14 firms have US equity point estimates in this dated comparison. They do not agree. On US equities the range runs from 3.1% to 9.0%, a gap of 5.9 percentage points. Use the illustration below to see what different assumptions mean in money. A further 3 are listed without figures, because they forecast over a different horizon or publish ranges rather than point estimates.
One page per house, each with its published figures, the edition they came from, and how far it sits from the median. Sorted most cautious first.
TRY THE PUBLISHED ASSUMPTIONS · NO ACCOUNT NEEDED
Change the house, your starting amount or monthly saving. This illustrates a US equity investment over ten years in US dollars, before inflation, fees and taxes.
Illustrated value after ten years at 9.0% a year
$236,736
You contribute $100,000 in total. Monthly savings are added at month end.
Source edition: August 2026 CMA, data as of 30 June 2026; USD, 10-year Starting point. Editions, benchmarks and source horizons differ. Applying a quoted rate for ten years is an illustration, not a new forecast from that firm.
Without added savings: starting amount × (1 + annual return) to the power of ten. With savings, the annual compound rate is converted to its equivalent monthly rate. Each month earns that rate before the next contribution is added. Markets will not follow this smooth path. This is not a simulation, retirement success probability, or forecast of a mixed portfolio.
Your portfolio probably includes more than US equities. In the free app, inspect and change the return assumptions for your own mix, then test the result. These published figures are reference inputs; this illustration does not change your saved portfolio.
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| House | US eq | Intl dev | EM | US bonds | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Affiliates | 3.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | Valuation-driven |
| Invesco | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 4.5% | Valuation-driven |
| PGIM | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 4.7% | n/a |
| Morningstar | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 4.5% | n/a |
| Verus | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.7% | n/a |
| Schwab | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 4.8% | n/a |
| AQR | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 4.9% | Factor / risk premia |
| Meketa | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | n/a |
| Amundi | 6.5% | n/a | 7.2% | 4.6% | n/a |
| J.P. Morgan | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 4.8% | Building blocks |
| Northern Trust | 6.8% | n/a | 6.9% | 5.0% | Building blocks |
| Callan | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 4.7% | Building blocks |
| BNY Mellon | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 4.3% | n/a |
| BlackRock | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 4.9% | Factor / risk premia |
| Vanguard | 4.2-6.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Fidelity | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| PIMCO | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Median | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.8% |
Annual return forecasts from the listed source editions; horizons and conventions differ. Vanguard publishes ranges rather than point estimates and is excluded from the median. Reviewed 16 August 2026.
Some published sets are averages of other firms’ assumptions rather than a view of their own. They answer a different question, so they are kept out of the median above and listed here instead.
For where the houses agree, where they diverge and the three methodologies that explain most of it, see what 18 firms expect from the next decade. To see how much the choice of house actually changes a portfolio, the comparison tool runs them side by side.