Head-to-Head Comparisons

Gold futures vs physical gold: is the cash interest an extra return? →

One-on-one comparisons, both of the tools people weigh Portfolio Lab against and of the portfolios themselves. Every portfolio comparison sets the two allocations to the same level of risk before declaring a winner, which is the step most write-ups skip.

BlackRock vs Vanguard return forecasts

Match the source dates, benchmarks and horizons, then calculate what each assumption means for your savings.

Portfolio against portfolio

Forward-looking expected return, risk and Sharpe ratio for each pair, then the same comparison with both levered to matching volatility so neither wins simply by taking more risk.

All-Weather (Dalio) vs Permanent Portfolio (Browne)

Expected, at matched risk: All-Weather (Dalio) ahead by 0.13 points

History disagrees: Permanent Portfolio (Browne) ahead since February 1997

All-Weather or the Permanent Portfolio? Forward-looking expected return, risk and Sharpe for both, plus the matched-risk comparison most write-ups skip.

All-Weather (Dalio) vs 60/40 Classic

Expected, at matched risk: All-Weather (Dalio) ahead by 0.16 points

History agrees: All-Weather (Dalio) ahead since February 1997

Does Ray Dalio's All-Weather beat a plain 60/40? Forward-looking expected return, risk and Sharpe ratio, compared at matched volatility.

Permanent Portfolio (Browne) vs 60/40 Classic

Expected, at matched risk: Level at 10.8% volatility

History disagrees: Permanent Portfolio (Browne) ahead since January 1987

Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio against a standard 60/40: forward-looking expected return, volatility and Sharpe ratio, compared at matched risk.

Swensen (Yale Endowment) vs 60/40 Classic

Expected, at matched risk: Swensen (Yale Endowment) ahead by 0.40 points

History disagrees: 60/40 Classic ahead since November 2006

The Yale endowment model against a plain 60/40: forward-looking return, risk and Sharpe, the matched-risk comparison, and the access problem.

60/40 Classic vs 100% Global Equities

Expected, at matched risk: 60/40 Classic ahead by 0.52 points

History agrees: 60/40 Classic ahead since January 1987

Should you hold 100% equities or a 60/40? Expected return, risk and Sharpe for both, plus the record with the 60/40 levered to the same volatility.

Permanent Portfolio (Browne) vs 100% Global Equities

Expected, at matched risk: Permanent Portfolio (Browne) ahead by 0.45 points

History disagrees: 100% Global Equities ahead since January 1975

Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio against holding only shares: forward-looking expectations and the record since 2000, at matched volatility.

All-Weather (Dalio) vs 100% Global Equities

Expected, at matched risk: All-Weather (Dalio) ahead by 0.77 points

History agrees: All-Weather (Dalio) ahead since February 1997

Ray Dalio's All-Weather against holding only shares: expected return, risk, Sharpe ratio and the record, compared at the same volatility.

Swensen (Yale Endowment) vs Permanent Portfolio (Browne)

Expected, at matched risk: Swensen (Yale Endowment) ahead by 0.46 points

History disagrees: Permanent Portfolio (Browne) ahead since November 2006

The Yale endowment model against Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio: forward-looking expectations and the record since 2006, compared at matched risk.

The short version

Historical analysis shows how an allocation behaved in a particular period. Forward planning also needs assumptions about future returns and risk. Portfolio Lab uses current benchmark models and editable assumptions, with published institutional forecasts available as reference comparisons. Both approaches have uncertainty. Explore the forecasts and their sources, or read how the app calculates each return estimate.

Where the alternatives win: Portfolio Visualizer has far deeper historical backtesting and factor analysis. Portfolio Charts is better for building intuition about how allocations behave over decades. If those are what you need, use those.

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