Fidelity Capital Market Assumptions 2026

Fidelity forecasts — a year from US equities over the next decade, in line with the median of the 14 houses we track.

Source: Capital Market Assumptions, 20-year horizon (2025-2044). All figures are 10-year nominal geometric returns in USD. Reviewed 16 August 2026.

Read Fidelity’s own assumptions ↗

Asset class	Fidelity	Median of 14	Difference
US equities	—	6.0%	—
International developed	—	7.2%	—
Emerging markets	—	7.7%	—
US aggregate bonds	—	4.7%	—

Forecasts over twenty years rather than ten, which is why no figure appears here. Morningstar, which surveys the same houses, says so plainly: Fidelity's assumptions 'employ a 20-year horizon and therefore can't be stacked up neatly against the 10-year returns from other firms'. Its 5.8% nominal US equity number is a twenty-year figure and comparing it to a ten-year one would flatter whichever side of the argument you wanted. Fidelity International publishes a separate ten-year set, dated 31 March 2026, but does not release the figures in a form that can be checked.

Where Fidelity sits among the 14

Fidelity publishes a range rather than a point estimate, so it does not appear in the ranking below.

House	US equities
Research Affiliates	3.1%
Invesco	4.7%
BlackRock	5.2%
PGIM	5.2%
Morningstar	5.3%
Verus	5.4%
Schwab	5.9%
Amundi	6.1%
AQR	6.3%
Meketa	6.4%
J.P. Morgan	6.7%
Northern Trust	6.8%
Callan	7.3%
BNY Mellon	7.6%

For the full comparison across all four asset classes, where the houses agree and why they disagree, see what 16 firms expect from the next decade.

Build a portfolio on these numbers

Portfolio Lab optimizes across 42 asset classes on J.P. Morgan's 2026 assumptions, and lets you override any expected return with a different house's view to see how much the answer actually moves.

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The other houses

Each firm publishes its own numbers on its own schedule, and they disagree by more than most people expect. The same four asset classes, forecast by everyone else who publishes a view.

Figures as published by Fidelity in Capital Market Assumptions, 20-year horizon (2025-2044), reviewed 16 August 2026 and re-checked when each house issues a new edition. Portfolio Lab is not affiliated with Fidelity. This is analysis, not investment advice.