TOOLS / SAFE WITHDRAWAL RATE CALCULATOR

How much can you spend?

A thousand simulated paths for your mix, tested across withdrawal rates and horizons. Choose the share of paths that must retain a positive balance.

FREE · NO SIGNUP · RUNS IN YOUR BROWSER

Your Retirement Setup

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60%
30%
10%

Stocks = MSCI ACWI · Bonds = US Aggregate · Cash = Money Market · 0.5% annual fee · Annual rebalancing

Configure your retirement setup above and click Calculate SWR.

Want deeper retirement analysis?

Portfolio Lab includes 57 asset classes, 5 optimization methods, Monte Carlo fan charts, guardrails spending strategies, and backtesting back to 1926, on the published forecasts of J.P. Morgan, BlackRock, Research Affiliates and AQR, averaged and marked to today's prices.

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Safe withdrawal rate vs perpetual withdrawal rate

The safe withdrawal rate is the highest tested rate meeting your survival target over the selected horizon. It requires a positive terminal balance, which can be much smaller than the starting portfolio.

The capital-preserving rate (PWR) tests a stricter terminal-value condition: at a 95% target, the 5th percentile inflation-adjusted balance approximately equals the starting value. It is calculated separately from the survival heatmap. Both figures use the chosen finite horizon; neither proves that withdrawals can continue forever.

This public tool uses USD return and inflation assumptions. A GBP or EUR plan needs assumptions in that currency, rather than a different currency symbol on the same result.

Questions this page answers

What is a safe withdrawal rate in 2026?

There is no single rate for every portfolio. In this model, at a 95% simulated survival target over 30 years, the highest tested rates are 3.0% for the conservative profile, 3.0% for balanced and 2.5% for aggressive. These use USD assumptions, a 0.5% annual fee and a 0.5 percentage point withdrawal grid. Different inputs change the result.

What is a perpetual withdrawal rate?

The term describes spending intended to preserve capital indefinitely. This calculator's PWR is narrower: it finds a withdrawal rate that approximately preserves the starting portfolio's real value at the selected terminal percentile and horizon. At a 95% target, that is the 5th percentile. A finite simulation does not establish indefinite sustainability.

Is the 4% rule still valid?

The rule grew from historical research by Bengen and the later Trinity Study. It is a starting point, not a guarantee. In this forward-looking model, 4% withdrawals leave the balanced portfolio with a positive balance in 78.4% of simulated 30-year paths. That frequency is conditional on this model and is not a prediction of the proportion of real retirees who will succeed.

Does the safe withdrawal rate calculator work for UK investors?

This public calculator uses US dollars, USD asset assumptions and USD inflation. Entering a pound amount does not convert those assumptions to GBP or model ISA, SIPP and UK tax treatment. Use the full app's GBP edition to test a portfolio with GBP assumptions; account-specific taxes and benefits still need their own treatment.

Keep reading

Forward-looking withdrawal simulations, 2026 →
RESEARCH · MODEL RESULTS AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT
Monte Carlo retirement simulator →
TOOL · THE SAME ENGINE, PATH BY PATH
Bitcoin in a retirement portfolio →
RESEARCH · WHAT A SMALL SLEEVE DOES TO SURVIVAL
Planning an early retirement →
GUIDE · LONG HORIZONS AND PERPETUAL RATES

A rate is one number. The workstation tests it against your actual holdings, with guardrails that cut spending when markets fall instead of hoping one rate holds for thirty years.

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