METHODOLOGY
How we calculate return forecasts
Assumptions is the home for the forecasts used by your Portfolio Lab workstation. The default is Current benchmark models: calculations using dated market observations and explicit modelling assumptions. Published investment-house forecasts remain available as separate references.
The active forecast models
Equity models project income and per-share growth, then value the holding at an assumed terminal multiple. Bond models combine current yield, reinvestment, changes in yields and, where relevant, credit losses. Cash follows a dated policy-rate path. Listed alternatives use income or matched market exposures; private-market models use cash flows, financing, fees and identified institutional assumptions. Gold, broad commodities and Bitcoin use explicitly labelled structural or scenario assumptions.
These methods answer different economic questions. Their common output is an annual geometric planning rate. A conditional cash-flow projection is not proof of an accurately estimated expected outcome. Model uncertainty, source coverage and benchmark differences remain material.
Changing assumptions
In Assumptions, open an asset’s calculation to inspect the inputs, source dates and method. Supported controls include equity growth and terminal valuation, bond yield changes and credit losses, and selected private-market, gold and commodity assumptions. You can also enter a final return directly. A direct return override takes precedence; editing that asset’s building blocks removes its direct override.
Blank model fields follow the Portfolio Lab default when inputs refresh. Filled fields are your assumptions and remain saved on this browser. Use the asset reset to restore its model inputs and return, or reset all forecasts to restore the central ten-year model. The default and currently used return are shown separately.
The active forecasts feed portfolio analytics, optimization, simulations and reports through the same workstation assumptions. Existing calculated results need a rerun after a change. Historical backtests still use historical returns. Lower and upper sensitivities are hypothetical paths, not confidence intervals. If your planning period differs from the forecast horizon, the chosen annual forecast is held constant over that planning period.
Observed data are kept separate from user assumptions. Leverage and factor exposures are not offered as independent return-only controls because changing them requires a matching risk model. The CAPE research model remains a separate valuation experiment; it does not silently replace your workstation forecasts.
What the numbers mean
Geometric return describes compound growth; the arithmetic mean describes an average one-year return. Portfolio Lab uses a lognormal moment approximation to move between these using the asset’s economic volatility. A cash-flow planning rate does not receive a second volatility deduction. Simulation generates fluctuating returns from the arithmetic inputs, and portfolio growth reflects the full covariance matrix.
Return edits do not recalibrate volatility or correlations. Currency hedges use the available currency-specific financing model and paired risk inputs. When a required source or hedge model is unavailable, the app flags the gap rather than presenting a retained reference as a newly calculated forecast. Passing numerical checks cannot certify that economic assumptions predict the future.
Sources, dates and reference forecasts
Market observations and slower-moving research assumptions have different update schedules. Each model enforces its own date and coverage checks. A recent calculation date does not make an old observation fresh. The asset sections below come from the same model functions used in the workstation; they show default central ten-year methods, not your saved edits.
J.P. Morgan, BlackRock, Research Affiliates and AQR forecasts are labelled comparisons, with differences in coverage, currency, fees and horizons. Their reference adjustments are separate from the current benchmark models. Portfolio Lab’s calculations are our implementations; citing institutional research does not mean those institutions endorse the tool.
Every asset class
91 distinct catalogue rows across the five investing currencies. Expand the relevant currency beneath an asset for its exact method, dates and sources. Availability and hedge treatment can differ by currency. A reference-only row is explicitly identified.
US Large Cap
USD · current model
S&P 500. Broad US large-cap growth assumption; the published group uses MSCI USA, while cash flows here use S&P 500. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- fundamentals Period End:
- 2026-06-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
S&P 500. Broad US large-cap growth assumption; the published group uses MSCI USA, while cash flows here use S&P 500. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- fundamentals Period End:
- 2026-06-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
S&P 500. Broad US large-cap growth assumption; the published group uses MSCI USA, while cash flows here use S&P 500. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- fundamentals Period End:
- 2026-06-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
S&P 500. Broad US large-cap growth assumption; the published group uses MSCI USA, while cash flows here use S&P 500. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- fundamentals Period End:
- 2026-06-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
S&P 500. Broad US large-cap growth assumption; the published group uses MSCI USA, while cash flows here use S&P 500. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- fundamentals Period End:
- 2026-06-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
US Mid Cap
USD · current model
Russell Midcap Index. Broad US growth prior; no benchmark-specific midcap growth estimate or extra size premium is claimed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
Russell Midcap Index. Broad US growth prior; no benchmark-specific midcap growth estimate or extra size premium is claimed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
Russell Midcap Index. Broad US growth prior; no benchmark-specific midcap growth estimate or extra size premium is claimed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
Russell Midcap Index. Broad US growth prior; no benchmark-specific midcap growth estimate or extra size premium is claimed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
Russell Midcap Index. Broad US growth prior; no benchmark-specific midcap growth estimate or extra size premium is claimed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
US Value Factor
USD · current model
JP Morgan US Value Factor Index. Broad US growth prior; no extra value-factor premium is added. This is not a measured growth forecast for the JPM factor index. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
JP Morgan US Value Factor Index. Broad US growth prior; no extra value-factor premium is added. This is not a measured growth forecast for the JPM factor index. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
JP Morgan US Value Factor Index. Broad US growth prior; no extra value-factor premium is added. This is not a measured growth forecast for the JPM factor index. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
JP Morgan US Value Factor Index. Broad US growth prior; no extra value-factor premium is added. This is not a measured growth forecast for the JPM factor index. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
JP Morgan US Value Factor Index. Broad US growth prior; no extra value-factor premium is added. This is not a measured growth forecast for the JPM factor index. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
US Small Cap
USD · current model
Russell 2000 Index. US small-cap growth assumption from MSCI small caps, used as a related-market prior for Russell 2000. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
Russell 2000 Index. US small-cap growth assumption from MSCI small caps, used as a related-market prior for Russell 2000. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
Russell 2000 Index. US small-cap growth assumption from MSCI small caps, used as a related-market prior for Russell 2000. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
Russell 2000 Index. US small-cap growth assumption from MSCI small caps, used as a related-market prior for Russell 2000. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
Russell 2000 Index. US small-cap growth assumption from MSCI small caps, used as a related-market prior for Russell 2000. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
Euro Area Large Cap
USD · current model
MSCI EMU Index. Euro-area growth prior; the source's five-country aggregation differs from MSCI EMU. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI EMU Index. Euro-area growth prior; the source's five-country aggregation differs from MSCI EMU. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI EMU Index. Euro-area growth prior; the source's five-country aggregation differs from MSCI EMU. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI EMU Index. Euro-area growth prior; the source's five-country aggregation differs from MSCI EMU. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI EMU Index. Euro-area growth prior; the source's five-country aggregation differs from MSCI EMU. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
UK Large Cap
USD · current model
MSCI United Kingdom Index. UK market growth assumption. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI United Kingdom Index. UK market growth assumption. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI United Kingdom Index. UK market growth assumption. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI United Kingdom Index. UK market growth assumption. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI United Kingdom Index. UK market growth assumption. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
Japanese Equity
USD · current model
MSCI Japan Index. Japanese market growth assumption. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI Japan Index. Japanese market growth assumption. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI Japan Index. Japanese market growth assumption. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI Japan Index. Japanese market growth assumption. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI Japan Index. Japanese market growth assumption. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
AC Asia ex-Japan
USD · current model
MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index. Broad emerging-market growth prior for this emerging-heavy Asian basket; developed Asian constituents are not separately calibrated. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index. Broad emerging-market growth prior for this emerging-heavy Asian basket; developed Asian constituents are not separately calibrated. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index. Broad emerging-market growth prior for this emerging-heavy Asian basket; developed Asian constituents are not separately calibrated. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index. Broad emerging-market growth prior for this emerging-heavy Asian basket; developed Asian constituents are not separately calibrated. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index. Broad emerging-market growth prior for this emerging-heavy Asian basket; developed Asian constituents are not separately calibrated. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
Emerging Markets Equity
USD · current model
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index. Emerging-market growth assumption; the provider uses its GDP-based approach, not a measured buyback adjustment. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index. Emerging-market growth assumption; the provider uses its GDP-based approach, not a measured buyback adjustment. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index. Emerging-market growth assumption; the provider uses its GDP-based approach, not a measured buyback adjustment. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index. Emerging-market growth assumption; the provider uses its GDP-based approach, not a measured buyback adjustment. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index. Emerging-market growth assumption; the provider uses its GDP-based approach, not a measured buyback adjustment. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
Chinese Domestic Equity
USD · current model
CSI 300. China country growth prior; the source's broad MSCI China universe differs from domestic CSI 300. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
CSI 300. China country growth prior; the source's broad MSCI China universe differs from domestic CSI 300. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
CSI 300. China country growth prior; the source's broad MSCI China universe differs from domestic CSI 300. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
CSI 300. China country growth prior; the source's broad MSCI China universe differs from domestic CSI 300. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
CSI 300. China country growth prior; the source's broad MSCI China universe differs from domestic CSI 300. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
Hong Kong Equity
USD · current model
MSCI Hong Kong Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior, not a measured Hong Kong earnings forecast. Hong Kong-listed domestic index coverage is distinct from MSCI China; no China GDP growth is substituted. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI Hong Kong Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior, not a measured Hong Kong earnings forecast. Hong Kong-listed domestic index coverage is distinct from MSCI China; no China GDP growth is substituted. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI Hong Kong Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior, not a measured Hong Kong earnings forecast. Hong Kong-listed domestic index coverage is distinct from MSCI China; no China GDP growth is substituted. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI Hong Kong Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior, not a measured Hong Kong earnings forecast. Hong Kong-listed domestic index coverage is distinct from MSCI China; no China GDP growth is substituted. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI Hong Kong Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior, not a measured Hong Kong earnings forecast. Hong Kong-listed domestic index coverage is distinct from MSCI China; no China GDP growth is substituted. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EAFE Equity
USD · current model
MSCI EAFE Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior. EAFE excludes Canada while the source group includes it; this related-market assumption is not benchmark-specific. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI EAFE Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior. EAFE excludes Canada while the source group includes it; this related-market assumption is not benchmark-specific. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI EAFE Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior. EAFE excludes Canada while the source group includes it; this related-market assumption is not benchmark-specific. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI EAFE Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior. EAFE excludes Canada while the source group includes it; this related-market assumption is not benchmark-specific. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI EAFE Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior. EAFE excludes Canada while the source group includes it; this related-market assumption is not benchmark-specific. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
AC World Equity
USD · current model
MSCI ACWI Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior applied to the all-country benchmark. Emerging-market earnings growth is not separately calibrated; no emerging-market premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI ACWI Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior applied to the all-country benchmark. Emerging-market earnings growth is not separately calibrated; no emerging-market premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI ACWI Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior applied to the all-country benchmark. Emerging-market earnings growth is not separately calibrated; no emerging-market premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI ACWI Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior applied to the all-country benchmark. Emerging-market earnings growth is not separately calibrated; no emerging-market premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI ACWI Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior applied to the all-country benchmark. Emerging-market earnings growth is not separately calibrated; no emerging-market premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
US Large Value
USD · current model
Russell 1000 Value Index. Broad US large-cap structural growth prior, not today's constituents' reported five-year growth. Reconstitution changes the style basket; no persistent value alpha or valuation convergence is assumed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
Russell 1000 Value Index. Broad US large-cap structural growth prior, not today's constituents' reported five-year growth. Reconstitution changes the style basket; no persistent value alpha or valuation convergence is assumed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
Russell 1000 Value Index. Broad US large-cap structural growth prior, not today's constituents' reported five-year growth. Reconstitution changes the style basket; no persistent value alpha or valuation convergence is assumed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
Russell 1000 Value Index. Broad US large-cap structural growth prior, not today's constituents' reported five-year growth. Reconstitution changes the style basket; no persistent value alpha or valuation convergence is assumed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
Russell 1000 Value Index. Broad US large-cap structural growth prior, not today's constituents' reported five-year growth. Reconstitution changes the style basket; no persistent value alpha or valuation convergence is assumed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
US Large Growth
USD · current model
Russell 1000 Growth Index. Broad US large-cap structural growth prior. Growth-stock classifications do not justify extrapolating today's unusually fast constituent earnings growth for a decade. No style alpha is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
Russell 1000 Growth Index. Broad US large-cap structural growth prior. Growth-stock classifications do not justify extrapolating today's unusually fast constituent earnings growth for a decade. No style alpha is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
Russell 1000 Growth Index. Broad US large-cap structural growth prior. Growth-stock classifications do not justify extrapolating today's unusually fast constituent earnings growth for a decade. No style alpha is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
Russell 1000 Growth Index. Broad US large-cap structural growth prior. Growth-stock classifications do not justify extrapolating today's unusually fast constituent earnings growth for a decade. No style alpha is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
Russell 1000 Growth Index. Broad US large-cap structural growth prior. Growth-stock classifications do not justify extrapolating today's unusually fast constituent earnings growth for a decade. No style alpha is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
US Small Value
USD · current model
Russell 2000 Value Index. Related US small-cap structural growth prior. Russell style reconstitution and migration are not separately forecast; no extra value or size premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
Russell 2000 Value Index. Related US small-cap structural growth prior. Russell style reconstitution and migration are not separately forecast; no extra value or size premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
Russell 2000 Value Index. Related US small-cap structural growth prior. Russell style reconstitution and migration are not separately forecast; no extra value or size premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
Russell 2000 Value Index. Related US small-cap structural growth prior. Russell style reconstitution and migration are not separately forecast; no extra value or size premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
Russell 2000 Value Index. Related US small-cap structural growth prior. Russell style reconstitution and migration are not separately forecast; no extra value or size premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
US Small Growth
USD · current model
Russell 2000 Growth Index. Related US small-cap structural growth prior. High reported growth among surviving profitable constituents is not used as whole-index forward growth; no extra style premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
Russell 2000 Growth Index. Related US small-cap structural growth prior. High reported growth among surviving profitable constituents is not used as whole-index forward growth; no extra style premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
Russell 2000 Growth Index. Related US small-cap structural growth prior. High reported growth among surviving profitable constituents is not used as whole-index forward growth; no extra style premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
Russell 2000 Growth Index. Related US small-cap structural growth prior. High reported growth among surviving profitable constituents is not used as whole-index forward growth; no extra style premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
Russell 2000 Growth Index. Related US small-cap structural growth prior. High reported growth among surviving profitable constituents is not used as whole-index forward growth; no extra style premium is added. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
Dev ex US Large Value
USD · current model
MSCI World ex USA Value Index. Developed ex-US growth prior for MSCI World ex USA Value (large and mid caps, including Canada). No extra value premium or convergence to the growth index's multiple is assumed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI World ex USA Value Index. Developed ex-US growth prior for MSCI World ex USA Value (large and mid caps, including Canada). No extra value premium or convergence to the growth index's multiple is assumed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI World ex USA Value Index. Developed ex-US growth prior for MSCI World ex USA Value (large and mid caps, including Canada). No extra value premium or convergence to the growth index's multiple is assumed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI World ex USA Value Index. Developed ex-US growth prior for MSCI World ex USA Value (large and mid caps, including Canada). No extra value premium or convergence to the growth index's multiple is assumed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI World ex USA Value Index. Developed ex-US growth prior for MSCI World ex USA Value (large and mid caps, including Canada). No extra value premium or convergence to the growth index's multiple is assumed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
Dev ex US Large Growth
USD · current model
MSCI World ex USA Growth Index. Developed ex-US growth prior for MSCI World ex USA Growth (large and mid caps, including Canada). Constituent growth is not extrapolated through future style reconstitution. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI World ex USA Growth Index. Developed ex-US growth prior for MSCI World ex USA Growth (large and mid caps, including Canada). Constituent growth is not extrapolated through future style reconstitution. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI World ex USA Growth Index. Developed ex-US growth prior for MSCI World ex USA Growth (large and mid caps, including Canada). Constituent growth is not extrapolated through future style reconstitution. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI World ex USA Growth Index. Developed ex-US growth prior for MSCI World ex USA Growth (large and mid caps, including Canada). Constituent growth is not extrapolated through future style reconstitution. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI World ex USA Growth Index. Developed ex-US growth prior for MSCI World ex USA Growth (large and mid caps, including Canada). Constituent growth is not extrapolated through future style reconstitution. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
Dev ex US Small Value
USD · current model
MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Value Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior; no separately calibrated small-value growth or premium is claimed. Income is trailing gross index distributions recovered from matched daily price and gross-return series, not indicated yield or the different value-weighted index. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Value Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior; no separately calibrated small-value growth or premium is claimed. Income is trailing gross index distributions recovered from matched daily price and gross-return series, not indicated yield or the different value-weighted index. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Value Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior; no separately calibrated small-value growth or premium is claimed. Income is trailing gross index distributions recovered from matched daily price and gross-return series, not indicated yield or the different value-weighted index. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Value Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior; no separately calibrated small-value growth or premium is claimed. Income is trailing gross index distributions recovered from matched daily price and gross-return series, not indicated yield or the different value-weighted index. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Value Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior; no separately calibrated small-value growth or premium is claimed. Income is trailing gross index distributions recovered from matched daily price and gross-return series, not indicated yield or the different value-weighted index. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
Dev ex US Small Growth
USD · current model
MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Growth Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior, including Canada; no small-growth premium or extrapolation of constituent growth through future reconstitution. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Growth Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior, including Canada; no small-growth premium or extrapolation of constituent growth through future reconstitution. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Growth Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior, including Canada; no small-growth premium or extrapolation of constituent growth through future reconstitution. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Growth Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior, including Canada; no small-growth premium or extrapolation of constituent growth through future reconstitution. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Growth Index. Developed ex-US structural growth prior, including Canada; no small-growth premium or extrapolation of constituent growth through future reconstitution. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
World Large Value
USD · current model
MSCI World Value Index. Developed-world structural growth prior. The benchmark includes large and mid caps; no convergence to the growth index multiple or extra value premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI World Value Index. Developed-world structural growth prior. The benchmark includes large and mid caps; no convergence to the growth index multiple or extra value premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI World Value Index. Developed-world structural growth prior. The benchmark includes large and mid caps; no convergence to the growth index multiple or extra value premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI World Value Index. Developed-world structural growth prior. The benchmark includes large and mid caps; no convergence to the growth index multiple or extra value premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI World Value Index. Developed-world structural growth prior. The benchmark includes large and mid caps; no convergence to the growth index multiple or extra value premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
World Large Growth
USD · current model
MSCI World Growth Index. Developed-world structural growth prior for large and mid caps. Current growth classifications do not imply permanently faster index earnings growth. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI World Growth Index. Developed-world structural growth prior for large and mid caps. Current growth classifications do not imply permanently faster index earnings growth. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI World Growth Index. Developed-world structural growth prior for large and mid caps. Current growth classifications do not imply permanently faster index earnings growth. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI World Growth Index. Developed-world structural growth prior for large and mid caps. Current growth classifications do not imply permanently faster index earnings growth. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI World Growth Index. Developed-world structural growth prior for large and mid caps. Current growth classifications do not imply permanently faster index earnings growth. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
World Small Value
USD · current model
MSCI World Small Cap Value Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior; small-value growth, migration and factor premiums are not separately calibrated. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI World Small Cap Value Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior; small-value growth, migration and factor premiums are not separately calibrated. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI World Small Cap Value Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior; small-value growth, migration and factor premiums are not separately calibrated. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI World Small Cap Value Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior; small-value growth, migration and factor premiums are not separately calibrated. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI World Small Cap Value Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior; small-value growth, migration and factor premiums are not separately calibrated. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
World Small Growth
USD · current model
MSCI World Small Cap Growth Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior; no permanent small-growth premium or survivor-only earnings extrapolation. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI World Small Cap Growth Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior; no permanent small-growth premium or survivor-only earnings extrapolation. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI World Small Cap Growth Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior; no permanent small-growth premium or survivor-only earnings extrapolation. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI World Small Cap Growth Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior; no permanent small-growth premium or survivor-only earnings extrapolation. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI World Small Cap Growth Index. Broad developed-world structural growth prior; no permanent small-growth premium or survivor-only earnings extrapolation. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EM Value
USD · current model
MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index. Emerging-market GDP-based structural growth prior, not a measured style-specific EPS forecast. Net issuance and style migration may differ; no additional buyback or value premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index. Emerging-market GDP-based structural growth prior, not a measured style-specific EPS forecast. Net issuance and style migration may differ; no additional buyback or value premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index. Emerging-market GDP-based structural growth prior, not a measured style-specific EPS forecast. Net issuance and style migration may differ; no additional buyback or value premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index. Emerging-market GDP-based structural growth prior, not a measured style-specific EPS forecast. Net issuance and style migration may differ; no additional buyback or value premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index. Emerging-market GDP-based structural growth prior, not a measured style-specific EPS forecast. Net issuance and style migration may differ; no additional buyback or value premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EM Growth
USD · current model
MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index. Emerging-market GDP-based structural growth prior. Fast-growing constituents and style reconstitution do not establish a permanent index growth premium; no separate buyback yield. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
GBP · current model
MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index. Emerging-market GDP-based structural growth prior. Fast-growing constituents and style reconstitution do not establish a permanent index growth premium; no separate buyback yield. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index. Emerging-market GDP-based structural growth prior. Fast-growing constituents and style reconstitution do not establish a permanent index growth premium; no separate buyback yield. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index. Emerging-market GDP-based structural growth prior. Fast-growing constituents and style reconstitution do not establish a permanent index growth premium; no separate buyback yield. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
ZAR · current model
MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index. Emerging-market GDP-based structural growth prior. Fast-growing constituents and style reconstitution do not establish a permanent index growth premium; no separate buyback yield. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
US Intermediate Treasuries
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IEF portfolio yield 5.27% and duration 6.85 years, observed 2026-10-05. ICE US Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index; intermediate-maturity proxy, consistent with the app's IEF historical proxy. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.5 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates for every underlying currency: no predicted FX gain or house FX adjustment. Rate scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds or currency stress tests.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IEF portfolio yield 5.27% and duration 6.85 years, observed 2026-10-05. ICE US Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index; intermediate-maturity proxy, consistent with the app's IEF historical proxy. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.5 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates for every underlying currency: no predicted FX gain or house FX adjustment. Rate scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds or currency stress tests.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IEF portfolio yield 5.27% and duration 6.85 years, observed 2026-10-05. ICE US Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index; intermediate-maturity proxy, consistent with the app's IEF historical proxy. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.5 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates for every underlying currency: no predicted FX gain or house FX adjustment. Rate scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds or currency stress tests.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
IEF portfolio yield 5.27% and duration 6.85 years, observed 2026-10-05. ICE US Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index; intermediate-maturity proxy, consistent with the app's IEF historical proxy. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.5 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. CAD hedge: monthly notional reset; covered-interest-parity proxy using CORRA 2.29% (ACT/365) and SOFR 3.89% (ACT/360), common observation 2026-10-05. Rates held constant over the horizon; not a forward-market prediction. 5 bp annual dealing allowance is a modelling assumption, not a broker quote. No observed cross-currency basis; imperfect hedging and future rate differences remain risks.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
IEF portfolio yield 5.27% and duration 6.85 years, observed 2026-10-05. ICE US Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index; intermediate-maturity proxy, consistent with the app's IEF historical proxy. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.5 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. ZAR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. ZAR ZARONIA 7.097% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
US Long Treasuries
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. TLT portfolio yield 5.72% and duration 14.63 years, observed 2026-10-05. ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index; long-maturity Treasury proxy. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.2 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates for every underlying currency: no predicted FX gain or house FX adjustment. Rate scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds or currency stress tests.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. TLT portfolio yield 5.72% and duration 14.63 years, observed 2026-10-05. ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index; long-maturity Treasury proxy. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.2 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates for every underlying currency: no predicted FX gain or house FX adjustment. Rate scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds or currency stress tests.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. TLT portfolio yield 5.72% and duration 14.63 years, observed 2026-10-05. ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index; long-maturity Treasury proxy. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.2 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates for every underlying currency: no predicted FX gain or house FX adjustment. Rate scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds or currency stress tests.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. TLT portfolio yield 5.72% and duration 14.63 years, observed 2026-10-05. ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index; long-maturity Treasury proxy. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.2 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates for every underlying currency: no predicted FX gain or house FX adjustment. Rate scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds or currency stress tests.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
TLT portfolio yield 5.72% and duration 14.63 years, observed 2026-10-05. ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index; long-maturity Treasury proxy. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.2 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. ZAR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. ZAR ZARONIA 7.097% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
World Govt Bonds
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGLO portfolio yield 4.64% and duration 6.24 years, observed 2026-10-05. FTSE G7 Government Bond Index; G7 developed-sovereign proxy, not all countries in the wider world-government universe; unhedged currency basket. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.5 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates for every underlying currency: no predicted FX gain or house FX adjustment. Rate scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds or currency stress tests.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGLO portfolio yield 4.64% and duration 6.24 years, observed 2026-10-05. FTSE G7 Government Bond Index; G7 developed-sovereign proxy, not all countries in the wider world-government universe; unhedged currency basket. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.5 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates for every underlying currency: no predicted FX gain or house FX adjustment. Rate scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds or currency stress tests.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGLO portfolio yield 4.64% and duration 6.24 years, observed 2026-10-05. FTSE G7 Government Bond Index; G7 developed-sovereign proxy, not all countries in the wider world-government universe; unhedged currency basket. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.5 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates for every underlying currency: no predicted FX gain or house FX adjustment. Rate scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds or currency stress tests.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGLO portfolio yield 4.64% and duration 6.24 years, observed 2026-10-05. FTSE G7 Government Bond Index; G7 developed-sovereign proxy, not all countries in the wider world-government universe; unhedged currency basket. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.5 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates for every underlying currency: no predicted FX gain or house FX adjustment. Rate scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds or currency stress tests.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGLO portfolio yield 4.64% and duration 6.24 years, observed 2026-10-05. FTSE G7 Government Bond Index; G7 developed-sovereign proxy, not all countries in the wider world-government universe; unhedged currency basket. Flat yield base; monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing under gradual +/-1.5 percentage-point parallel yield shifts. Yield is an annual carry approximation, not an exact bond cash-flow IRR. No assumed roll-down, convexity bonus or default loss; sovereign default and nonparallel curve risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates for every underlying currency: no predicted FX gain or house FX adjustment. Rate scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds or currency stress tests.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
US IG Corporate Bonds
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. LQD: US dollar investment-grade corporate bonds; iBoxx USD liquid corporate proxy. Yield to worst 6.220% and effective duration 7.582 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.083%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.050%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
LQD: US dollar investment-grade corporate bonds; iBoxx USD liquid corporate proxy. Yield to worst 6.220% and effective duration 7.582 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.083%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.050%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. GBP currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. GBP SONIA 3.7317% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-02); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
LQD: US dollar investment-grade corporate bonds; iBoxx USD liquid corporate proxy. Yield to worst 6.220% and effective duration 7.582 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.083%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.050%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. EUR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. EUR ESTR 2.438% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. LQD: US dollar investment-grade corporate bonds; iBoxx USD liquid corporate proxy. Yield to worst 6.220% and effective duration 7.582 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.083%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.050%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
LQD: US dollar investment-grade corporate bonds; iBoxx USD liquid corporate proxy. Yield to worst 6.220% and effective duration 7.582 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.083%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.050%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. ZAR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. ZAR ZARONIA 7.097% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
US High Yield Bonds
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. HYG: US dollar high-yield corporate bonds; iBoxx USD liquid high-yield proxy. Yield to worst 7.769% and effective duration 3.285 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 3.283%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 1.956%. 0.716% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
HYG: US dollar high-yield corporate bonds; iBoxx USD liquid high-yield proxy. Yield to worst 7.769% and effective duration 3.285 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 3.283%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 1.956%. 0.716% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. GBP currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. GBP SONIA 3.7317% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-02); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
HYG: US dollar high-yield corporate bonds; iBoxx USD liquid high-yield proxy. Yield to worst 7.769% and effective duration 3.285 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 3.283%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 1.956%. 0.716% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. EUR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. EUR ESTR 2.438% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
HYG: US dollar high-yield corporate bonds; iBoxx USD liquid high-yield proxy. Yield to worst 7.769% and effective duration 3.285 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 3.283%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 1.956%. 0.716% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. CAD currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. CAD CORRA 2.29% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
HYG: US dollar high-yield corporate bonds; iBoxx USD liquid high-yield proxy. Yield to worst 7.769% and effective duration 3.285 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 3.283%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 1.956%. 0.716% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. ZAR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. ZAR ZARONIA 7.097% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EM Sovereign Debt
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. EMB: US dollar emerging-market sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt; J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Core proxy. Yield to worst 7.243% and effective duration 6.275 years, observed 2026-10-02; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1975 to 2025 foreign-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 1.714%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 1.025%. 0.363% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
GBP · current model
EMB: US dollar emerging-market sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt; J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Core proxy. Yield to worst 7.243% and effective duration 6.275 years, observed 2026-10-02; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1975 to 2025 foreign-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 1.714%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 1.025%. 0.363% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. GBP currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. GBP SONIA 3.7317% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-02); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
EUR · current model
EMB: US dollar emerging-market sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt; J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Core proxy. Yield to worst 7.243% and effective duration 6.275 years, observed 2026-10-02; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1975 to 2025 foreign-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 1.714%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 1.025%. 0.363% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. EUR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. EUR ESTR 2.438% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
CAD · current model
EMB: US dollar emerging-market sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt; J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Core proxy. Yield to worst 7.243% and effective duration 6.275 years, observed 2026-10-02; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1975 to 2025 foreign-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 1.714%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 1.025%. 0.363% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. CAD currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. CAD CORRA 2.29% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
ZAR · current model
EMB: US dollar emerging-market sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt; J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Core proxy. Yield to worst 7.243% and effective duration 6.275 years, observed 2026-10-02; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1975 to 2025 foreign-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 1.714%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 1.025%. 0.363% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. ZAR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. ZAR ZARONIA 7.097% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
EM Local Currency Debt
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. LEMB: Emerging-market sovereign bonds in their actual local currencies; J.P. Morgan GBI-EM 15% cap/4% floor proxy. Yield to worst 7.514% and effective duration 5.203 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1993 to 2025 local-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.163%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.098%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: PYG 4.0%, UYU 4.1%, RSD 3.9%, DOP 4.0%, TRY 4.1%, BRL 4.5%, PEN 4.0%, CLP 4.0%, ZAR 4.0%, COP 4.1%, UZS 0.5%, MXN 5.3%, HUF 3.9%, PLN 4.4%, INR 8.9%, CNY 14.6%, CZK 3.9%, RON 3.9%, IDR 4.8%, THB 4.2%, MYR 4.9%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. LEMB: Emerging-market sovereign bonds in their actual local currencies; J.P. Morgan GBI-EM 15% cap/4% floor proxy. Yield to worst 7.514% and effective duration 5.203 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1993 to 2025 local-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.163%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.098%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: PYG 4.0%, UYU 4.1%, RSD 3.9%, DOP 4.0%, TRY 4.1%, BRL 4.5%, PEN 4.0%, CLP 4.0%, ZAR 4.0%, COP 4.1%, UZS 0.5%, MXN 5.3%, HUF 3.9%, PLN 4.4%, INR 8.9%, CNY 14.6%, CZK 3.9%, RON 3.9%, IDR 4.8%, THB 4.2%, MYR 4.9%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. LEMB: Emerging-market sovereign bonds in their actual local currencies; J.P. Morgan GBI-EM 15% cap/4% floor proxy. Yield to worst 7.514% and effective duration 5.203 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1993 to 2025 local-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.163%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.098%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: PYG 4.0%, UYU 4.1%, RSD 3.9%, DOP 4.0%, TRY 4.1%, BRL 4.5%, PEN 4.0%, CLP 4.0%, ZAR 4.0%, COP 4.1%, UZS 0.5%, MXN 5.3%, HUF 3.9%, PLN 4.4%, INR 8.9%, CNY 14.6%, CZK 3.9%, RON 3.9%, IDR 4.8%, THB 4.2%, MYR 4.9%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. LEMB: Emerging-market sovereign bonds in their actual local currencies; J.P. Morgan GBI-EM 15% cap/4% floor proxy. Yield to worst 7.514% and effective duration 5.203 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1993 to 2025 local-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.163%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.098%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: PYG 4.0%, UYU 4.1%, RSD 3.9%, DOP 4.0%, TRY 4.1%, BRL 4.5%, PEN 4.0%, CLP 4.0%, ZAR 4.0%, COP 4.1%, UZS 0.5%, MXN 5.3%, HUF 3.9%, PLN 4.4%, INR 8.9%, CNY 14.6%, CZK 3.9%, RON 3.9%, IDR 4.8%, THB 4.2%, MYR 4.9%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. LEMB: Emerging-market sovereign bonds in their actual local currencies; J.P. Morgan GBI-EM 15% cap/4% floor proxy. Yield to worst 7.514% and effective duration 5.203 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1993 to 2025 local-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.163%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.098%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: PYG 4.0%, UYU 4.1%, RSD 3.9%, DOP 4.0%, TRY 4.1%, BRL 4.5%, PEN 4.0%, CLP 4.0%, ZAR 4.0%, COP 4.1%, UZS 0.5%, MXN 5.3%, HUF 3.9%, PLN 4.4%, INR 8.9%, CNY 14.6%, CZK 3.9%, RON 3.9%, IDR 4.8%, THB 4.2%, MYR 4.9%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
US Muni 1-15 Yr
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. TAXI: ICE intermediate tax-exempt investment-grade municipals; proxy for the app's 1-15-year municipal blend. Yield to worst 4.050% and effective duration 4.770 years, observed 2026-10-05; issuer portfolio yield to worst. 0.05% annual IG municipal default planning allowance; a conservative model assumption, not a measured current fund default probability. Default prior 0.050%/year; assumed recovery 50%; annual performing credit loss 0.025%. Issuer aggregate: individual missing-yield coverage is not published. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. TAXI: ICE intermediate tax-exempt investment-grade municipals; proxy for the app's 1-15-year municipal blend. Yield to worst 4.050% and effective duration 4.770 years, observed 2026-10-05; issuer portfolio yield to worst. 0.05% annual IG municipal default planning allowance; a conservative model assumption, not a measured current fund default probability. Default prior 0.050%/year; assumed recovery 50%; annual performing credit loss 0.025%. Issuer aggregate: individual missing-yield coverage is not published. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. TAXI: ICE intermediate tax-exempt investment-grade municipals; proxy for the app's 1-15-year municipal blend. Yield to worst 4.050% and effective duration 4.770 years, observed 2026-10-05; issuer portfolio yield to worst. 0.05% annual IG municipal default planning allowance; a conservative model assumption, not a measured current fund default probability. Default prior 0.050%/year; assumed recovery 50%; annual performing credit loss 0.025%. Issuer aggregate: individual missing-yield coverage is not published. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. TAXI: ICE intermediate tax-exempt investment-grade municipals; proxy for the app's 1-15-year municipal blend. Yield to worst 4.050% and effective duration 4.770 years, observed 2026-10-05; issuer portfolio yield to worst. 0.05% annual IG municipal default planning allowance; a conservative model assumption, not a measured current fund default probability. Default prior 0.050%/year; assumed recovery 50%; annual performing credit loss 0.025%. Issuer aggregate: individual missing-yield coverage is not published. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. TAXI: ICE intermediate tax-exempt investment-grade municipals; proxy for the app's 1-15-year municipal blend. Yield to worst 4.050% and effective duration 4.770 years, observed 2026-10-05; issuer portfolio yield to worst. 0.05% annual IG municipal default planning allowance; a conservative model assumption, not a measured current fund default probability. Default prior 0.050%/year; assumed recovery 50%; annual performing credit loss 0.025%. Issuer aggregate: individual missing-yield coverage is not published. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
US Muni High Yield
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. CGHM: Capital Group Municipal High-Income active portfolio proxy, including lower-rated investment-grade and high-yield/unrated US municipal debt; not an exact broad-index replication. Yield to worst 5.400% and effective duration 8.100 years, observed 2026-10-02; issuer portfolio yield to worst. 1.2% annual high-income municipal default planning prior, rounded from the separately dated 1.19% historical study; applied to the entire active proxy because a usable current rating breakdown is unavailable. Default prior 1.200%/year; assumed recovery 50%; annual performing credit loss 0.600%. Issuer aggregate: individual missing-yield coverage is not published. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. CGHM: Capital Group Municipal High-Income active portfolio proxy, including lower-rated investment-grade and high-yield/unrated US municipal debt; not an exact broad-index replication. Yield to worst 5.400% and effective duration 8.100 years, observed 2026-10-02; issuer portfolio yield to worst. 1.2% annual high-income municipal default planning prior, rounded from the separately dated 1.19% historical study; applied to the entire active proxy because a usable current rating breakdown is unavailable. Default prior 1.200%/year; assumed recovery 50%; annual performing credit loss 0.600%. Issuer aggregate: individual missing-yield coverage is not published. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. CGHM: Capital Group Municipal High-Income active portfolio proxy, including lower-rated investment-grade and high-yield/unrated US municipal debt; not an exact broad-index replication. Yield to worst 5.400% and effective duration 8.100 years, observed 2026-10-02; issuer portfolio yield to worst. 1.2% annual high-income municipal default planning prior, rounded from the separately dated 1.19% historical study; applied to the entire active proxy because a usable current rating breakdown is unavailable. Default prior 1.200%/year; assumed recovery 50%; annual performing credit loss 0.600%. Issuer aggregate: individual missing-yield coverage is not published. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. CGHM: Capital Group Municipal High-Income active portfolio proxy, including lower-rated investment-grade and high-yield/unrated US municipal debt; not an exact broad-index replication. Yield to worst 5.400% and effective duration 8.100 years, observed 2026-10-02; issuer portfolio yield to worst. 1.2% annual high-income municipal default planning prior, rounded from the separately dated 1.19% historical study; applied to the entire active proxy because a usable current rating breakdown is unavailable. Default prior 1.200%/year; assumed recovery 50%; annual performing credit loss 0.600%. Issuer aggregate: individual missing-yield coverage is not published. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. CGHM: Capital Group Municipal High-Income active portfolio proxy, including lower-rated investment-grade and high-yield/unrated US municipal debt; not an exact broad-index replication. Yield to worst 5.400% and effective duration 8.100 years, observed 2026-10-02; issuer portfolio yield to worst. 1.2% annual high-income municipal default planning prior, rounded from the separately dated 1.19% historical study; applied to the entire active proxy because a usable current rating breakdown is unavailable. Default prior 1.200%/year; assumed recovery 50%; annual performing credit loss 0.600%. Issuer aggregate: individual missing-yield coverage is not published. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
US Securitized
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. AGG: US aggregate securitized sleeve only: agency mortgage pass-throughs, ABS and CMBS, weighted by actual market value. Yield to worst 5.967% and effective duration 5.808 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.020%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.012%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. AGG: US aggregate securitized sleeve only: agency mortgage pass-throughs, ABS and CMBS, weighted by actual market value. Yield to worst 5.967% and effective duration 5.808 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.020%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.012%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. AGG: US aggregate securitized sleeve only: agency mortgage pass-throughs, ABS and CMBS, weighted by actual market value. Yield to worst 5.967% and effective duration 5.808 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.020%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.012%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. AGG: US aggregate securitized sleeve only: agency mortgage pass-throughs, ABS and CMBS, weighted by actual market value. Yield to worst 5.967% and effective duration 5.808 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.020%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.012%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
AGG: US aggregate securitized sleeve only: agency mortgage pass-throughs, ABS and CMBS, weighted by actual market value. Yield to worst 5.967% and effective duration 5.808 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.020%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.012%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. ZAR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. ZAR ZARONIA 7.097% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
US Short Gov/Credit
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. AGG: US aggregate government/credit sleeve with remaining contractual maturity from one to three years; excludes mortgages, ABS and CMBS. Yield to worst 4.915% and effective duration 1.813 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.040%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.024%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. AGG: US aggregate government/credit sleeve with remaining contractual maturity from one to three years; excludes mortgages, ABS and CMBS. Yield to worst 4.915% and effective duration 1.813 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.040%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.024%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. AGG: US aggregate government/credit sleeve with remaining contractual maturity from one to three years; excludes mortgages, ABS and CMBS. Yield to worst 4.915% and effective duration 1.813 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.040%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.024%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. AGG: US aggregate government/credit sleeve with remaining contractual maturity from one to three years; excludes mortgages, ABS and CMBS. Yield to worst 4.915% and effective duration 1.813 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.040%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.024%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
AGG: US aggregate government/credit sleeve with remaining contractual maturity from one to three years; excludes mortgages, ABS and CMBS. Yield to worst 4.915% and effective duration 1.813 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.040%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.024%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. ZAR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. ZAR ZARONIA 7.097% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
US Long Corporate Bonds
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGLB: US dollar corporate bonds with remaining maturity over ten years; ICE BofA long corporate proxy. Yield to worst 6.640% and effective duration 11.480 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.084%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.051%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGLB: US dollar corporate bonds with remaining maturity over ten years; ICE BofA long corporate proxy. Yield to worst 6.640% and effective duration 11.480 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.084%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.051%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGLB: US dollar corporate bonds with remaining maturity over ten years; ICE BofA long corporate proxy. Yield to worst 6.640% and effective duration 11.480 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.084%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.051%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGLB: US dollar corporate bonds with remaining maturity over ten years; ICE BofA long corporate proxy. Yield to worst 6.640% and effective duration 11.480 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.084%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.051%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
IGLB: US dollar corporate bonds with remaining maturity over ten years; ICE BofA long corporate proxy. Yield to worst 6.640% and effective duration 11.480 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.084%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.051%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. ZAR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. ZAR ZARONIA 7.097% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
World ex-US Govt Bonds
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGOV: Developed-market government bonds outside the US in their actual currencies; FTSE WGBI developed ex-US capped proxy. Yield to worst 3.923% and effective duration 7.279 years, observed 2026-10-02; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1993 to 2025 local-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.035%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.021%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: EUR 54.4%, DKK 1.5%, ILS 3.5%, JPY 11.7%, GBP 7.2%, NZD 2.3%, CAD 4.6%, AUD 4.6%, KRW 4.7%, SEK 1.5%, SGD 2.8%, NOK 1.3%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGOV: Developed-market government bonds outside the US in their actual currencies; FTSE WGBI developed ex-US capped proxy. Yield to worst 3.923% and effective duration 7.279 years, observed 2026-10-02; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1993 to 2025 local-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.035%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.021%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: EUR 54.4%, DKK 1.5%, ILS 3.5%, JPY 11.7%, GBP 7.2%, NZD 2.3%, CAD 4.6%, AUD 4.6%, KRW 4.7%, SEK 1.5%, SGD 2.8%, NOK 1.3%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGOV: Developed-market government bonds outside the US in their actual currencies; FTSE WGBI developed ex-US capped proxy. Yield to worst 3.923% and effective duration 7.279 years, observed 2026-10-02; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1993 to 2025 local-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.035%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.021%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: EUR 54.4%, DKK 1.5%, ILS 3.5%, JPY 11.7%, GBP 7.2%, NZD 2.3%, CAD 4.6%, AUD 4.6%, KRW 4.7%, SEK 1.5%, SGD 2.8%, NOK 1.3%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
CAD · current model unavailable
Current financing inputs do not cover this currency hedge. The following method describes the available underlying model; it is not an applicable current forecast for this currency.
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGOV: Developed-market government bonds outside the US in their actual currencies; FTSE WGBI developed ex-US capped proxy. Yield to worst 3.923% and effective duration 7.279 years, observed 2026-10-02; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1993 to 2025 local-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.035%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.021%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: EUR 54.4%, DKK 1.5%, ILS 3.5%, JPY 11.7%, GBP 7.2%, NZD 2.3%, CAD 4.6%, AUD 4.6%, KRW 4.7%, SEK 1.5%, SGD 2.8%, NOK 1.3%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGOV: Developed-market government bonds outside the US in their actual currencies; FTSE WGBI developed ex-US capped proxy. Yield to worst 3.923% and effective duration 7.279 years, observed 2026-10-02; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1993 to 2025 local-currency sovereign one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.035%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.021%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: EUR 54.4%, DKK 1.5%, ILS 3.5%, JPY 11.7%, GBP 7.2%, NZD 2.3%, CAD 4.6%, AUD 4.6%, KRW 4.7%, SEK 1.5%, SGD 2.8%, NOK 1.3%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
EM Corporate Bonds
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. CEMB: US dollar emerging-market corporate bonds; J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Core proxy. Yield to worst 6.875% and effective duration 4.211 years, observed 2026-10-02; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.921%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.550%. 0.433% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
GBP · current model
CEMB: US dollar emerging-market corporate bonds; J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Core proxy. Yield to worst 6.875% and effective duration 4.211 years, observed 2026-10-02; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.921%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.550%. 0.433% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. GBP currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. GBP SONIA 3.7317% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-02); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
EUR · current model
CEMB: US dollar emerging-market corporate bonds; J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Core proxy. Yield to worst 6.875% and effective duration 4.211 years, observed 2026-10-02; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.921%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.550%. 0.433% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. EUR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. EUR ESTR 2.438% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
CAD · current model
CEMB: US dollar emerging-market corporate bonds; J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Core proxy. Yield to worst 6.875% and effective duration 4.211 years, observed 2026-10-02; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.921%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.550%. 0.433% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. CAD currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. CAD CORRA 2.29% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
ZAR · current model
CEMB: US dollar emerging-market corporate bonds; J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Core proxy. Yield to worst 6.875% and effective duration 4.211 years, observed 2026-10-02; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current issuer rating mix × S&P 1981 to 2024 corporate one-year historical default priors. Own minimum annual allowances AAA 0.01%, AA 0.02%, A 0.05%, BBB 0.10% avoid treating zero observed defaults as zero risk. Unrated uses the B prior. Rating agency aggregation and quasi-sovereign coverage are proxy limitations. Default prior 0.921%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.550%. 0.433% non-accrual/defaulted market value retained; a one-time 50% value reserve centrally, 100% in stress. The prior is applied only to the remaining performing sleeve. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. ZAR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. ZAR ZARONIA 7.097% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-02
TIPS
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. TIP portfolio real yield 2.82%, effective duration 6.14 years, observed 2026-10-05. Real carry and constant-duration first-order repricing, converted once to nominal using shared 10-year US CPI expectation 2.573%. SEC distribution yield and nominal YTM are not used. Flat real yield centrally; real-yield shifts ±1.5pp and inflation ±1pp are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Indexation lag, deflation floor, tax and exact cash flows are not individually priced; gross of fund fees. USD inflation protection, unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; it is not protection against another country's CPI.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. TIP portfolio real yield 2.82%, effective duration 6.14 years, observed 2026-10-05. Real carry and constant-duration first-order repricing, converted once to nominal using shared 10-year US CPI expectation 2.573%. SEC distribution yield and nominal YTM are not used. Flat real yield centrally; real-yield shifts ±1.5pp and inflation ±1pp are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Indexation lag, deflation floor, tax and exact cash flows are not individually priced; gross of fund fees. USD inflation protection, unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; it is not protection against another country's CPI.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. TIP portfolio real yield 2.82%, effective duration 6.14 years, observed 2026-10-05. Real carry and constant-duration first-order repricing, converted once to nominal using shared 10-year US CPI expectation 2.573%. SEC distribution yield and nominal YTM are not used. Flat real yield centrally; real-yield shifts ±1.5pp and inflation ±1pp are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Indexation lag, deflation floor, tax and exact cash flows are not individually priced; gross of fund fees. USD inflation protection, unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; it is not protection against another country's CPI.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. TIP portfolio real yield 2.82%, effective duration 6.14 years, observed 2026-10-05. Real carry and constant-duration first-order repricing, converted once to nominal using shared 10-year US CPI expectation 2.573%. SEC distribution yield and nominal YTM are not used. Flat real yield centrally; real-yield shifts ±1.5pp and inflation ±1pp are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Indexation lag, deflation floor, tax and exact cash flows are not individually priced; gross of fund fees. USD inflation protection, unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; it is not protection against another country's CPI.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
TIP portfolio real yield 2.82%, effective duration 6.14 years, observed 2026-10-05. Real carry and constant-duration first-order repricing, converted once to nominal using shared 10-year US CPI expectation 2.573%. SEC distribution yield and nominal YTM are not used. Flat real yield centrally; real-yield shifts ±1.5pp and inflation ±1pp are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Indexation lag, deflation floor, tax and exact cash flows are not individually priced; gross of fund fees. ZAR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. ZAR ZARONIA 7.097% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
US Aggregate Bonds
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. AGG: US investment-grade aggregate: Treasury, agency, corporate and securitized holdings weighted by market value. Yield to worst 5.569% and effective duration 5.725 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.047%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.028%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. Unhedged with unchanged nominal exchange rates; no house FX premium. Currency risk remains and is not included in these rate/credit sensitivities. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
AGG: US investment-grade aggregate: Treasury, agency, corporate and securitized holdings weighted by market value. Yield to worst 5.569% and effective duration 5.725 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.047%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.028%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. GBP currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. GBP SONIA 3.7317% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-02); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
AGG: US investment-grade aggregate: Treasury, agency, corporate and securitized holdings weighted by market value. Yield to worst 5.569% and effective duration 5.725 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.047%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.028%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. EUR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. EUR ESTR 2.438% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
AGG: US investment-grade aggregate: Treasury, agency, corporate and securitized holdings weighted by market value. Yield to worst 5.569% and effective duration 5.725 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.047%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.028%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. CAD currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. CAD CORRA 2.29% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
AGG: US investment-grade aggregate: Treasury, agency, corporate and securitized holdings weighted by market value. Yield to worst 5.569% and effective duration 5.725 years, observed 2026-10-05; market-value-weighted yield to worst; zero accrual on explicitly identified missing-yield sleeve. Current sector weights × explicit annual default allowances: 0.01% government/agency/agency-MBS/supranational, 0.14% other investment-grade credit/ABS/CMBS. The latter uses the corporate BBB historical prior as a conservative proxy; it is not a tranche cash-flow or issuer-level default model. Default prior 0.047%/year; assumed recovery 40%; annual performing credit loss 0.028%. All selected holdings have usable yield observations. Flat-yield central case, monthly carry and reinvestment, constant-duration first-order repricing. No extra roll-down, convexity gain or duplicated spread deduction. Yield to worst is an annual carry approximation, not an exact reinvested cash-flow IRR. Rate sensitivities ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. Callable/prepayable exposure uses explicit duration multipliers 1.25 in rising-yield stress and 0.75 in falling-yield sensitivity; these are assumptions, not a full option/prepayment model. Scenarios are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Currency basket: USD 100.0%. ZAR currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. ZAR ZARONIA 7.097% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Gross of fees and investor taxes; municipal tax exemptions are not grossed up. Structural credit research reviewed 2026-09-07, due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
US REITs
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Nareit All Equity REIT income yield 3.93%; real dividend-per-share trend 1.449% over 2011Q2-2026Q2, four-quarter sums deflated with quarter-end CPI. Our 50% shrinkage towards zero gives 0.725% real growth. FFO-per-share trend 1.792% is a cross-check, not added income. Share issuance, repurchases and distributions enter per-share growth once. Changing industry membership and aggregate per-share measurement limit this proxy. Nominal cash-flow IRR, unchanged exit yield centrally; growth ±2pp and terminal value ±25% over ten years. No automatic yield reversion or extra capex deduction from dividends; gross of wrapper fees. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- income:
- 2026-09-30
- growth:
- 2026-06-30
- observed:
- 2026-09-30
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Nareit All Equity REIT income yield 3.93%; real dividend-per-share trend 1.449% over 2011Q2-2026Q2, four-quarter sums deflated with quarter-end CPI. Our 50% shrinkage towards zero gives 0.725% real growth. FFO-per-share trend 1.792% is a cross-check, not added income. Share issuance, repurchases and distributions enter per-share growth once. Changing industry membership and aggregate per-share measurement limit this proxy. Nominal cash-flow IRR, unchanged exit yield centrally; growth ±2pp and terminal value ±25% over ten years. No automatic yield reversion or extra capex deduction from dividends; gross of wrapper fees. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- income:
- 2026-09-30
- growth:
- 2026-06-30
- observed:
- 2026-09-30
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Nareit All Equity REIT income yield 3.93%; real dividend-per-share trend 1.449% over 2011Q2-2026Q2, four-quarter sums deflated with quarter-end CPI. Our 50% shrinkage towards zero gives 0.725% real growth. FFO-per-share trend 1.792% is a cross-check, not added income. Share issuance, repurchases and distributions enter per-share growth once. Changing industry membership and aggregate per-share measurement limit this proxy. Nominal cash-flow IRR, unchanged exit yield centrally; growth ±2pp and terminal value ±25% over ten years. No automatic yield reversion or extra capex deduction from dividends; gross of wrapper fees. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- income:
- 2026-09-30
- growth:
- 2026-06-30
- observed:
- 2026-09-30
US Core Real Estate
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Core property: actual ODCE income 4.08% already includes interest. Recover NOI, grow it with current inflation plus 1% real, deduct fixed interest once and 1.2% asset-value maintenance capex. 27.1% debt/value, 5.5% financing, unchanged exit yield. Gross/net observed fund wealth gives 0.823% annual fee allowance. Central reinvestment maintains property exposure; cash reinvestment gives 6.21%. Current inflation does not revalue the starting income. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- peer Growth:
- 2026-06-30
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- property Income:
- 2026-06-30
- property Release:
- 2026-07-30
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Core property: actual ODCE income 4.08% already includes interest. Recover NOI, grow it with current inflation plus 1% real, deduct fixed interest once and 1.2% asset-value maintenance capex. 27.1% debt/value, 5.5% financing, unchanged exit yield. Gross/net observed fund wealth gives 0.823% annual fee allowance. Central reinvestment maintains property exposure; cash reinvestment gives 6.21%. Current inflation does not revalue the starting income. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- peer Growth:
- 2026-06-30
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- property Income:
- 2026-06-30
- property Release:
- 2026-07-30
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Core property: actual ODCE income 4.08% already includes interest. Recover NOI, grow it with current inflation plus 1% real, deduct fixed interest once and 1.2% asset-value maintenance capex. 27.1% debt/value, 5.5% financing, unchanged exit yield. Gross/net observed fund wealth gives 0.823% annual fee allowance. Central reinvestment maintains property exposure; cash reinvestment gives 6.21%. Current inflation does not revalue the starting income. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- peer Growth:
- 2026-06-30
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- property Income:
- 2026-06-30
- property Release:
- 2026-07-30
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Core property: actual ODCE income 4.08% already includes interest. Recover NOI, grow it with current inflation plus 1% real, deduct fixed interest once and 1.2% asset-value maintenance capex. 27.1% debt/value, 5.5% financing, unchanged exit yield. Gross/net observed fund wealth gives 0.823% annual fee allowance. Central reinvestment maintains property exposure; cash reinvestment gives 6.21%. Current inflation does not revalue the starting income. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- peer Growth:
- 2026-06-30
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- property Income:
- 2026-06-30
- property Release:
- 2026-07-30
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Core property: actual ODCE income 4.08% already includes interest. Recover NOI, grow it with current inflation plus 1% real, deduct fixed interest once and 1.2% asset-value maintenance capex. 27.1% debt/value, 5.5% financing, unchanged exit yield. Gross/net observed fund wealth gives 0.823% annual fee allowance. Central reinvestment maintains property exposure; cash reinvestment gives 6.21%. Current inflation does not revalue the starting income. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- peer Growth:
- 2026-06-30
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- property Income:
- 2026-06-30
- property Release:
- 2026-07-30
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Global Infrastructure
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Private infrastructure: SIPA Infra300 Q2 valuation-implied equity discount rate 10.44% anchors gross planning growth. Treating a required discount rate as long-run geometric growth is an explicit equilibrium assumption, not a published expected CAGR. Project borrowing is already reflected in equity value: no second leverage multiplier. Fund layer: 1.25% annual wealth fee and 10% carry after 6% preferred return. ±3pp gross-rate sensitivity spans materially different cash-flow and valuation views. Benchmark includes broader infrastructure and mixed local currencies; treating its central rate as a USD planning anchor is approximate, with FX risk retained. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- peer Structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Private infrastructure: SIPA Infra300 Q2 valuation-implied equity discount rate 10.44% anchors gross planning growth. Treating a required discount rate as long-run geometric growth is an explicit equilibrium assumption, not a published expected CAGR. Project borrowing is already reflected in equity value: no second leverage multiplier. Fund layer: 1.25% annual wealth fee and 10% carry after 6% preferred return. ±3pp gross-rate sensitivity spans materially different cash-flow and valuation views. Benchmark includes broader infrastructure and mixed local currencies; treating its central rate as a USD planning anchor is approximate, with FX risk retained. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- peer Structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Private infrastructure: SIPA Infra300 Q2 valuation-implied equity discount rate 10.44% anchors gross planning growth. Treating a required discount rate as long-run geometric growth is an explicit equilibrium assumption, not a published expected CAGR. Project borrowing is already reflected in equity value: no second leverage multiplier. Fund layer: 1.25% annual wealth fee and 10% carry after 6% preferred return. ±3pp gross-rate sensitivity spans materially different cash-flow and valuation views. Benchmark includes broader infrastructure and mixed local currencies; treating its central rate as a USD planning anchor is approximate, with FX risk retained. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- peer Structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Private infrastructure: SIPA Infra300 Q2 valuation-implied equity discount rate 10.44% anchors gross planning growth. Treating a required discount rate as long-run geometric growth is an explicit equilibrium assumption, not a published expected CAGR. Project borrowing is already reflected in equity value: no second leverage multiplier. Fund layer: 1.25% annual wealth fee and 10% carry after 6% preferred return. ±3pp gross-rate sensitivity spans materially different cash-flow and valuation views. Benchmark includes broader infrastructure and mixed local currencies; treating its central rate as a USD planning anchor is approximate, with FX risk retained. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- peer Structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Private infrastructure: SIPA Infra300 Q2 valuation-implied equity discount rate 10.44% anchors gross planning growth. Treating a required discount rate as long-run geometric growth is an explicit equilibrium assumption, not a published expected CAGR. Project borrowing is already reflected in equity value: no second leverage multiplier. Fund layer: 1.25% annual wealth fee and 10% carry after 6% preferred return. ±3pp gross-rate sensitivity spans materially different cash-flow and valuation views. Benchmark includes broader infrastructure and mixed local currencies; treating its central rate as a USD planning anchor is approximate, with FX risk retained. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- peer Structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Listed Infrastructure
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. MSCI World Infrastructure current dividend yield 3.71%, P/E 16.88 (valuation context). Our real per-share growth prior 1.750% is half the broad-world structural growth assumption, shrunk towards zero for mature capital-intensive businesses; not measured sector earnings growth. No separate buyback premium. Nominal cash-flow IRR, unchanged multiple centrally; growth ±2pp and exit value ±25% over ten years. Developed-market infrastructure benchmark proxy, not an exact replication of every listed infrastructure fund. Gross of fees. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
- observed:
- 2026-09-30
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. MSCI World Infrastructure current dividend yield 3.71%, P/E 16.88 (valuation context). Our real per-share growth prior 1.750% is half the broad-world structural growth assumption, shrunk towards zero for mature capital-intensive businesses; not measured sector earnings growth. No separate buyback premium. Nominal cash-flow IRR, unchanged multiple centrally; growth ±2pp and exit value ±25% over ten years. Developed-market infrastructure benchmark proxy, not an exact replication of every listed infrastructure fund. Gross of fees. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
- observed:
- 2026-09-30
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. MSCI World Infrastructure current dividend yield 3.71%, P/E 16.88 (valuation context). Our real per-share growth prior 1.750% is half the broad-world structural growth assumption, shrunk towards zero for mature capital-intensive businesses; not measured sector earnings growth. No separate buyback premium. Nominal cash-flow IRR, unchanged multiple centrally; growth ±2pp and exit value ±25% over ten years. Developed-market infrastructure benchmark proxy, not an exact replication of every listed infrastructure fund. Gross of fees. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
- observed:
- 2026-09-30
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. MSCI World Infrastructure current dividend yield 3.71%, P/E 16.88 (valuation context). Our real per-share growth prior 1.750% is half the broad-world structural growth assumption, shrunk towards zero for mature capital-intensive businesses; not measured sector earnings growth. No separate buyback premium. Nominal cash-flow IRR, unchanged multiple centrally; growth ±2pp and exit value ±25% over ten years. Developed-market infrastructure benchmark proxy, not an exact replication of every listed infrastructure fund. Gross of fees. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
- observed:
- 2026-09-30
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. MSCI World Infrastructure current dividend yield 3.71%, P/E 16.88 (valuation context). Our real per-share growth prior 1.750% is half the broad-world structural growth assumption, shrunk towards zero for mature capital-intensive businesses; not measured sector earnings growth. No separate buyback premium. Nominal cash-flow IRR, unchanged multiple centrally; growth ±2pp and exit value ±25% over ten years. Developed-market infrastructure benchmark proxy, not an exact replication of every listed infrastructure fund. Gross of fees. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
- observed:
- 2026-09-30
Commodities (Broad)
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Fully collateralized broad commodity futures: horizon-matched ACM expected cash × a 1.5% annual relative-wealth futures premium. Our premium shrinks the published roughly 3% long-history equal-weighted result halfway towards zero because broad commercial indexes differ in weighting and rolling. The premium includes spot changes, rolling and diversification; inflation and roll yield are not added again. No claim that today's futures curve persists for ten years. −3%/+4.5% premium sensitivities, gross of implementation costs; index design materially changes results. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-07
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Fully collateralized broad commodity futures: horizon-matched ACM expected cash × a 1.5% annual relative-wealth futures premium. Our premium shrinks the published roughly 3% long-history equal-weighted result halfway towards zero because broad commercial indexes differ in weighting and rolling. The premium includes spot changes, rolling and diversification; inflation and roll yield are not added again. No claim that today's futures curve persists for ten years. −3%/+4.5% premium sensitivities, gross of implementation costs; index design materially changes results. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-07
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Fully collateralized broad commodity futures: horizon-matched ACM expected cash × a 1.5% annual relative-wealth futures premium. Our premium shrinks the published roughly 3% long-history equal-weighted result halfway towards zero because broad commercial indexes differ in weighting and rolling. The premium includes spot changes, rolling and diversification; inflation and roll yield are not added again. No claim that today's futures curve persists for ten years. −3%/+4.5% premium sensitivities, gross of implementation costs; index design materially changes results. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-07
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Fully collateralized broad commodity futures: horizon-matched ACM expected cash × a 1.5% annual relative-wealth futures premium. Our premium shrinks the published roughly 3% long-history equal-weighted result halfway towards zero because broad commercial indexes differ in weighting and rolling. The premium includes spot changes, rolling and diversification; inflation and roll yield are not added again. No claim that today's futures curve persists for ten years. −3%/+4.5% premium sensitivities, gross of implementation costs; index design materially changes results. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-07
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Fully collateralized broad commodity futures: horizon-matched ACM expected cash × a 1.5% annual relative-wealth futures premium. Our premium shrinks the published roughly 3% long-history equal-weighted result halfway towards zero because broad commercial indexes differ in weighting and rolling. The premium includes spot changes, rolling and diversification; inflation and roll yield are not added again. No claim that today's futures curve persists for ten years. −3%/+4.5% premium sensitivities, gross of implementation costs; index design materially changes results. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-07
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Gold
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Physical bullion monetary scenario: observed spot 2026-10-05, US M2 2026-08, no projection of missing global money data. Matched monthly bullion/M2 ratios over twenty years; latest spot divided by latest observed M2 is 1.75 times the historical median. Twenty-year observed M2 growth 6.263% is the future money-growth assumption. 0.3333333333333333 log-ratio reversion centrally; no/full reversion and money growth ±2pp in sensitivities. Growth, valuation and 0.4% annual holding cost compound multiplicatively. Monthly averages and latest daily spot are different observation frequencies. US M2 is a monetary proxy, not all global gold demand or intrinsic value; this heuristic is not the World Gold Council GLTER model or a validated causal forecast. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- gold:
- 2026-10-05
- money:
- 2026-08-31
- history:
- 2026-09-30
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Physical bullion monetary scenario: observed spot 2026-10-05, US M2 2026-08, no projection of missing global money data. Matched monthly bullion/M2 ratios over twenty years; latest spot divided by latest observed M2 is 1.75 times the historical median. Twenty-year observed M2 growth 6.263% is the future money-growth assumption. 0.3333333333333333 log-ratio reversion centrally; no/full reversion and money growth ±2pp in sensitivities. Growth, valuation and 0.4% annual holding cost compound multiplicatively. Monthly averages and latest daily spot are different observation frequencies. US M2 is a monetary proxy, not all global gold demand or intrinsic value; this heuristic is not the World Gold Council GLTER model or a validated causal forecast. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- gold:
- 2026-10-05
- money:
- 2026-08-31
- history:
- 2026-09-30
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Physical bullion monetary scenario: observed spot 2026-10-05, US M2 2026-08, no projection of missing global money data. Matched monthly bullion/M2 ratios over twenty years; latest spot divided by latest observed M2 is 1.75 times the historical median. Twenty-year observed M2 growth 6.263% is the future money-growth assumption. 0.3333333333333333 log-ratio reversion centrally; no/full reversion and money growth ±2pp in sensitivities. Growth, valuation and 0.4% annual holding cost compound multiplicatively. Monthly averages and latest daily spot are different observation frequencies. US M2 is a monetary proxy, not all global gold demand or intrinsic value; this heuristic is not the World Gold Council GLTER model or a validated causal forecast. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- gold:
- 2026-10-05
- money:
- 2026-08-31
- history:
- 2026-09-30
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Physical bullion monetary scenario: observed spot 2026-10-05, US M2 2026-08, no projection of missing global money data. Matched monthly bullion/M2 ratios over twenty years; latest spot divided by latest observed M2 is 1.75 times the historical median. Twenty-year observed M2 growth 6.263% is the future money-growth assumption. 0.3333333333333333 log-ratio reversion centrally; no/full reversion and money growth ±2pp in sensitivities. Growth, valuation and 0.4% annual holding cost compound multiplicatively. Monthly averages and latest daily spot are different observation frequencies. US M2 is a monetary proxy, not all global gold demand or intrinsic value; this heuristic is not the World Gold Council GLTER model or a validated causal forecast. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- gold:
- 2026-10-05
- money:
- 2026-08-31
- history:
- 2026-09-30
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Physical bullion monetary scenario: observed spot 2026-10-05, US M2 2026-08, no projection of missing global money data. Matched monthly bullion/M2 ratios over twenty years; latest spot divided by latest observed M2 is 1.75 times the historical median. Twenty-year observed M2 growth 6.263% is the future money-growth assumption. 0.3333333333333333 log-ratio reversion centrally; no/full reversion and money growth ±2pp in sensitivities. Growth, valuation and 0.4% annual holding cost compound multiplicatively. Monthly averages and latest daily spot are different observation frequencies. US M2 is a monetary proxy, not all global gold demand or intrinsic value; this heuristic is not the World Gold Council GLTER model or a validated causal forecast. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- gold:
- 2026-10-05
- money:
- 2026-08-31
- history:
- 2026-09-30
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Diversified Hedge Funds
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Diversified hedge funds: covariance-consistent equity and credit factor exposures, plus 1.15pp net strategy residual in the arithmetic mean. This rounded middle of recent matched-fund residual evidence (~0.55pp) and Cliffwater's strategy mixture (1.77pp) includes omitted arbitrage/trend premia and skill after fees. It is not guaranteed alpha. Whole-sample historical alpha is not extrapolated; net residual 0-2.3pp is a sensitivity. Economic risk is anchored to the diversified JPM fund category, with source residual dependence estimated from the broad net-fund history. The former full ARMA risk estimate is retained as a comparison, not treated as validated economic volatility. Strategy composition and the transfer of the net premium remain explicit uncertainties. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Diversified hedge funds: covariance-consistent equity and credit factor exposures, plus 1.15pp net strategy residual in the arithmetic mean. This rounded middle of recent matched-fund residual evidence (~0.55pp) and Cliffwater's strategy mixture (1.77pp) includes omitted arbitrage/trend premia and skill after fees. It is not guaranteed alpha. Whole-sample historical alpha is not extrapolated; net residual 0-2.3pp is a sensitivity. Economic risk is anchored to the diversified JPM fund category, with source residual dependence estimated from the broad net-fund history. The former full ARMA risk estimate is retained as a comparison, not treated as validated economic volatility. Strategy composition and the transfer of the net premium remain explicit uncertainties. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Hedge of USD-valued fund NAV, not every underlying position; quarterly resets, additive funding differential, without spot FX. GBP currency hedge: actual currency weights, quarterly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. GBP SONIA 3.7317% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-02); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Diversified hedge funds: covariance-consistent equity and credit factor exposures, plus 1.15pp net strategy residual in the arithmetic mean. This rounded middle of recent matched-fund residual evidence (~0.55pp) and Cliffwater's strategy mixture (1.77pp) includes omitted arbitrage/trend premia and skill after fees. It is not guaranteed alpha. Whole-sample historical alpha is not extrapolated; net residual 0-2.3pp is a sensitivity. Economic risk is anchored to the diversified JPM fund category, with source residual dependence estimated from the broad net-fund history. The former full ARMA risk estimate is retained as a comparison, not treated as validated economic volatility. Strategy composition and the transfer of the net premium remain explicit uncertainties. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Hedge of USD-valued fund NAV, not every underlying position; quarterly resets, additive funding differential, without spot FX. EUR currency hedge: actual currency weights, quarterly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. EUR ESTR 2.438% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Diversified hedge funds: covariance-consistent equity and credit factor exposures, plus 1.15pp net strategy residual in the arithmetic mean. This rounded middle of recent matched-fund residual evidence (~0.55pp) and Cliffwater's strategy mixture (1.77pp) includes omitted arbitrage/trend premia and skill after fees. It is not guaranteed alpha. Whole-sample historical alpha is not extrapolated; net residual 0-2.3pp is a sensitivity. Economic risk is anchored to the diversified JPM fund category, with source residual dependence estimated from the broad net-fund history. The former full ARMA risk estimate is retained as a comparison, not treated as validated economic volatility. Strategy composition and the transfer of the net premium remain explicit uncertainties. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Hedge of USD-valued fund NAV, not every underlying position; quarterly resets, additive funding differential, without spot FX. CAD currency hedge: actual currency weights, quarterly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. CAD CORRA 2.29% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
Diversified hedge funds: covariance-consistent equity and credit factor exposures, plus 1.15pp net strategy residual in the arithmetic mean. This rounded middle of recent matched-fund residual evidence (~0.55pp) and Cliffwater's strategy mixture (1.77pp) includes omitted arbitrage/trend premia and skill after fees. It is not guaranteed alpha. Whole-sample historical alpha is not extrapolated; net residual 0-2.3pp is a sensitivity. Economic risk is anchored to the diversified JPM fund category, with source residual dependence estimated from the broad net-fund history. The former full ARMA risk estimate is retained as a comparison, not treated as validated economic volatility. Strategy composition and the transfer of the net premium remain explicit uncertainties. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Hedge of USD-valued fund NAV, not every underlying position; quarterly resets, additive funding differential, without spot FX. ZAR currency hedge: actual currency weights, quarterly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. ZAR ZARONIA 7.097% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05); USD SOFR 3.89% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Private Equity
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Buyout cash-flow model: 12x entry and 12x exit EBITDA, 37% debt/value, 5.6% observed EBITDA growth fading to 4.62%, 60% cash conversion after tax/capex/working capital. Borrowing at cash + 5pp; cash repays debt first. Management 1.75% stepping down to 1.25% after year 5, 20% carry after 8% preferred return with catch-up, 1% entry cost on invested equity. Central 8.16% assumes replacement investments earn the same net IRR; cash reinvestment gives 8.16%. No additional volatility subtraction from this cash-flow rate. No blanket private premium. The default holds the exit multiple equal to the entry multiple; an edited exit multiple changes that assumption. Cash conversion and later fund terms remain judgement inputs. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Buyout cash-flow model: 12x entry and 12x exit EBITDA, 37% debt/value, 5.6% observed EBITDA growth fading to 4.62%, 60% cash conversion after tax/capex/working capital. Borrowing at cash + 5pp; cash repays debt first. Management 1.75% stepping down to 1.25% after year 5, 20% carry after 8% preferred return with catch-up, 1% entry cost on invested equity. Central 8.16% assumes replacement investments earn the same net IRR; cash reinvestment gives 8.16%. No additional volatility subtraction from this cash-flow rate. No blanket private premium. The default holds the exit multiple equal to the entry multiple; an edited exit multiple changes that assumption. Cash conversion and later fund terms remain judgement inputs. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Buyout cash-flow model: 12x entry and 12x exit EBITDA, 37% debt/value, 5.6% observed EBITDA growth fading to 4.62%, 60% cash conversion after tax/capex/working capital. Borrowing at cash + 5pp; cash repays debt first. Management 1.75% stepping down to 1.25% after year 5, 20% carry after 8% preferred return with catch-up, 1% entry cost on invested equity. Central 8.16% assumes replacement investments earn the same net IRR; cash reinvestment gives 8.16%. No additional volatility subtraction from this cash-flow rate. No blanket private premium. The default holds the exit multiple equal to the entry multiple; an edited exit multiple changes that assumption. Cash conversion and later fund terms remain judgement inputs. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Buyout cash-flow model: 12x entry and 12x exit EBITDA, 37% debt/value, 5.6% observed EBITDA growth fading to 4.62%, 60% cash conversion after tax/capex/working capital. Borrowing at cash + 5pp; cash repays debt first. Management 1.75% stepping down to 1.25% after year 5, 20% carry after 8% preferred return with catch-up, 1% entry cost on invested equity. Central 8.16% assumes replacement investments earn the same net IRR; cash reinvestment gives 8.16%. No additional volatility subtraction from this cash-flow rate. No blanket private premium. The default holds the exit multiple equal to the entry multiple; an edited exit multiple changes that assumption. Cash conversion and later fund terms remain judgement inputs. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Buyout cash-flow model: 12x entry and 12x exit EBITDA, 37% debt/value, 5.6% observed EBITDA growth fading to 4.62%, 60% cash conversion after tax/capex/working capital. Borrowing at cash + 5pp; cash repays debt first. Management 1.75% stepping down to 1.25% after year 5, 20% carry after 8% preferred return with catch-up, 1% entry cost on invested equity. Central 8.16% assumes replacement investments earn the same net IRR; cash reinvestment gives 8.16%. No additional volatility subtraction from this cash-flow rate. No blanket private premium. The default holds the exit multiple equal to the entry multiple; an edited exit multiple changes that assumption. Cash conversion and later fund terms remain judgement inputs. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Listed Private Equity
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Listed private equity: joint ac_world equity beta 1.395 and us_treasuries beta -0.075, solved together from the app's covariance assumptions. Current arithmetic factor premia over horizon-matched cash, converted with 25.59% economic volatility. Zero net alpha; no assumed manager selection skill. Global listed managers and investment companies differ from unlisted buyout funds. No extra illiquidity premium or automatic discount-to-NAV closure is added. Scenarios cross both factor forecasts with net alpha ±2pp; sensitivities are deliberately broad and are not calibrated confidence intervals. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-07
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Listed private equity: joint ac_world equity beta 1.395 and us_treasuries beta -0.075, solved together from the app's covariance assumptions. Current arithmetic factor premia over horizon-matched cash, converted with 25.59% economic volatility. Zero net alpha; no assumed manager selection skill. Global listed managers and investment companies differ from unlisted buyout funds. No extra illiquidity premium or automatic discount-to-NAV closure is added. Scenarios cross both factor forecasts with net alpha ±2pp; sensitivities are deliberately broad and are not calibrated confidence intervals. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-07
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Listed private equity: joint ac_world equity beta 1.395 and us_treasuries beta -0.075, solved together from the app's covariance assumptions. Current arithmetic factor premia over horizon-matched cash, converted with 25.59% economic volatility. Zero net alpha; no assumed manager selection skill. Global listed managers and investment companies differ from unlisted buyout funds. No extra illiquidity premium or automatic discount-to-NAV closure is added. Scenarios cross both factor forecasts with net alpha ±2pp; sensitivities are deliberately broad and are not calibrated confidence intervals. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-07
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Listed private equity: joint ac_world equity beta 1.395 and us_treasuries beta -0.075, solved together from the app's covariance assumptions. Current arithmetic factor premia over horizon-matched cash, converted with 25.59% economic volatility. Zero net alpha; no assumed manager selection skill. Global listed managers and investment companies differ from unlisted buyout funds. No extra illiquidity premium or automatic discount-to-NAV closure is added. Scenarios cross both factor forecasts with net alpha ±2pp; sensitivities are deliberately broad and are not calibrated confidence intervals. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-07
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Listed private equity: joint ac_world equity beta 1.395 and us_treasuries beta -0.075, solved together from the app's covariance assumptions. Current arithmetic factor premia over horizon-matched cash, converted with 25.59% economic volatility. Zero net alpha; no assumed manager selection skill. Global listed managers and investment companies differ from unlisted buyout funds. No extra illiquidity premium or automatic discount-to-NAV closure is added. Scenarios cross both factor forecasts with net alpha ±2pp; sensitivities are deliberately broad and are not calibrated confidence intervals. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-07
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Venture Capital
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Venture capital: median of three planning models. (1) Current buyout net return with JPM's structural net VC/buyout spread -1.7pp: 6.46%. (2) Current small-cap return plus PGIM's 2.2pp gross private premium, less 2% management and 20% carry above 8%: 7.69%. (3) Current small-growth factor return plus shrunk net fund residual 1.28pp in arithmetic space: 6.45%. Institutional spreads are dated structural priors, not current house forecasts. Residual estimate 4.32pp, standard error 3.08, prior SD 2pp; 2009-2025 sample misses dotcom/GFC and has benchmark/backfill uncertainty. We do not use pooled IRR as a return series or claim company-level failure modelling. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Venture capital: median of three planning models. (1) Current buyout net return with JPM's structural net VC/buyout spread -1.7pp: 6.46%. (2) Current small-cap return plus PGIM's 2.2pp gross private premium, less 2% management and 20% carry above 8%: 7.69%. (3) Current small-growth factor return plus shrunk net fund residual 1.28pp in arithmetic space: 6.45%. Institutional spreads are dated structural priors, not current house forecasts. Residual estimate 4.32pp, standard error 3.08, prior SD 2pp; 2009-2025 sample misses dotcom/GFC and has benchmark/backfill uncertainty. We do not use pooled IRR as a return series or claim company-level failure modelling. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Venture capital: median of three planning models. (1) Current buyout net return with JPM's structural net VC/buyout spread -1.7pp: 6.46%. (2) Current small-cap return plus PGIM's 2.2pp gross private premium, less 2% management and 20% carry above 8%: 7.69%. (3) Current small-growth factor return plus shrunk net fund residual 1.28pp in arithmetic space: 6.45%. Institutional spreads are dated structural priors, not current house forecasts. Residual estimate 4.32pp, standard error 3.08, prior SD 2pp; 2009-2025 sample misses dotcom/GFC and has benchmark/backfill uncertainty. We do not use pooled IRR as a return series or claim company-level failure modelling. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Venture capital: median of three planning models. (1) Current buyout net return with JPM's structural net VC/buyout spread -1.7pp: 6.46%. (2) Current small-cap return plus PGIM's 2.2pp gross private premium, less 2% management and 20% carry above 8%: 7.69%. (3) Current small-growth factor return plus shrunk net fund residual 1.28pp in arithmetic space: 6.45%. Institutional spreads are dated structural priors, not current house forecasts. Residual estimate 4.32pp, standard error 3.08, prior SD 2pp; 2009-2025 sample misses dotcom/GFC and has benchmark/backfill uncertainty. We do not use pooled IRR as a return series or claim company-level failure modelling. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Venture capital: median of three planning models. (1) Current buyout net return with JPM's structural net VC/buyout spread -1.7pp: 6.46%. (2) Current small-cap return plus PGIM's 2.2pp gross private premium, less 2% management and 20% carry above 8%: 7.69%. (3) Current small-growth factor return plus shrunk net fund residual 1.28pp in arithmetic space: 6.45%. Institutional spreads are dated structural priors, not current house forecasts. Residual estimate 4.32pp, standard error 3.08, prior SD 2pp; 2009-2025 sample misses dotcom/GFC and has benchmark/backfill uncertainty. We do not use pooled IRR as a return series or claim company-level failure modelling. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-08-31
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Private Debt (Direct Lending)
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Direct lending: cash 4.42% + 1.75× private loan spread 5.25% + 1.75× annual origination income 0.40% − 1.75× annual credit loss 0.825% − 0.75× funding spread 2%. Management 1.375% and administration 0.35% on investor equity; 12.5% incentive on annual gains above 6%. Expected incentive fees integrated over pre-fee outcomes, not applied just to average income. Post-fee mean 8.77% and 11.50% economic risk are matched to the app's lognormal return convention once. Fee-transformed outcomes are approximated by their moments; annual reset is not a perpetual high-water mark. Private spreads already include illiquidity compensation. No second premium, dividend or discount-to-NAV gain is added. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- credit Spread:
- 2026-10-05
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Direct lending: cash 4.42% + 1.75× private loan spread 5.25% + 1.75× annual origination income 0.40% − 1.75× annual credit loss 0.825% − 0.75× funding spread 2%. Management 1.375% and administration 0.35% on investor equity; 12.5% incentive on annual gains above 6%. Expected incentive fees integrated over pre-fee outcomes, not applied just to average income. Post-fee mean 8.77% and 11.50% economic risk are matched to the app's lognormal return convention once. Fee-transformed outcomes are approximated by their moments; annual reset is not a perpetual high-water mark. Private spreads already include illiquidity compensation. No second premium, dividend or discount-to-NAV gain is added. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- credit Spread:
- 2026-10-05
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Direct lending: cash 4.42% + 1.75× private loan spread 5.25% + 1.75× annual origination income 0.40% − 1.75× annual credit loss 0.825% − 0.75× funding spread 2%. Management 1.375% and administration 0.35% on investor equity; 12.5% incentive on annual gains above 6%. Expected incentive fees integrated over pre-fee outcomes, not applied just to average income. Post-fee mean 8.77% and 11.50% economic risk are matched to the app's lognormal return convention once. Fee-transformed outcomes are approximated by their moments; annual reset is not a perpetual high-water mark. Private spreads already include illiquidity compensation. No second premium, dividend or discount-to-NAV gain is added. Net of modelled fund fees, before investor tax. This is a diversified maintained-allocation planning forecast, not the return of a chosen manager. Cash-flow and valuation estimates set geometric planning growth; arithmetic means are inferred once using the same economic volatility as portfolio risk. A lognormal moment approximation is used consistently across the app. It is a modelling assumption, not empirical probability calibration. Sensitivities are not confidence intervals; capital calls, liquidity and manager selection can change realised outcomes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-08
- private Observations:
- 2026-06-30
- private Release:
- 2026-08-13
- private Review:
- 2026-09-08
- credit Spread:
- 2026-10-05
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Listed Private Debt
USD · current model
Nominal USD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/USD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Listed private debt / BDC shares: joint us_large_cap equity beta 0.826 and high_yield beta 0.415, solved together from the app's covariance assumptions. Current arithmetic factor premia over horizon-matched cash, converted with 20.24% economic volatility. Zero net alpha; no assumed manager selection skill. The credit factor uses current portfolio yields after default losses. BDC distributions are not added to total equity returns. This is a factor proxy, not a loan-by-loan or price-to-NAV valuation. Scenarios cross both factor forecasts with net alpha ±2pp; sensitivities are deliberately broad and are not calibrated confidence intervals. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-07
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Listed private debt / BDC shares: joint us_large_cap equity beta 0.826 and high_yield beta 0.415, solved together from the app's covariance assumptions. Current arithmetic factor premia over horizon-matched cash, converted with 20.24% economic volatility. Zero net alpha; no assumed manager selection skill. The credit factor uses current portfolio yields after default losses. BDC distributions are not added to total equity returns. This is a factor proxy, not a loan-by-loan or price-to-NAV valuation. Scenarios cross both factor forecasts with net alpha ±2pp; sensitivities are deliberately broad and are not calibrated confidence intervals. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-07
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Listed private debt / BDC shares: joint us_large_cap equity beta 0.826 and high_yield beta 0.415, solved together from the app's covariance assumptions. Current arithmetic factor premia over horizon-matched cash, converted with 20.24% economic volatility. Zero net alpha; no assumed manager selection skill. The credit factor uses current portfolio yields after default losses. BDC distributions are not added to total equity returns. This is a factor proxy, not a loan-by-loan or price-to-NAV valuation. Scenarios cross both factor forecasts with net alpha ±2pp; sensitivities are deliberately broad and are not calibrated confidence intervals. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-07
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Listed private debt / BDC shares: joint us_large_cap equity beta 0.826 and high_yield beta 0.415, solved together from the app's covariance assumptions. Current arithmetic factor premia over horizon-matched cash, converted with 20.24% economic volatility. Zero net alpha; no assumed manager selection skill. The credit factor uses current portfolio yields after default losses. BDC distributions are not added to total equity returns. This is a factor proxy, not a loan-by-loan or price-to-NAV valuation. Scenarios cross both factor forecasts with net alpha ±2pp; sensitivities are deliberately broad and are not calibrated confidence intervals. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-07
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Listed private debt / BDC shares: joint us_large_cap equity beta 0.826 and high_yield beta 0.415, solved together from the app's covariance assumptions. Current arithmetic factor premia over horizon-matched cash, converted with 20.24% economic volatility. Zero net alpha; no assumed manager selection skill. The credit factor uses current portfolio yields after default losses. BDC distributions are not added to total equity returns. This is a factor proxy, not a loan-by-loan or price-to-NAV valuation. Scenarios cross both factor forecasts with net alpha ±2pp; sensitivities are deliberately broad and are not calibrated confidence intervals. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- cash:
- 2026-10-05
- bonds:
- 2026-10-05
- equity Income:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Review:
- 2026-09-07
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Bitcoin
USD · reference / structural assumption
Portfolio Lab est.
This row has no independent current-data model in the shared forecast workspace. It retains its labelled reference or structural assumption. You can inspect or override its final return; a current model is not inferred from its presence in the catalogue.
Bitcoin thesis methodology. The Bitcoin thesis control in Assumptions supplies the selected return throughout the workstation.
GBP · reference / structural assumption
Portfolio Lab est., derived in GBP
This row has no independent current-data model in the shared forecast workspace. It retains its labelled reference or structural assumption. You can inspect or override its final return; a current model is not inferred from its presence in the catalogue.
Bitcoin thesis methodology. The Bitcoin thesis control in Assumptions supplies the selected return throughout the workstation.
EUR · reference / structural assumption
Portfolio Lab est., derived in EUR
This row has no independent current-data model in the shared forecast workspace. It retains its labelled reference or structural assumption. You can inspect or override its final return; a current model is not inferred from its presence in the catalogue.
Bitcoin thesis methodology. The Bitcoin thesis control in Assumptions supplies the selected return throughout the workstation.
CAD · reference / structural assumption
Portfolio Lab est., derived in CAD
This row has no independent current-data model in the shared forecast workspace. It retains its labelled reference or structural assumption. You can inspect or override its final return; a current model is not inferred from its presence in the catalogue.
Bitcoin thesis methodology. The Bitcoin thesis control in Assumptions supplies the selected return throughout the workstation.
ZAR · reference / structural assumption
Portfolio Lab est., derived in ZAR
This row has no independent current-data model in the shared forecast workspace. It retains its labelled reference or structural assumption. You can inspect or override its final return; a current model is not inferred from its presence in the catalogue.
Bitcoin thesis methodology. The Bitcoin thesis control in Assumptions supplies the selected return throughout the workstation.
Cash / Money Market
USD · current model
New York Fed ACM risk-neutral yield, converted to annual compounding; ±0.5pp sensitivity, not confidence bounds
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
GBP · current model
SONIA observed 2026-10-02; Bank of England participant survey observed 2026-09-04, published 2026-09-18. Dated Bank Rate targets plus the current SONIA-minus-Bank-Rate spread (-0.0183pp), held constant by assumption. Daily ACT/365 compounding, survey terminal rate after its last target. Survey quartile paths are sensitivities, not probability bounds. Gross of fund fees; the basis can change.
- observed:
- 2026-09-04
- rate Date:
- 2026-10-02
- published At:
- 2026-09-18
- forecast Date:
- 2026-10-08
EUR · current model
Horizon-matched EUR overnight cash model.
- observed:
- 2026-08-26
- rate Date:
- 2026-10-05
- published At:
- 2026-09-11
- forecast Date:
- 2026-10-08
CAD · current model
Horizon-matched CAD overnight cash model.
- observed:
- 2026-06-18
- policy Date:
- 2026-10-05
- published At:
- 2026-07-27
- forecast Date:
- 2026-10-08
ZAR · current model
ZARONIA observed 2026-10-05, daily ACT/365 compounding. Portfolio Lab assumes a transition to 6% nominal overnight cash over five years; 5%/7% terminal-rate sensitivities. The terminal rate and transition speed are modelling assumptions reviewed 2026-09-07, not a numerical SARB forecast or a traded forward curve. The SARB statement supports only the qualitative eventual move towards neutral. No government-bond term premium or JIBAR bank-credit spread is treated as cash income. Gross of fees.
- observed:
- 2026-09-07
- rate Date:
- 2026-10-05
- published At:
- 2026-09-07
- forecast Date:
- 2026-10-08
UK All Cap
GBP · current model
MSCI United Kingdom IMI Index. UK structural per-share growth prior. Current income is MSCI UK IMI, an explicitly labelled broad UK all-cap proxy, not the FTSE All-Share benchmark held by the tracked fund. Constituents and coverage differ; no additional size premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
UK Small Cap
GBP · current model
MSCI United Kingdom Small Cap Index. UK structural per-share growth prior applied to MSCI UK Small Cap. No separately verified small-company growth forecast or automatic small-cap premium is claimed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
Euro Area Small Cap
GBP · current model
MSCI EMU Small Cap Index. Eurozone structural per-share growth prior applied to MSCI EMU Small Cap. No extra size premium or extrapolation of recent constituent earnings growth. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
EUR · current model
MSCI EMU Small Cap Index. Eurozone structural per-share growth prior applied to MSCI EMU Small Cap. No extra size premium or extrapolation of recent constituent earnings growth. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
UK Gilts
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw GBP cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched GBP/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGLT: FTSE Actuaries UK Conventional Gilts All Stocks; sterling UK sovereign bonds. GBP portfolio yield 5.18% and duration 6.95 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Local-currency sovereign priors. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.012%; marginal-allocation range 0.012 to 0.012%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +0 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates; the same numeric return translates to each investor currency only under that assumption. FX uncertainty remains. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
UK Short Gilts
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw GBP cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched GBP/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IGL5: FTSE UK Conventional Gilts up to 5 years; short sterling UK sovereign bonds. GBP portfolio yield 4.61% and duration 2.16 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Local-currency sovereign priors. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.012%; marginal-allocation range 0.012 to 0.012%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +0 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates; the same numeric return translates to each investor currency only under that assumption. FX uncertainty remains. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
UK IG Corporate Bonds
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw GBP cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched GBP/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. SLXX: iBoxx GBP liquid investment-grade corporate bonds. GBP portfolio yield 6.17% and duration 5.44 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Corporate rating default priors. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.057%; marginal-allocation range 0.057 to 0.057%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates; the same numeric return translates to each investor currency only under that assumption. FX uncertainty remains. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Euro Govt Bonds (hedged)
GBP · current model
IEGA: Bloomberg Euro Treasury; euro-area sovereign bonds. EUR portfolio yield 3.92% and duration 6.68 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Foreign-currency sovereign priors: S&P classifies euro-area national sovereigns this way because they do not individually control the euro. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.038%; marginal-allocation range 0.038 to 0.038%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +0 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. GBP currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. GBP SONIA 3.7317% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-02); EUR ESTR 2.438% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw EUR cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched EUR/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IEGA: Bloomberg Euro Treasury; euro-area sovereign bonds. EUR portfolio yield 3.92% and duration 6.68 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Foreign-currency sovereign priors: S&P classifies euro-area national sovereigns this way because they do not individually control the euro. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.038%; marginal-allocation range 0.038 to 0.038%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +0 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates; the same numeric return translates to each investor currency only under that assumption. FX uncertainty remains. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Euro Aggregate Bonds (hedged)
GBP · current model
SYBA: Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Bond Index; plain aggregate exposure, replacing the changed ESG/SRI IEAG proxy for current inputs. EUR portfolio yield 3.95% and duration 5.97 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average yield to maturity, gross of fees; not confirmed as yield to worst. Only Treasury exposure receives sovereign priors. Other sectors use corporate rating priors as a conservative proxy, including sub-sovereign, agency and secured exposures. The issuer publishes rating and sector marginals, not their joint allocation; the central allowance assumes independence and the allocation bounds cover every pairing of those marginals. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.036%; marginal-allocation range 0.034 to 0.037%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. GBP currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. GBP SONIA 3.7317% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-02); EUR ESTR 2.438% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw EUR cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched EUR/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. SYBA: Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Bond Index; plain aggregate exposure, replacing the changed ESG/SRI IEAG proxy for current inputs. EUR portfolio yield 3.95% and duration 5.97 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average yield to maturity, gross of fees; not confirmed as yield to worst. Only Treasury exposure receives sovereign priors. Other sectors use corporate rating priors as a conservative proxy, including sub-sovereign, agency and secured exposures. The issuer publishes rating and sector marginals, not their joint allocation; the central allowance assumes independence and the allocation bounds cover every pairing of those marginals. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.036%; marginal-allocation range 0.034 to 0.037%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates; the same numeric return translates to each investor currency only under that assumption. FX uncertainty remains. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
German Govt Bonds (hedged)
GBP · current model
EXHA: eb.rexx Government Germany 1.5–10.5 years; matching historical EXHA proxy. EUR portfolio yield 3.26% and duration 5.08 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Foreign-currency sovereign priors: S&P classifies euro-area national sovereigns this way because they do not individually control the euro. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.006%; marginal-allocation range 0.006 to 0.006%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +0 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. GBP currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. GBP SONIA 3.7317% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-02); EUR ESTR 2.438% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw EUR cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched EUR/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. EXHA: eb.rexx Government Germany 1.5–10.5 years; matching historical EXHA proxy. EUR portfolio yield 3.26% and duration 5.08 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Foreign-currency sovereign priors: S&P classifies euro-area national sovereigns this way because they do not individually control the euro. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.006%; marginal-allocation range 0.006 to 0.006%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +0 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates; the same numeric return translates to each investor currency only under that assumption. FX uncertainty remains. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Italian Govt Bonds (hedged)
GBP · current model
IITB: Bloomberg Italy Treasury; euro-denominated Italian government bonds. EUR portfolio yield 4.19% and duration 6.02 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Foreign-currency sovereign priors: S&P classifies euro-area national sovereigns this way because they do not individually control the euro. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.096%; marginal-allocation range 0.096 to 0.096%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +0 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. GBP currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. GBP SONIA 3.7317% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-02); EUR ESTR 2.438% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw EUR cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched EUR/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IITB: Bloomberg Italy Treasury; euro-denominated Italian government bonds. EUR portfolio yield 4.19% and duration 6.02 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Foreign-currency sovereign priors: S&P classifies euro-area national sovereigns this way because they do not individually control the euro. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.096%; marginal-allocation range 0.096 to 0.096%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +0 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates; the same numeric return translates to each investor currency only under that assumption. FX uncertainty remains. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Euro Covered Bonds (hedged)
GBP · current model
EXHE: German Pfandbriefe covered-bond proxy, matching EXHE history; not the entire euro-area covered-bond universe. EUR portfolio yield 3.61% and duration 4.04 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Corporate rating priors are a conservative planning proxy for this covered-bond sleeve; they do not estimate the benefit of dual recourse or model the cover pool. This calibration gap remains. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.006%; marginal-allocation range 0.006 to 0.006%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. GBP currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. GBP SONIA 3.7317% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-02); EUR ESTR 2.438% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw EUR cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched EUR/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. EXHE: German Pfandbriefe covered-bond proxy, matching EXHE history; not the entire euro-area covered-bond universe. EUR portfolio yield 3.61% and duration 4.04 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Corporate rating priors are a conservative planning proxy for this covered-bond sleeve; they do not estimate the benefit of dual recourse or model the cover pool. This calibration gap remains. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.006%; marginal-allocation range 0.006 to 0.006%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates; the same numeric return translates to each investor currency only under that assumption. FX uncertainty remains. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
German Short Govt Bonds (hedged)
GBP · current model
EXHB: eb.rexx Government Germany 1.5–2.5 years; matching historical EXHB proxy. EUR portfolio yield 3.04% and duration 1.88 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Foreign-currency sovereign priors: S&P classifies euro-area national sovereigns this way because they do not individually control the euro. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.006%; marginal-allocation range 0.006 to 0.006%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +0 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. GBP currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. GBP SONIA 3.7317% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-02); EUR ESTR 2.438% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw EUR cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched EUR/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. EXHB: eb.rexx Government Germany 1.5–2.5 years; matching historical EXHB proxy. EUR portfolio yield 3.04% and duration 1.88 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Foreign-currency sovereign priors: S&P classifies euro-area national sovereigns this way because they do not individually control the euro. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.006%; marginal-allocation range 0.006 to 0.006%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +0 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates; the same numeric return translates to each investor currency only under that assumption. FX uncertainty remains. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Euro IG Corporate Bonds (hedged)
GBP · current model
IEAC: Bloomberg Euro Corporate; euro-denominated investment-grade corporate bonds. EUR portfolio yield 4.27% and duration 4.37 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Corporate rating default priors. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.055%; marginal-allocation range 0.055 to 0.055%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. GBP currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. GBP SONIA 3.7317% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-02); EUR ESTR 2.438% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw EUR cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched EUR/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IEAC: Bloomberg Euro Corporate; euro-denominated investment-grade corporate bonds. EUR portfolio yield 4.27% and duration 4.37 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Corporate rating default priors. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.055%; marginal-allocation range 0.055 to 0.055%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates; the same numeric return translates to each investor currency only under that assumption. FX uncertainty remains. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Euro High Yield Bonds (hedged)
GBP · current model
IHYG: iBoxx EUR Liquid High Yield; euro-denominated high-yield corporate bonds. EUR portfolio yield 6.78% and duration 2.56 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Corporate rating default priors. The issuer reports 0.09% already defaulted (D). It remains in the portfolio at current market value, earns no assumed new yield, and receives a one-time 50% market-value write-down centrally, 100% in stress. This is a conservative planning reserve, not a recovery estimate or a second annual default probability. Aggregate issuer yields do not identify security-level missing-yield coverage; zero-carry scaling can double-reserve excluded income. More than 1% D exposure requires review. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 1.578%; marginal-allocation range 1.578 to 1.578%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. GBP currency hedge: actual currency weights, monthly start-notional reset and covered-interest-parity financing proxy. GBP SONIA 3.7317% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-02); EUR ESTR 2.438% (overnight, observed/decision 2026-10-05). Current financing rates held flat, not a forecast of future policy or executable forwards. 5 bp annual dealing allowance on foreign exposure is our assumption. No observed cross-currency basis. Hedge-cost sensitivity is plus/minus 100 bp annually on foreign exposure. Residual currency and implementation risks remain. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw EUR cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched EUR/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. IHYG: iBoxx EUR Liquid High Yield; euro-denominated high-yield corporate bonds. EUR portfolio yield 6.78% and duration 2.56 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average bond yield: callable holdings use yield to worst; gross of fees. Corporate rating default priors. The issuer reports 0.09% already defaulted (D). It remains in the portfolio at current market value, earns no assumed new yield, and receives a one-time 50% market-value write-down centrally, 100% in stress. This is a conservative planning reserve, not a recovery estimate or a second annual default probability. Aggregate issuer yields do not identify security-level missing-yield coverage; zero-carry scaling can double-reserve excluded income. More than 1% D exposure requires review. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 1.578%; marginal-allocation range 1.578 to 1.578%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +2 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates; the same numeric return translates to each investor currency only under that assumption. FX uncertainty remains. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
UK Index-Linked Gilts 5-15 Yr
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw GBP cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched GBP/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. FTSE Actuaries UK Index-Linked Gilts 5 to 15 Years (IL04), 11 bonds: quoted real redemption yield 2.04% compounded semi-annually and modified duration 9.37 years at 2026-09-30. Monthly real carry is converted once to nominal GBP using 10-year RPI 2.755%. HM Treasury's 2026-08-19 compilation of independent annual RPI forecasts is used through 2030; these are calendar-year averages treated as annual rates. Later years use the terminal CPI forecast plus the DMO's post-reform 0.4pp RPI-CPI planning wedge. This does not apply another reform deduction to the published RPI forecasts. Flat real yields centrally; gradual ±1.5pp real-yield and ±1pp RPI shifts are conditional sensitivities, not probability-calibrated outcomes or confidence bounds. The factsheet does not identify the inflation assumption used for its lag-sensitive real yield and duration; these are administrator-quoted carry/repricing approximations, not a new valuation of every cash flow. Constant duration, first-order repricing, no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Indexation lags, exact coupon timing and index turnover are not individually priced. Gross of fees and tax. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates. RPI-linked UK payments do not protect another country’s purchasing power. Monthly bond observations expire after 45 days; the inflation survey after 120 days. This forecast update does not recalibrate the separate historical risk series.
- observed:
- 2026-09-30
Global REITs
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Nasdaq Developed Markets Real Estate Index: trailing gross ordinary-distribution yield 4.000%, recovered from matched daily price and gross total-return index levels. Same Nasdaq broad real-estate sector proxy used in this row’s risk history. Includes property companies beyond REITs; not an exact FTSE EPRA or fund replication. USD distributions contain historical currency effects. No separate FX trend is added. Real USD index-unit payout trend -2.246% over 2006 to 2025, 20 complete years. Annual payouts are deflated with December US CPI; the missing October 2025 CPI is not filled. Half the log trend gives -1.130% real growth, then horizon-matched US inflation 2.573% gives nominal payout growth. This shrinkage is a planning choice supported by limited chronological diagnostics, not a statistically established best forecast. Historical USD payouts include currency and membership changes. Nominal cash-flow IRR with unchanged exit yield centrally; no extra buyback, FFO, inflation, capex or leverage premium. Dividend growth already reflects issuer reinvestment, dilution and financing. Growth ±2pp and terminal value ±25% over ten years are sensitivities, not probability intervals. Gross of wrapper fees and investor taxes. One conditional path is not probability-calibrated expected compound growth. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- income:
- 2026-10-05
- growth:
- 2025-12-31
- input Checked:
- 2026-10-06
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Nasdaq Developed Markets Real Estate Index: trailing gross ordinary-distribution yield 4.000%, recovered from matched daily price and gross total-return index levels. Same Nasdaq broad real-estate sector proxy used in this row’s risk history. Includes property companies beyond REITs; not an exact FTSE EPRA or fund replication. USD distributions contain historical currency effects. No separate FX trend is added. Real USD index-unit payout trend -2.246% over 2006 to 2025, 20 complete years. Annual payouts are deflated with December US CPI; the missing October 2025 CPI is not filled. Half the log trend gives -1.130% real growth, then horizon-matched US inflation 2.573% gives nominal payout growth. This shrinkage is a planning choice supported by limited chronological diagnostics, not a statistically established best forecast. Historical USD payouts include currency and membership changes. Nominal cash-flow IRR with unchanged exit yield centrally; no extra buyback, FFO, inflation, capex or leverage premium. Dividend growth already reflects issuer reinvestment, dilution and financing. Growth ±2pp and terminal value ±25% over ten years are sensitivities, not probability intervals. Gross of wrapper fees and investor taxes. One conditional path is not probability-calibrated expected compound growth. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- income:
- 2026-10-05
- growth:
- 2025-12-31
- input Checked:
- 2026-10-06
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
UK Listed Property
GBP · current model
Nominal GBP returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/GBP expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Nasdaq United Kingdom Real Estate Index: trailing gross ordinary-distribution yield 5.423%, recovered from matched daily price and gross total-return index levels. Same Nasdaq broad real-estate sector proxy used in this row’s risk history. Includes property companies beyond REITs; not an exact FTSE EPRA or fund replication. USD distributions contain historical currency effects. No separate FX trend is added. Real USD index-unit payout trend -4.476% over 2006 to 2025, 19 complete years; incomplete 2013 excluded. Annual payouts are deflated with December US CPI; the missing October 2025 CPI is not filled. Half the log trend gives -2.264% real growth, then horizon-matched US inflation 2.573% gives nominal payout growth. This shrinkage is a planning choice supported by limited chronological diagnostics, not a statistically established best forecast. Historical USD payouts include currency and membership changes. Nominal cash-flow IRR with unchanged exit yield centrally; no extra buyback, FFO, inflation, capex or leverage premium. Dividend growth already reflects issuer reinvestment, dilution and financing. Growth ±2pp and terminal value ±25% over ten years are sensitivities, not probability intervals. Gross of wrapper fees and investor taxes. One conditional path is not probability-calibrated expected compound growth. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- income:
- 2026-10-05
- growth:
- 2025-12-31
- input Checked:
- 2026-10-06
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
German Large Cap
EUR · current model
DAX. DAX ordinary income recovered from exact EUR price and gross-return variants in the administrator's monthly-published daily history. Uses the provider's ex-date divisor convention. Special payouts already adjusted in both indexes are not recovered in full; differential withholding-tax adjustments and corrections may remain. Related developed ex-US real per-share growth prior; no independently estimated German growth premium. DAX concentration and foreign revenues can differ from that prior. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
DAX. DAX ordinary income recovered from exact EUR price and gross-return variants in the administrator's monthly-published daily history. Uses the provider's ex-date divisor convention. Special payouts already adjusted in both indexes are not recovered in full; differential withholding-tax adjustments and corrections may remain. Related developed ex-US real per-share growth prior; no independently estimated German growth premium. DAX concentration and foreign revenues can differ from that prior. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
German Mid Cap
EUR · reference / structural assumption
JPM LTCMA 2026 EUR European Small Cap, cut to German Mid Cap
This row has no independent current-data model in the shared forecast workspace. It retains its labelled reference or structural assumption. You can inspect or override its final return; a current model is not inferred from its presence in the catalogue.
European Large Cap
EUR · current model
STOXX Europe 600. STOXX Europe 600 broad-cap proxy, matching this row's existing return-history benchmark. Despite the catalogue's European Large Cap name, the index also includes mid and small companies across Europe, including non-euro markets. Ordinary income from exact EUR price/gross histories using the ex-date divisor convention, monthly publication; special distributions already adjusted in both indexes are not recovered in full, and differential tax adjustments may remain. Related developed ex-US real per-share growth assumption, no extra size or buyback premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
CAD · current model
STOXX Europe 600. STOXX Europe 600 broad-cap proxy, matching this row's existing return-history benchmark. Despite the catalogue's European Large Cap name, the index also includes mid and small companies across Europe, including non-euro markets. Ordinary income from exact EUR price/gross histories using the ex-date divisor convention, monthly publication; special distributions already adjusted in both indexes are not recovered in full, and differential tax adjustments may remain. Related developed ex-US real per-share growth assumption, no extra size or buyback premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
European Small Cap
EUR · current model
MSCI Europe Small Cap Index. Related developed ex-US real per-share growth prior for MSCI Europe Small Cap. This Europe benchmark includes the UK and other non-euro markets; it is not MSCI EMU Small Cap. No independently measured European small-cap growth premium, and no extra buyback yield. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
European Listed Property
EUR · current model
Nominal EUR returns. Raw USD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched USD/EUR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. NASDAQ Developed Markets: Europe Real Estate Index: trailing gross ordinary-distribution yield 5.118%, recovered from matched daily price and gross total-return index levels. Same Nasdaq broad real-estate sector proxy used in this row’s risk history. Includes property companies beyond REITs; not an exact FTSE EPRA or fund replication. USD distributions contain historical currency effects. No separate FX trend is added. Real USD index-unit payout trend -4.409% over 2006 to 2025, 20 complete years. Annual payouts are deflated with December US CPI; the missing October 2025 CPI is not filled. Half the log trend gives -2.230% real growth, then horizon-matched US inflation 2.573% gives nominal payout growth. This shrinkage is a planning choice supported by limited chronological diagnostics, not a statistically established best forecast. Historical USD payouts include currency and membership changes. Nominal cash-flow IRR with unchanged exit yield centrally; no extra buyback, FFO, inflation, capex or leverage premium. Dividend growth already reflects issuer reinvestment, dilution and financing. Growth ±2pp and terminal value ±25% over ten years are sensitivities, not probability intervals. Gross of wrapper fees and investor taxes. One conditional path is not probability-calibrated expected compound growth. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- income:
- 2026-10-05
- growth:
- 2025-12-31
- input Checked:
- 2026-10-06
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Canadian Large Cap
CAD · current model
MSCI Canada Custom Capped Index. Related developed ex-US real per-share growth prior. Current income is the exact MSCI Canada Custom Capped benchmark followed by EWC, not the uncapped Canada index. The fund history before September 2017 followed its prior benchmark; its full history remains a Canadian equity proxy. No independently calibrated Canadian growth or concentration premium is claimed. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
Canadian Small Cap
CAD · current model
NASDAQ Canada Small Cap Index. Related developed ex-US real per-share growth prior for the exact Nasdaq Canada Small Cap index. No measured Canadian small-company growth premium is claimed. Income comes from matched daily price and gross-return levels, including source corrections; not ETF distributions or a compounded return gap. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
Canadian Short Bonds
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw CAD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched CAD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. XSB: FTSE Canada Short Term Overall Bond Index; Canadian dollar government and corporate bonds. CAD portfolio yield 3.64% and duration 2.83 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average yield to maturity, gross of fees; not confirmed as yield to worst. Only federal exposure receives sovereign priors. Other sectors use corporate rating priors as a conservative proxy, including sub-sovereign, agency and secured exposures. The issuer publishes rating and sector marginals, not their joint allocation; the central allowance assumes independence and the allocation bounds cover every pairing of those marginals. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.020%; marginal-allocation range 0.018 to 0.022%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates; the same numeric return translates to each investor currency only under that assumption. FX uncertainty remains. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Canadian Universe Bonds
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw CAD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched CAD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. XBB: FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index; Canadian dollar government and corporate bonds. CAD portfolio yield 4.12% and duration 6.65 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average yield to maturity, gross of fees; not confirmed as yield to worst. Only federal exposure receives sovereign priors. Other sectors use corporate rating priors as a conservative proxy, including sub-sovereign, agency and secured exposures. The issuer publishes rating and sector marginals, not their joint allocation; the central allowance assumes independence and the allocation bounds cover every pairing of those marginals. The issuer labels 0.01% as Other, not a credit rating. This residual is retained with a full-loss annual reserve and zero assumed recovery; it is not silently assigned investment-grade credit. More than 1% unclassified exposure requires review. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.029%; marginal-allocation range 0.027 to 0.030%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates; the same numeric return translates to each investor currency only under that assumption. FX uncertainty remains. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Canadian Long Term Universe Bonds
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw CAD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched CAD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. XLB: FTSE Canada Long Term Overall Bond Index; Canadian dollar government and corporate bonds. CAD portfolio yield 4.94% and duration 13.63 years, observed 2026-10-05. Issuer weighted average yield to maturity, gross of fees; not confirmed as yield to worst. Only federal exposure receives sovereign priors. Other sectors use corporate rating priors as a conservative proxy, including sub-sovereign, agency and secured exposures. The issuer publishes rating and sector marginals, not their joint allocation; the central allowance assumes independence and the allocation bounds cover every pairing of those marginals. Dated S&P default studies and explicit minimum allowances use the same research as the other credit models; 40% recovery is a planning assumption. Annual credit loss 0.019%; marginal-allocation range 0.018 to 0.019%. Flat-yield central path, monthly reinvestment and constant-duration first-order repricing; no invented roll-down or convexity gain. Rate shifts ±1.5 percentage points; credit stress +1 points, double defaults and 20% recovery. These are conditional path sensitivities, not probability-calibrated expected outcomes or confidence bounds. Published yield is a carry approximation, not a contractual cash-flow IRR; call/prepayment and rating-migration risks remain. Issuer portfolio aggregates; individual missing-yield coverage is not separately supplied. Small settlement cash balances are preserved. Gross of fees and taxes. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates; the same numeric return translates to each investor currency only under that assumption. FX uncertainty remains. Credit research review due 2027-04-01.
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
Canadian Listed Property
CAD · current model
Nominal CAD returns. Raw CAD cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched CAD/CAD expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. XRE, the same Canadian REIT fund as the risk history. Investment income earned in its latest 6-month accounts to 2026-06-30, after all reported fund expenses, is 0.278182 CAD per weighted-average unit. Annualising that period gives 0.556364 CAD; divided by the 2026-10-05 market close 15.30 CAD, the net investment-income yield is 3.636%. This is a reported-period run rate, not a trailing-twelve-month distribution yield. It includes underlying trust distributions recognised as income, interest and securities lending, while excluding the fund's realised trading gains and unrealised revaluations. Actual cash payouts can exceed earned income; the excess is not added as new return. Tax return-of-capital classifications alone do not measure economic income. Underlying trust distributions can still contain non-recurring items; the available data do not establish sustainable FFO or rental growth. Constant real per-unit income is the central structural baseline, with horizon-matched Canadian inflation 2.039% applied once and unchanged exit income yield. Current income may be seasonal; the half-year annualisation is a forecast assumption. No extra buybacks, capex, leverage premium or second fund-fee deduction. Growth ±2pp and terminal value ±25% over ten years are sensitivities, not probability intervals. Net of this wrapper's reported expenses, before investor taxes. One conditional cash-flow IRR is not probability-calibrated expected compound growth. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- income:
- 2026-06-30
- inflation:
- 2026-07-27
- input Checked:
- 2026-10-06
- observed:
- 2026-10-05
South African Equity
ZAR · current model
MSCI South Africa 25/50 Index. Related emerging ex-China real per-share growth prior. Current income is MSCI South Africa 25/50, matching EZA's capped large- and mid-cap benchmark rather than generic MSCI South Africa. Sector concentration, foreign revenues and local dilution can differ from the broad growth prior; no separately assumed country premium. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-09-30
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
South African Mid Cap
ZAR · current model
NASDAQ South Africa Mid Cap Index. Emerging ex-China structural per-share growth prior for the exact Nasdaq South Africa Mid Cap index. This is a related-market assumption, not South African GDP passed through one-for-one or a measured mid-cap premium. Matched daily price and gross-return levels recover current distributions; no extra buyback yield. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
South African Small Cap
ZAR · current model
NASDAQ South Africa Small Cap Index. Emerging ex-China structural per-share growth prior for the exact Nasdaq South Africa Small Cap index. No extrapolation of survivor earnings, country GDP or size premium. Income is recovered from matched daily price and gross-return levels; future payout, dilution and index membership remain uncertain. Illustrative sensitivities: growth minus/plus 2 percentage points; terminal multiple 25% lower/higher over ten years, scaled geometrically to the horizon. Not probability bounds or worst cases. Unhedged, unchanged real exchange rate (relative purchasing-power parity). Currency risk remains; no house FX-return adjustment is added. Income and terminal value enter the cash-flow calculation; these inputs are not an additive return decomposition.
- price Or Profile:
- 2026-10-05
- structural Growth:
- 2025-12-31
South African Government Bonds
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw ZAR cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched ZAR/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. South African nominal government bonds: Satrix STXGVI tracks the FTSE/JSE All Bond Government Index (GOVI), matching the index exposure of the SARB historical-risk series. Portfolio yield to maturity 8.78% and modified duration 6.50 years observed 2026-08-31. The source was retrieved 2026-10-06; that is not a new observation or publication date. JSE conventional yields compound semi-annually. Monthly carry follows that convention; no inflation, distribution yield or assumed roll-down is added. Treasury's domestic S&P rating BB+, checked 2026-10-06, selects a 10-year local-currency sovereign default allowance of 5.530%. The horizon terminal-wealth factor is 1 minus cumulative default probability times a 60% loss given default. The 40% recovery is a planning assumption, not a current issuer-specific observation. This allowance is smoothed monthly and is not a default-timing model or a repeated constant-rating annual default rate. The result is an annualized credit-adjusted cash-flow scenario, not expected log growth or a probability-calibrated distribution. Flat yields centrally; ±2pp gradual yield shifts and double-default/20%-recovery stress are conditional sensitivities, not confidence bounds. Portfolio yield is an approximation to a changing bond index, not its exact cash-flow IRR; coupon reinvestment, index turnover, convexity, recovery delays and joint default/currency movements are not priced individually. Gross of fund fees and tax. Historical SARB total-return observations include an explicitly identified recent yield/duration extension; that extension is not observed index returns. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates. Yield expires after 45 days and source/rating checks after 10 days.
- observed:
- 2026-08-31
South African Inflation-Linked Bonds
ZAR · current model unavailable
Current South African linker, CPI or sovereign-rating inputs are unavailable. The following method describes the available underlying model; it is not an applicable current forecast for this currency.
JPM LTCMA 2026 ZAR South African Government Bonds, cut to South African Inflation-Linked Bonds
This row has no independent current-data model in the shared forecast workspace. It retains its labelled reference or structural assumption. You can inspect or override its final return; a current model is not inferred from its presence in the catalogue.
South African Listed Property
ZAR · current model
Nominal ZAR returns. Raw ZAR cash-flow model below; its unchanged nominal FX convention applies only within that reference calculation. The final unhedged return is translated once using horizon-matched ZAR/ZAR expected inflation (relative purchasing-power parity). This is a planning assumption, not a guaranteed currency gain; exchange rates can move either way. Satrix Property ETF (STXPRO), the same fund as the risk history. Four consecutive quarterly income distributions through 2026-06-30 total 0.8361 ZAR per unit, using the issuer's cents-per-unit figures, after fund costs and before investor taxes. Dividing by issuer NAV 13.7088 ZAR on 2026-10-05 gives 6.099% net distribution yield. NAV is a fund valuation, not an exchange closing trade; trading premiums and discounts can change an investor's yield. Income is after the fund's costs: no second TER deduction. The fund changed from S&P to FTSE/JSE All Property J803 on 2026-06-19; much of the trailing income was earned by the preceding basket. The current fund includes property holding/development companies and foreign exposures, so the narrower SA REIT industry index's yield and distribution growth are not substituted. Constant real per-unit income is a structural baseline, not measured forward rental or FFO growth. Shared South African CPI 4.012% enters once; unchanged exit income yield centrally. NAV must be no more than seven days old and the issuer document must have been retrieved within ten days. Quarterly distributions and their disclosure have a 135-day maximum age (one quarter plus publication allowance); a monthly factsheet date is not treated as a daily yield observation. No extra buybacks, leverage, capex or property appreciation is added to distributions. Non-recurring distributions and changing membership remain limitations. Growth ±2pp and terminal value ±25% over ten years are sensitivity cases, not probability intervals. Other investor currencies assume unchanged nominal FX, retaining FX risk. Net of fund costs, before investor taxes. One conditional cash-flow IRR is not probability-calibrated expected compound growth. Unhedged, unchanged nominal exchange rates in other investor currencies; FX uncertainty remains. Sensitivities are not probability bounds.
- income:
- 2026-06-30
- disclosure:
- 2026-08-31
- disclosure Published:
- 2026-09-25
- input Checked:
- 2026-10-06
- inflation:
- 2026-09-16
- observed:
- 2026-10-05