100% Global Equities
A 100% global equity portfolio maximizes long-term growth potential but carries the highest volatility and drawdown risk. This page shows what to expect using forward-looking data.
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Forward-looking estimates over a long horizon, not a measurement of any past period. Built from J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, annualized and compounded, with a 3.10% risk-free rate. The figures are in US dollars. J.P. Morgan publishes the same assumptions in 5 base currencies and the numbers differ between them, since the expected move in the currency is part of the forecast. This page is built once, on the dollar edition; the full app runs on whichever one you choose.
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Total: 100.0%.
- Expected annual return
- 7.00%
- Annual volatility
- 16.78%
Uses this page’s USD reference assumptions. These are estimates, not guaranteed returns or a maximum possible loss. Account saves keep the allocation, not these calculated figures. The workstation uses its selected assumptions, so its results may differ.
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What if you add Bitcoin?
These are forward-looking estimates rather than a backtest. Nothing below is what Bitcoin did; it is what the portfolio would return if every asset delivered its expected return from here. Each row funds Bitcoin by reducing the other positions proportionally.
The assumption doing the work is Bitcoin at 15.00% a year with 42.5% volatility. That is far below its history and deliberately so: a forward estimate for an asset this young is a judgment, not an extrapolation. It also explains why the returns below move less than people expect. A 10% position in a 15% asset can only add about a point a year to a portfolio, because it is 10% of the portfolio. What changes more than the return is the Sharpe ratio, which is the column worth reading.
| Portfolio | Return | Volatility | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base (100% Global Equities) | 7.00% | 16.78% | 0.31 |
| With 5% Bitcoin | 7.69% | 16.76% | 0.35 |
| With 10% Bitcoin | 8.34% | 16.99% | 0.38 |
| With 15% Bitcoin | 8.95% | 17.44% | 0.41 |
Returns are geometric (compound), forward-looking and in US dollars, built from J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions with Bitcoin at 15.00% (our own estimate). Sharpe ratio uses a 3.10% risk-free rate. No time period is involved: these are expectations for a long horizon rather than a measurement of any past window. For what this portfolio actually did, month by month, see the historical record back to 1970.
Maximum growth, maximum stomach
A 100% global equity portfolio is the simplest aggressive strategy there is: own the world's public companies and nothing else. Over long horizons it has the highest expected return of any liquid portfolio, because you're capturing the full equity risk premium with no bond or cash drag to dilute it.
The catch is entirely in the journey. With no ballast, the portfolio inherits the full force of every bear market, and global equities have repeatedly fallen 40-50% and taken years to recover. The return is real, but only for an investor who actually stays invested through those declines.
Why the forward estimate is ~7%, not 10%
US equities have historically returned around 10% a year, which is the number most DIY investors anchor to. J.P. Morgan's 2026 assumptions put forward global equities closer to 7% with roughly 17% volatility (shown above). The gap is mostly valuation: starting from today's elevated multiples, especially in the US, statistically implies lower future returns.
This is the single most important adjustment for anyone planning around an all-equity portfolio. Building a retirement or FIRE plan on 10% when the forward estimate is 7% can overstate your ending wealth by a wide margin over 20-30 years. The numbers here use the forward estimate deliberately.
Sequence risk is the real enemy
For an accumulator still adding money, volatility is tolerable and even helpful, because downturns let you buy cheaply. The danger arrives near and after retirement, when a large crash early in your withdrawal years can permanently impair the portfolio. This is sequence-of-returns risk, and it's why a 100% equity allocation rarely survives contact with retirement intact.
The honest framing: 100% equities is a wealth-accumulation engine, not a retirement portfolio. Many investors run it for decades, then glide toward bonds and cash as they approach the point where they'll need to draw on it.
Who should hold 100% equities
It suits a young investor with a 20-40 year horizon, stable income, no near-term need for the money, and above all the temperament to do nothing during a 45% crash. If you've never lived through a bear market with real money invested, assume your risk tolerance is lower than you think.
It's the wrong portfolio for anyone within a decade of needing the funds, or anyone who has sold in a past panic. For investors who want most of the growth with less of the terror, even a small allocation to bonds, gold, or Bitcoin meaningfully changes the drawdown profile. The variant table above shows what adding Bitcoin does to the risk and return.
How these numbers are calculated
Expected returns and volatilities come from J.P. Morgan's 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (30th edition), in US dollars. Portfolio risk is computed using the full 57×57 correlation matrix, measured from the assets' own monthly returns, not simple weighted averages. The Sharpe ratio uses 3.10% (US Cash) as the risk-free rate.
For full methodology details, see the methodology page.
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Frequently asked questions
Should I invest 100% in equities?
A 100% equity portfolio maximizes long-term expected return but exposes you to the largest drawdowns. Using J.P. Morgan 2026 assumptions, global equities have an expected geometric return around 7% with ~17% volatility. Whether this is right depends on your time horizon, risk tolerance, and whether you can avoid selling during a 40-50% crash.
What is the expected return of global equities in 2026?
J.P. Morgan's 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions estimate a 7.0% geometric return for AC World equities with 16.8% volatility over a 10-15 year horizon. This is lower than the long-term historical average due to elevated current valuations, particularly in US markets.