J.P. Morgan Capital Market Assumptions 2026
J.P. Morgan forecasts 6.7% a year from US equities in this source edition, 0.3 percentage points above the median of the 14 houses we track.
Source: Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions 2026, 30th edition. Figures are annual percentages. Source horizons, currencies and index definitions differ; a missing table cell means no comparable point estimate is included here. Page updated 9 September 2026.
Read J.P. Morgan’s own assumptions ↗| Asset class | J.P. Morgan | Survey median | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| US equities | 6.7% | 6.5%14 point estimates | +0.3pp |
| International developed | 7.5% | 7.3%12 point estimates | +0.2pp |
| Emerging markets | 7.8% | 7.8%14 point estimates | in line |
| US aggregate bonds | 4.8% | 4.8%14 point estimates | in line |
TRY THE PUBLISHED ASSUMPTIONS · NO ACCOUNT NEEDED
What would this return mean for your savings?
Change the house, your starting amount or monthly saving. This illustrates a US equity investment over ten years in US dollars, before inflation, fees and taxes.
Illustrated value after ten years at 6.7% a year
$191,269
You contribute $100,000 in total. Monthly savings are added at month end.
Source edition: Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions 2026, 30th edition. Editions, benchmarks and source horizons differ. Applying a quoted rate for ten years is an illustration, not a new forecast from that firm.
How the calculation works
Without added savings: starting amount × (1 + annual return) to the power of ten. With savings, the annual compound rate is converted to its equivalent monthly rate. Each month earns that rate before the next contribution is added. Markets will not follow this smooth path. This is not a simulation, retirement success probability, or forecast of a mixed portfolio.
Your portfolio probably includes more than US equities. In the free app, inspect and change the return assumptions for your own mix, then test the result. These published figures are reference inputs; this illustration does not change your saved portfolio.
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PUBLISHED 2026 EDITION · 10 TO 15 YEARS
Which currency are J.P. Morgan’s forecasts in?
Choose the currency in which you measure your investment. These are selected compound-return assumptions from the published 2026 edition, not market updates or Portfolio Lab’s current forecasts.
Annual compound return in USD
- U.S. Large CapNo currency hedge applied in this row
- 6.7%
- U.S. Aggregate BondsNo currency hedge applied in this row
- 4.8%
- U.S. CashNo currency hedge applied in this row
- 3.1%
The cash and domestic bond benchmarks differ across currencies. The US aggregate bond row is currency hedged in the non-dollar editions shown here. A higher number in another currency is not automatically a better investment.
A hedge reduces exchange-rate exposure and has financing effects; it does not remove the investment’s other risks. The unhedged US equity row retains currency exposure. These are nominal estimates before your personal taxes and investment costs, not guaranteed outcomes.
Open J.P. Morgan’s current USD workbook download. J.P. Morgan updates this download as new editions appear. The figures shown here come from its 2026 edition, released in October 2025.
For today’s app models, see the dated Portfolio Lab assumptions snapshot. For currency treatment, see how currency and hedging affect a forecast.
How J.P. Morgan builds the number
Building blocks. Decomposes equity returns into revenue growth, buyback yield, dividend yield, margin change and valuation impact. Anchoring to economic growth and corporate fundamentals tends to produce forecasts in the 6.5% to 7.5% range.
Method explains most of the disagreement between houses. Across the 14 firms publishing point estimates the spread on US equities is 5.9 percentage points, while on US bonds, where the answer is mostly a matter of observable yields, it is 0.8. Uncertainty concentrates where forecasting is hardest.
What changed in the 2027 edition?
J.P. Morgan published its 2027 assumptions on 19 October 2026. It projects a 7.0% annual return over 10 to 15 years for its USD 60/40 portfolio and expects a higher correlation between stocks and bonds. The Portfolio Lab reference figures on this page still use the 2026 edition. Our workstation adjusts that edition for subsequent market moves.
Read J.P. Morgan’s 2027 releaseHow market prices change the 2026 reference
Keep the weights fixed at 60% global equities and 40% US aggregate bonds. The first column uses J.P. Morgan’s USD edition dated 2025-09-30. The second uses Portfolio Lab’s market adjustment. The latest yield snapshot is dated 2026-11-12. Each calculation below identifies the observations it uses.
| Asset and weight | Published | Market-adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| Global equities (60%) | 7.00% | 6.49% |
| US aggregate bonds (40%) | 4.80% | 6.05% |
| Weighted inputs | 6.12% | 6.31% |
The weighted inputs show how much each forecast contributes. Estimating compound growth for a rebalanced portfolio also requires its volatility and correlations.
See the two adjustments
From 2025-09-30 through 2026-10, estimated USD price growth was 12.6% against 6.3% of assumed earnings growth, so it re-rated up by 5.9%. Unwinding that over 12 years moves the forecast by -0.51pp after compounding.
On 2025-09-30 the yield was 3.97% and they forecast 4.80%, a forecast-minus-yield adjustment of 0.83pp. The stored yield is 5.22%, so preserving that adjustment gives 6.05%. The adjustment includes the house's other assumptions; it is not an estimate of default losses alone.
The survey median compares available point estimates from different editions and benchmarks. It is not a combined probability distribution or a forecast for your portfolio.Read the comparison and download its source-labelled CSV.
Where J.P. Morgan sits among the 14
On US equities, J.P. Morgan is the 10th most cautious of the 14 houses publishing a point estimate, at 6.7% against a range of 3.1% to 9.0%.
| House | US equities |
|---|---|
| Research Affiliates | 3.1% |
| Invesco | 4.7% |
| Morningstar | 5.3% |
| Verus | 5.4% |
| Schwab | 5.9% |
| AQR | 6.3% |
| Meketa | 6.4% |
| PGIM | 6.5% |
| Amundi | 6.5% |
| J.P. Morgan | 6.7% |
| Northern Trust | 6.8% |
| Callan | 7.3% |
| BNY Mellon | 7.6% |
| BlackRock | 9.0% |
For the full comparison across all four asset classes, where the houses agree and why they disagree, see what 18 firms expect from the next decade.
Test the assumptions behind your portfolio
Portfolio Lab covers 57 asset classes with editable return models and published forecasts for comparison. Choose among 5 base currencies, inspect each forecast's building blocks, and test your own portfolio. The app's current models and these dated house publications can give different answers.
Open the optimizerThe other houses
Each firm publishes its own numbers on its own schedule, and they disagree by more than most people expect. One page each, plus the Horizon Actuarial survey, which averages what 43 advisors submit privately.
Figures as published by J.P. Morgan in Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions 2026, 30th edition. Page updated 9 September 2026; source dates are shown separately. Portfolio Lab is not affiliated with J.P. Morgan. This is analysis, not investment advice.