US Retiree
A conservative portfolio designed for US retirees drawing income: heavy in bonds, TIPS, and cash, with modest equity exposure for growth. Prioritizes capital preservation and income over maximum returns.
Forward-looking estimates over a long horizon, not a measurement of any past period. Built from J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, annualized and compounded, with a 3.10% risk-free rate. The figures are in US dollars. J.P. Morgan publishes the same assumptions in 5 base currencies and the numbers differ between them, since the expected move in the currency is part of the forecast. This page is built once, on the dollar edition; the full app runs on whichever one you choose.
Allocation
What if you add Bitcoin?
These are forward-looking estimates rather than a backtest. Nothing below is what Bitcoin did; it is what the portfolio would return if every asset delivered its expected return from here. Each row funds Bitcoin by reducing the other positions proportionally.
The assumption doing the work is Bitcoin at 15.00% a year with 42.5% volatility. That is far below its history and deliberately so: a forward estimate for an asset this young is a judgment, not an extrapolation. It also explains why the returns below move less than people expect. A 10% position in a 15% asset can only add about a point a year to a portfolio, because it is 10% of the portfolio. What changes more than the return is the Sharpe ratio, which is the column worth reading.
| Portfolio | Return | Volatility | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base (US Retiree) | 5.59% | 7.10% | 0.38 |
| With 3% Bitcoin | 6.06% | 7.42% | 0.43 |
| With 5% Bitcoin | 6.36% | 7.72% | 0.46 |
Returns are geometric (compound), forward-looking and in US dollars, built from J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions with Bitcoin at 15.00% (our own estimate). Sharpe ratio uses a 3.10% risk-free rate. No time period is involved: these are expectations for a long horizon rather than a measurement of any past window. For what this portfolio actually did, month by month, see the historical record back to 1970.
Built to be drawn down, not just grown
A retiree portfolio has a different job from an accumulation portfolio. Its job is to fund 25-35 years of withdrawals without running dry, while keeping pace with inflation, rather than to maximize ending wealth. That changes the math: stability and income matter more than raw return, and the worst-case path matters more than the average one.
This version holds 35% in equities and REITs for growth, 50% across Treasuries, corporate bonds, global government bonds, and TIPS for income and ballast, and 15% cash to fund near-term spending without selling into a downturn.
What it can safely pay out
Using J.P. Morgan's 2026 forward-looking assumptions and 3,000 Monte Carlo paths, this allocation supports a 3.3% initial withdrawal rate at 95% confidence over 30 years, net of a 0.5% annual fund fee. On a $1M portfolio that is $33,000 in the first year, rising with inflation thereafter. The 3% and 5% Bitcoin variants in the table above take it to 3.5% and 3.6%, or $35,000 and $36,000.
That's below the familiar 4% rule, and the gap reflects forward equity and bond returns that are lower than the historical averages the 4% rule was built on. Spending flexibility, trimming withdrawals in bad years, is the single most effective way to push the sustainable rate higher.
Sequence and inflation: the two real threats
Two risks dominate retirement. The first is sequence-of-returns risk: a large market drop in the first few years of withdrawals does far more damage than the same drop later, because you're selling depleted assets to fund spending. The cash buffer and bond ballast here exist to ride out exactly that early-retirement stretch.
The second is inflation, which quietly erodes a fixed income stream. A portfolio heavy in nominal bonds and cash is exposed, which is why this one carries 10% TIPS and 10% REITs for explicit inflation sensitivity. Both risks are part of the case for a small allocation to a high-growth, uncorrelated asset. The table above shows a measured 3-5% Bitcoin position, where a 50% Bitcoin crash would cost only 1.5-2.5% of the total portfolio.
Who this portfolio is for
It suits a retiree or near-retiree whose priority is funding a long retirement reliably: someone drawing income, sensitive to large drawdowns, and willing to accept lower expected return in exchange for a higher probability of not outliving their money.
It's too conservative for an investor still a decade or more from drawing on the portfolio, who is leaving growth on the table. It may also be too cautious for retirees with large guaranteed income from pensions or annuities, who can afford more equity risk with their remaining assets. Pair it with the Safe Withdrawal Rate and Monte Carlo tools to pressure-test your own numbers.
How these numbers are calculated
Expected returns and volatilities come from J.P. Morgan's 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (30th edition), in US dollars. Portfolio risk is computed using the full 57×57 correlation matrix, measured from the assets' own monthly returns, not simple weighted averages. The Sharpe ratio uses 3.10% (US Cash) as the risk-free rate.
For full methodology details, see the methodology page.
Customize this portfolio
Adjust weights, add constraints, try different optimization methods.
Frequently asked questions
What is the best portfolio for a retiree?
There is no single best portfolio. A conservative retiree portfolio typically holds 20-30% equities, 40-50% bonds (including inflation-linked), and 10-20% cash and alternatives. The key is balancing income needs, inflation protection, and growth to sustain withdrawals over a 25-35 year retirement.
Should retirees add Bitcoin to their portfolio?
A small allocation (3-5%) may improve risk-adjusted returns due to Bitcoin's low correlation with traditional assets. At 3%, a 50% Bitcoin crash costs 1.5% of total portfolio value, which is manageable. However, this depends on individual risk tolerance and income needs.
What withdrawal rate is safe for this portfolio?
Using J.P. Morgan 2026 forward-looking assumptions and 3,000 Monte Carlo paths, this allocation supports a 3.3% initial withdrawal rate at 95% confidence over 30 years, net of a 0.5% annual fund fee. Adding a 3% or 5% Bitcoin sleeve raises it to 3.5% and 3.6%. The exact rate depends on asset allocation and spending flexibility.