Model Portfolios Compared
Eight portfolios that shaped how people actually invest — from the classic 60/40 to Dalio’s All-Weather and the Yale endowment model. Each one is run through the same forward-looking engine, so the numbers below are comparable to each other rather than lifted from whatever period each strategy happened to look best in.
Expected return, risk, and Sharpe ratio
| Portfolio | Exp. return | Volatility | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60/40 Classic | 5.95% | 10.63% | 0.27 |
| All-Weather (Dalio) | 5.06% | 7.41% | 0.26 |
| Permanent Portfolio (Browne) | 4.90% | 6.54% | 0.28 |
| 100% Global Equities | 7.00% | 16.78% | 0.23 |
| Swensen (Yale Endowment) | 7.05% | 11.53% | 0.34 |
| Growth + Alternatives | 7.31% | 13.59% | 0.31 |
| US Retiree | 5.29% | 7.11% | 0.31 |
| Cautious Income | 5.11% | 6.38% | 0.31 |
Expected return and volatility are annualised and computed from J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. Sharpe ratio uses a 3.1% risk-free rate (JPM 2026 US cash). These are forward-looking estimates, not historical results, and not a prediction of any given year.
How to read this
On these assumptions the highest expected return belongs to Growth + Alternatives at 7.31%, the calmest ride to Cautious Income at 6.38% volatility, and the best return per unit of risk to Swensen (Yale Endowment) at a Sharpe of 0.34. That they are three different portfolios is the whole point of looking at all three columns: ranking by expected return alone quietly ranks by how much risk each one takes.
None of that makes it the right portfolio for a given person. A retiree drawing income cares about sequence-of-returns risk in the first five years, which a single Sharpe figure says nothing about. Someone thirty years from retirement can absorb a deep drawdown that would end a decumulation plan. The comparison is a starting point for the question, not the answer to it.
Each portfolio page below shows the full asset breakdown, the same stats with 5–15% Bitcoin added, and the reasoning behind the allocation.
The portfolios
60/40 Classic
5.95% / 10.63% volThe 60/40 portfolio is the most widely referenced balanced allocation in finance: 60% equities, 40% bonds. This page shows its forward-looking expected return, risk, and Sharpe ratio using J.P. Morgan 2026 capital market assumptions.
All-Weather (Dalio)
5.06% / 7.41% volRay Dalio's All-Weather portfolio balances risk across economic regimes: growth, recession, inflation, and deflation. It holds equities, long-term bonds, inflation-linked bonds, gold, and commodities.
Permanent Portfolio (Browne)
4.90% / 6.54% volHarry Browne's Permanent Portfolio allocates 25% each to stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash. Its simplicity is its strength: four uncorrelated assets, rebalanced annually.
100% Global Equities
7.00% / 16.78% volA 100% global equity portfolio maximizes long-term growth potential but carries the highest volatility and drawdown risk. This page shows what to expect using forward-looking data.
Swensen (Yale Endowment)
7.05% / 11.53% volDavid Swensen's approach at Yale revolutionized institutional investing by allocating heavily to alternatives (real estate, private equity) and away from traditional stocks and bonds.
Growth + Alternatives
7.31% / 13.59% volAn aggressive growth portfolio combining equities, alternatives (REITs, infrastructure, private equity, gold), and a 5% Bitcoin allocation. Designed for investors with high risk tolerance and long time horizons.
US Retiree
5.29% / 7.11% volA conservative portfolio designed for US retirees drawing income: heavy in bonds, TIPS, and cash, with modest equity exposure for growth. Prioritizes capital preservation and income over maximum returns.
Cautious Income
5.11% / 6.38% volA capital preservation portfolio with an income focus. Heavy in bonds, TIPS, and cash, with modest equity and REIT exposure for growth and inflation protection.
Build your own instead
These are templates, not recommendations. If you want to solve for your own constraints rather than adopt someone else’s, the optimizer runs the same data across 27 asset classes with five methods.