All-Weather (Dalio)
Ray Dalio's All-Weather portfolio balances risk across economic regimes: growth, recession, inflation, and deflation. It holds equities, long-term bonds, inflation-linked bonds, gold, and commodities.
Allocation
What if you add Bitcoin?
Adding Bitcoin changes the risk-return profile. Here is how different allocations compare, reducing other positions proportionally:
| Portfolio | Return | Volatility | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base (All-Weather (Dalio)) | 5.06% | 7.41% | 0.26 |
| With 5% Bitcoin | 5.56% | 7.92% | 0.31 |
| With 10% Bitcoin | 6.06% | 8.89% | 0.33 |
Returns are geometric (compound). Sharpe ratio uses 3.10% risk-free rate (US Cash, JPM LTCMA 2026). Forward-looking estimates, not predictions.
How these numbers are calculated
Expected returns and volatilities come from J.P. Morgan's 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (30th edition). Portfolio risk is computed using the full 27x27 correlation matrix, not simple weighted averages. The Sharpe ratio uses 3.10% (US Cash) as the risk-free rate.
For full methodology details, see the methodology page.
Customize this portfolio
Adjust weights, add constraints, try different optimization methods.