Research Affiliates Capital Market Assumptions 2026
Research Affiliates forecasts 3.1% a year from US equities over the next decade, 2.9 percentage points below the median of the 14 houses we track.
Source: Asset Allocation Interactive, January 2026. All figures are 10-year nominal geometric returns in USD. Reviewed 16 August 2026.
| Asset class | Research Affiliates | Median of 14 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| US equities | 3.1% | 6.0% | -2.9pp |
| International developed | 7.7% | 7.2% | +0.5pp |
| Emerging markets | 7.5% | 7.7% | -0.2pp |
| US aggregate bonds | 5.1% | 4.7% | +0.4pp |
How Research Affiliates builds the number
Valuation-driven. Treats starting valuations as the dominant driver of seven to ten year returns. With the Shiller CAPE near 34, roughly double its long-term average, this approach produces the most cautious forecasts in the industry.
Method explains most of the disagreement between houses. Across the 14 firms publishing point estimates the spread on US equities is 4.5 percentage points, while on US bonds, where the answer is mostly a matter of observable yields, it is 1.0. Uncertainty concentrates where forecasting is hardest.
Where Research Affiliates sits among the 14
On US equities, Research Affiliates is the most cautious of the 14 houses publishing a point estimate, at 3.1% against a range of 3.1% to 7.6%.
| House | US equities |
|---|---|
| Research Affiliates | 3.1% |
| Invesco | 4.7% |
| BlackRock | 5.2% |
| PGIM | 5.2% |
| Morningstar | 5.3% |
| Verus | 5.4% |
| Schwab | 5.9% |
| Amundi | 6.1% |
| AQR | 6.3% |
| Meketa | 6.4% |
| J.P. Morgan | 6.7% |
| Northern Trust | 6.8% |
| Callan | 7.3% |
| BNY Mellon | 7.6% |
For the full comparison across all four asset classes, where the houses agree and why they disagree, see what 16 firms expect from the next decade.
Build a portfolio on these numbers
Portfolio Lab optimises across 27 asset classes on J.P. Morgan's 2026 assumptions, and lets you override any expected return with a different house's view to see how much the answer actually moves.
Open the optimiserFigures as published by Research Affiliates in Asset Allocation Interactive, January 2026, reviewed 16 August 2026 and re-checked when each house issues a new edition. Portfolio Lab is not affiliated with Research Affiliates. This is analysis, not investment advice.