US Retiree
A conservative portfolio designed for US retirees drawing income: heavy in bonds, TIPS, and cash, with modest equity exposure for growth. Prioritizes capital preservation and income over maximum returns.
Allocation
What if you add Bitcoin?
Adding Bitcoin changes the risk-return profile. Here is how different allocations compare, reducing other positions proportionally:
| Portfolio | Return | Volatility | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base (US Retiree) | 5.29% | 7.11% | 0.31 |
| With 3% Bitcoin | 5.59% | 7.35% | 0.34 |
| With 5% Bitcoin | 5.79% | 7.61% | 0.35 |
Returns are geometric (compound). Sharpe ratio uses 3.10% risk-free rate (US Cash, JPM LTCMA 2026). Forward-looking estimates, not predictions.
Built to be drawn down, not just grown
A retiree portfolio has a different job from an accumulation portfolio. It isn't trying to maximize ending wealth — it's trying to fund 25-35 years of withdrawals without running dry, while keeping pace with inflation. That changes the math: stability and income matter more than raw return, and the worst-case path matters more than the average one.
This version holds roughly 25% in equities and REITs for growth, around 50% across Treasuries, corporate bonds, global government bonds, and TIPS for income and ballast, and 15% cash to fund near-term spending without selling into a downturn.
What it can safely pay out
Using J.P. Morgan's 2026 forward-looking assumptions and Monte Carlo simulation, this allocation supports roughly a 3.2-3.8% initial withdrawal rate at 95% confidence over 30 years. On a $1M portfolio that's about $32,000-$38,000 in the first year, rising with inflation thereafter.
That's below the familiar 4% rule, and the gap is not conservatism for its own sake — it reflects forward equity and bond returns that are lower than the historical averages the 4% rule was built on. Spending flexibility, trimming withdrawals in bad years, is the single most effective way to push the sustainable rate higher.
Sequence and inflation: the two real threats
Two risks dominate retirement. The first is sequence-of-returns risk: a large market drop in the first few years of withdrawals does far more damage than the same drop later, because you're selling depleted assets to fund spending. The cash buffer and bond ballast here exist to ride out exactly that early-retirement stretch.
The second is inflation, which quietly erodes a fixed income stream. A portfolio heavy in nominal bonds and cash is exposed, which is why this one carries 10% TIPS and 10% REITs for explicit inflation sensitivity. Both risks are part of the case for a small allocation to a high-growth, uncorrelated asset — the table above shows a measured 3-5% Bitcoin position, where a 50% Bitcoin crash would cost only 1.5-2.5% of the total portfolio.
Who this portfolio is for
It suits a retiree or near-retiree whose priority is funding a long retirement reliably: someone drawing income, sensitive to large drawdowns, and willing to accept lower expected return in exchange for a higher probability of not outliving their money.
It's too conservative for an investor still a decade or more from drawing on the portfolio — they're leaving growth on the table — and it may be too cautious for retirees with large guaranteed income from pensions or annuities who can afford more equity risk with their remaining assets. Pair it with the Safe Withdrawal Rate and Monte Carlo tools to pressure-test your own numbers.
How these numbers are calculated
Expected returns and volatilities come from J.P. Morgan's 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (30th edition). Portfolio risk is computed using the full 27x27 correlation matrix, not simple weighted averages. The Sharpe ratio uses 3.10% (US Cash) as the risk-free rate.
For full methodology details, see the methodology page.
Customize this portfolio
Adjust weights, add constraints, try different optimization methods.