 2.2pp gross private premium, less 2% management and 20% carry above 8%: 7.61%. (3) Current small-growth factor return plus shrunk net fund residual 1.28pp in arithmetic space: 6.46%. Institutional spreads are dated structural priors, not current house forecasts. Residual estimate 4.32pp, standard error 3.08, prior SD 2pp; 2009-2025 sample misses dotcom/GFC and has benchmark/backfill uncertainty. We do not use pooled IRR as a return series or claim company-level failure modelling. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
| 6.47% | 22.20% |
| Private Debt (Direct Lending) No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesDirect lending: cash 4.21% + 1.75× private loan spread 5.25% + 1.75× annual origination income 0.40% − 1.75× annual credit loss 0.825% − 0.75× funding spread 2%. Management 1.375% and administration 0.35% on investor equity; 12.5% incentive on annual gains above 6%. Expected incentive fees integrated over pre-fee outcomes, not applied just to average income. Post-fee mean 8.58% and 11.50% economic risk are matched to the app's lognormal return convention once. Fee-transformed outcomes are approximated by their moments; annual reset is not a perpetual high-water mark. Private spreads already include illiquidity compensation. No second premium, dividend or discount-to-NAV gain is added. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
| 7.97% | 11.50% |
| Listed Private Debt No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesListed private debt / BDC shares: joint us_large_cap equity beta 0.826 and high_yield beta 0.415, solved together from the app's covariance assumptions. Current arithmetic factor premia over horizon-matched cash, converted with 20.24% economic volatility. Zero net alpha; no assumed manager selection skill. The credit factor uses current portfolio yields after default losses. BDC distributions are not added to total equity returns. This is a factor proxy, not a loan-by-loan or price-to-NAV valuation. Scenarios cross both factor forecasts with net alpha ±2pp; sensitivities are deliberately broad and are not calibrated confidence intervals. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
| 6.18% | 20.24% |
| Bitcoin No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesPortfolio Lab est. No detailed current-model output in this export; excluded from numerical comparison | Not included | Not included |
| Cash / Money Market No currency hedge model applied Method, input dates and sourcesNew York Fed ACM risk-neutral yield, converted to annual compounding; ±0.5pp sensitivity, not confidence bounds
| 4.21% | 0.67% |
Use it, cite it, challenge it
Suggested citation: Portfolio Lab, Capital Market Monitor, 9 September 2026, ten-year central model snapshot. Link to this issue when referring to its numbers. Published institutional assumptions are separately available in our house comparison.
The snapshot is generated from the same forecast functions as the app. The model revision is bfc25e936971. This identifies the model and input revision used by the snapshot generator. Reproduction requires that revision and the stated calculation date; later input updates can produce different results.
Read the return forecast methodology, then create a free account to change assumptions and test your portfolio. This table contains no personal holdings.
About this snapshot
Are these forecasts from J.P. Morgan or BlackRock?
No. These are Portfolio Lab model outputs. Institutional and academic research informs some methods, and each row provides source links. They are not forecasts endorsed by those institutions.
Does the snapshot stay current?
This issue is deliberately fixed at 9 September 2026 so it can be cited and reproduced. It is not a live feed. The workstation uses its available updated inputs; each input retains its original observation date.
Why are some rows not included?
The export omits numerical values where a detailed current-model result is absent or unavailable. In this issue that includes Bitcoin in every currency and German Mid Cap in EUR. This does not mean the app has no assumption for them; it means they are outside this export’s detailed model coverage.
Can I add the asset forecasts to get a portfolio forecast?
No. Annual compound returns are not directly additive across assets. The app also uses volatilities and correlations to estimate portfolio compounding. These are conditional planning estimates, not guaranteed outcomes or calibrated probability bounds.