Fidelity Capital Market Assumptions 2026

Fidelity publishes long-horizon return forecasts but no single figure for US equities; this comparison includes no comparable point estimate. Follow the source for its full forecasts and horizon.

Source: Capital Market Assumptions, 20-year horizon (2025-2044). Figures are annual percentages. Source horizons, currencies and index definitions differ; a missing table cell means no comparable point estimate is included here. Page updated 9 September 2026.

Read Fidelity’s own assumptions ↗

Asset class	Fidelity	Survey median	Difference
US equities	n/a	6.3%14 point estimates	n/a
International developed	n/a	7.3%12 point estimates	n/a
Emerging markets	n/a	7.7%14 point estimates	n/a
US aggregate bonds	n/a	4.8%14 point estimates	n/a

Forecasts over twenty years rather than ten, which is why no figure appears here. Morningstar, which surveys the same houses, says so plainly: Fidelity's assumptions 'employ a 20-year horizon and therefore can't be stacked up neatly against the 10-year returns from other firms'. Its 5.8% nominal US equity number is a twenty-year figure and comparing it to a ten-year one would flatter whichever side of the argument you wanted. Fidelity International publishes a separate ten-year set, dated 31 March 2026, but does not release the figures in a form that can be checked.

The survey median compares available point estimates from different editions and benchmarks. It is not a combined probability distribution or a forecast for your portfolio.Read the comparison and download its source-labelled CSV.

Where Fidelity sits among the 14

No comparable US equity point estimate is included for Fidelity. It is excluded from the ranking below.

House	US equities
Research Affiliates	3.1%
Invesco	4.7%
PGIM	5.2%
Morningstar	5.3%
Verus	5.4%
Schwab	5.9%
AQR	6.3%
Meketa	6.4%
Amundi	6.5%
J.P. Morgan	6.7%
Northern Trust	6.8%
Callan	7.3%
BNY Mellon	7.6%
BlackRock	9.0%

For the full comparison across all four asset classes, where the houses agree and why they disagree, see what 18 firms expect from the next decade.

Test the assumptions behind your portfolio

Portfolio Lab covers 57 asset classes with editable return models and published forecasts for comparison. Choose among 5 base currencies, inspect each forecast's building blocks, and test your own portfolio. The app's current models and these dated house publications can give different answers.

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The other houses

Each firm publishes its own numbers on its own schedule, and they disagree by more than most people expect. One page each, plus the Horizon Actuarial survey, which averages what 43 advisors submit privately.

Figures as published by Fidelity in Capital Market Assumptions, 20-year horizon (2025-2044). Page updated 9 September 2026; source dates are shown separately. Portfolio Lab is not affiliated with Fidelity. This is analysis, not investment advice.