Morningstar Capital Market Assumptions 2026
Morningstar forecasts 5.3% a year from US equities over the next decade, 0.7 percentage points below the median of the 14 houses we track.
Source: 2026 Forecast. All figures are 10-year nominal geometric returns in USD. Reviewed 16 August 2026.
| Asset class | Morningstar | Median of 14 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| US equities | 5.3% | 6.0% | -0.7pp |
| International developed | 7.5% | 7.2% | +0.3pp |
| Emerging markets | 9.9% | 7.7% | +2.3pp |
| US aggregate bonds | 4.5% | 4.7% | -0.2pp |
Where Morningstar sits among the 14
On US equities, Morningstar is the 5th most cautious of the 14 houses publishing a point estimate, at 5.3% against a range of 3.1% to 7.6%.
| House | US equities |
|---|---|
| Research Affiliates | 3.1% |
| Invesco | 4.7% |
| BlackRock | 5.2% |
| PGIM | 5.2% |
| Morningstar | 5.3% |
| Verus | 5.4% |
| Schwab | 5.9% |
| Amundi | 6.1% |
| AQR | 6.3% |
| Meketa | 6.4% |
| J.P. Morgan | 6.7% |
| Northern Trust | 6.8% |
| Callan | 7.3% |
| BNY Mellon | 7.6% |
For the full comparison across all four asset classes, where the houses agree and why they disagree, see what 16 firms expect from the next decade.
Build a portfolio on these numbers
Portfolio Lab optimises across 27 asset classes on J.P. Morgan's 2026 assumptions, and lets you override any expected return with a different house's view to see how much the answer actually moves.
Open the optimiserFigures as published by Morningstar in 2026 Forecast, reviewed 16 August 2026 and re-checked when each house issues a new edition. Portfolio Lab is not affiliated with Morningstar. This is analysis, not investment advice.