Fifteen firms publish ten-year return forecasts. They do not agree. On US equities the range runs from 3.1% to 7.6%, a gap of 4.5 percentage points that compounds to more than $500,000 on a $1 million portfolio over the decade.
One page per house, each with its published figures, the edition they came from, and how far it sits from the median. Sorted most cautious first.
| House | US eq | Intl dev | EM | US bonds | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Affiliates | 3.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | Valuation-driven |
| Invesco | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 4.5% | Valuation-driven |
| BlackRock | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.1% | Factor / risk premia |
| PGIM | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 4.7% | — |
| Morningstar | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 4.5% | — |
| Verus | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.7% | — |
| Schwab | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 4.8% | — |
| Amundi | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | — | — |
| AQR | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 4.9% | Factor / risk premia |
| Meketa | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | — |
| J.P. Morgan | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 4.8% | Building blocks |
| Northern Trust | 6.8% | — | 6.9% | 5.0% | Building blocks |
| Callan | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 4.7% | Building blocks |
| BNY Mellon | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 4.3% | — |
| Vanguard | 3.5–5.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Median | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 4.7% |
10-year nominal geometric returns in USD. Vanguard publishes probability-weighted ranges rather than point estimates and is excluded from the median. Reviewed 16 August 2026.
For where the houses agree, where they diverge and the three methodologies that explain most of it, see what 16 firms expect from the next decade. To see how much the choice of house actually changes a portfolio, the comparison tool runs them side by side.