BlackRock vs Vanguard return forecasts
Published and updated 9 September 2026 · 5 minute read
BlackRock's ten-year US equity Starting point is 9.0% a year; Vanguard publishes a 4.2% to 6.2% range. Both use observations from June 2026 in the editions compared here. Their answers differ enough to change a savings illustration substantially.
The useful question is how much your plan depends on choosing one forecast. Start by matching the currency and horizon, keep the source differences visible, and try the figures below with your own savings.
Calculate the difference for my savings ↓Compare the same horizon first
| Published input | BlackRock | Vanguard |
|---|---|---|
| Source edition | August 2026 workbook | 22 July 2026 forecast update |
| Observation / model date | 30 June 2026 | 30 June 2026 |
| Horizon used here | 10 years | 10 years |
| Currency and basis | USD, nominal annualised return | USD, nominal annualised return |
| US equity benchmark | MSCI USA | MSCI US Broad Market |
| Return shown | 9.0% Starting point | 4.2% to 6.2% range |
Sources: BlackRock's workbook and Vanguard's forecast update. These are dated publications, not live market quotes.
Why does another BlackRock page show a different number?
The workbook contains several horizons and scenarios. Its five-year Starting point for US equities is 9.44%, while the ten-year value is 8.97%. Changing the column changes the question. We use the ten-year column here; the calculator uses the public table's rounded one-decimal figure.
BlackRock also supplies alternative scenarios. They are separate views of how the world might develop. We do not assign them probabilities or mix them into a new BlackRock forecast.
TRY THE PUBLISHED ASSUMPTIONS · NO ACCOUNT NEEDED
What would this return mean for your savings?
Change the house, your starting amount or monthly saving. This illustrates a US equity investment over ten years in US dollars, before inflation, fees and taxes.
Illustrated value after ten years at 9.0% a year
$236,736
You contribute $100,000 in total. Monthly savings are added at month end.
Source edition: August 2026 CMA, data as of 30 June 2026; USD, 10-year Starting point. Editions, benchmarks and source horizons differ. Applying a quoted rate for ten years is an illustration, not a new forecast from that firm.
How the calculation works
Without added savings: starting amount × (1 + annual return) to the power of ten. With savings, the annual compound rate is converted to its equivalent monthly rate. Each month earns that rate before the next contribution is added. Markets will not follow this smooth path. This is not a simulation, retirement success probability, or forecast of a mixed portfolio.
Your portfolio probably includes more than US equities. In the free app, inspect and change the return assumptions for your own mix, then test the result. These published figures are reference inputs; this illustration does not change your saved portfolio.
Test the assumptions for my portfolio →Free account. No card. Amounts entered here stay in your browser.
Which forecast should you use?
This comparison does not establish a winner. A more optimistic estimate does not become more reliable because it makes a retirement target easier to reach. Nor does a lower estimate automatically make a better central forecast.
Use the spread to test a decision: if the lower assumption means saving more, retiring later or spending less, is that adjustment manageable? If the plan only works at the highest rate, that dependence deserves attention. The calculation is useful precisely because the outcome changes while your savings stay the same.
A savings illustration is only the first step
Neither line represents a complete personal portfolio. Adding bonds, cash, Bitcoin or other holdings changes both the return assumptions and how the portfolio fluctuates. Withdrawals also make the sequence of good and bad years matter.
Use retirement simulations for uncertain paths, or inspect the return forecast methodology before changing assumptions. Portfolio Lab's own editable models are distinct from the institutional publications on this page.
Questions about the comparison
Why are BlackRock and Vanguard return forecasts different?
They use different models and benchmarks. This comparison uses BlackRock's ten-year USD Starting point for MSCI USA and Vanguard's ten-year US equity range for MSCI US Broad Market. A forecast difference does not establish which model will predict better.
Is Vanguard's forecast range a guaranteed minimum and maximum?
No. It is a published model range, not a guarantee or a limit on what markets can return. We show both endpoints without inventing a published midpoint forecast.
Can I add stock and bond forecasts to get a portfolio compound return?
Not exactly. A weighted average of individual compound returns is not generally the compound return of a rebalanced portfolio. Volatility, correlations and rebalancing matter. The calculator here illustrates US equities alone.
Does the calculator predict how much money I will have?
It shows what a constant annual return would produce with your starting amount and monthly savings. It is an illustration before inflation, fees and taxes, not a probability-based forecast of your final wealth.
Continue with the BlackRock source guide, Vanguard source guide, or the full house comparison and downloadable data.
Educational analysis by Portfolio Lab. No affiliation with or endorsement by either firm. These illustrations are not investment advice or guaranteed outcomes. Source dates above are separate from this page's publication date.