Vanguard Capital Market Assumptions 2026
Vanguard forecasts 4.2% to 6.2% a year from US equities over the next decade, published as a probability-weighted range rather than a point estimate.
Source: Vanguard Capital Markets Model, run of 30 June 2026. Figures are annual percentages. Source horizons, currencies and index definitions differ; a missing table cell means no comparable point estimate is included here. Page updated 9 September 2026.
Read Vanguard’s own assumptions ↗| Asset class | Vanguard | Survey median | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| US equities | 4.2-6.2% | 6.3%14 point estimates | n/a |
| International developed | n/a | 7.3%12 point estimates | n/a |
| Emerging markets | n/a | 7.7%14 point estimates | n/a |
| US aggregate bonds | n/a | 4.8%14 point estimates | n/a |
BlackRock vs Vanguard: compare the same ten-year horizon and calculate the difference.
TRY THE PUBLISHED ASSUMPTIONS · NO ACCOUNT NEEDED
What would this return mean for your savings?
Change the house, your starting amount or monthly saving. This illustrates a US equity investment over ten years in US dollars, before inflation, fees and taxes.
Illustrated value after ten years at 4.2% to 6.2% a year
$150,896 to $182,493
You contribute $100,000 in total. Monthly savings are added at month end.
Both published endpoints are shown. Neither is a guaranteed floor or ceiling; no midpoint forecast is invented.
Source edition: Vanguard Capital Markets Model, run of 30 June 2026. Editions, benchmarks and source horizons differ. Applying a quoted rate for ten years is an illustration, not a new forecast from that firm.
How the calculation works
Without added savings: starting amount × (1 + annual return) to the power of ten. With savings, the annual compound rate is converted to its equivalent monthly rate. Each month earns that rate before the next contribution is added. Markets will not follow this smooth path. This is not a simulation, retirement success probability, or forecast of a mixed portfolio.
Your portfolio probably includes more than US equities. In the free app, inspect and change the return assumptions for your own mix, then test the result. These published figures are reference inputs; this illustration does not change your saved portfolio.
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How to read the VCMM range
Vanguard's 22 July update uses a 30 June 2026 model run. The 4.2% to 6.2% US equity range is a ten-year annualised outlook in US dollars. It excludes inflation, taxes and investment expenses. The US equity benchmark is MSCI US Broad Market.
A range is not a guaranteed minimum and maximum. Vanguard's simulations describe uncertain outcomes and may miss extreme events. We preserve the range instead of turning its midpoint into a published point forecast.
The same update reports 4.5% to 6.5% for developed markets outside the US and 2% to 4% for emerging markets. Those ranges are also excluded from this point-estimate median. See Vanguard's full forecast table and model notes.
The survey median compares available point estimates from different editions and benchmarks. It is not a combined probability distribution or a forecast for your portfolio.Read the comparison and download its source-labelled CSV.
Where Vanguard sits among the 14
Vanguard publishes a range rather than a point estimate. It is excluded from the ranking below.
| House | US equities |
|---|---|
| Research Affiliates | 3.1% |
| Invesco | 4.7% |
| PGIM | 5.2% |
| Morningstar | 5.3% |
| Verus | 5.4% |
| Schwab | 5.9% |
| AQR | 6.3% |
| Meketa | 6.4% |
| Amundi | 6.5% |
| J.P. Morgan | 6.7% |
| Northern Trust | 6.8% |
| Callan | 7.3% |
| BNY Mellon | 7.6% |
| BlackRock | 9.0% |
For the full comparison across all four asset classes, where the houses agree and why they disagree, see what 18 firms expect from the next decade.
Test the assumptions behind your portfolio
Portfolio Lab covers 57 asset classes with editable return models and published forecasts for comparison. Choose among 5 base currencies, inspect each forecast's building blocks, and test your own portfolio. The app's current models and these dated house publications can give different answers.
Open the optimizerThe other houses
Each firm publishes its own numbers on its own schedule, and they disagree by more than most people expect. One page each, plus the Horizon Actuarial survey, which averages what 43 advisors submit privately.
Figures as published by Vanguard in Vanguard Capital Markets Model, run of 30 June 2026. Page updated 9 September 2026; source dates are shown separately. Portfolio Lab is not affiliated with Vanguard. This is analysis, not investment advice.