J.P. Morgan Capital Market Assumptions 2026

J.P. Morgan forecasts 6.7% a year from US equities over the next decade, 0.7 percentage points above the median of the 14 houses we track.

Source: Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions 2026, 30th edition. All figures are 10-year nominal geometric returns in USD. Reviewed 16 August 2026.

Asset class	J.P. Morgan	Median of 14	Difference
US equities	6.7%	6.0%	+0.7pp
International developed	7.5%	7.2%	+0.3pp
Emerging markets	7.8%	7.7%	+0.1pp
US aggregate bonds	4.8%	4.7%	+0.1pp

The assumptions Portfolio Lab runs on. Thirty editions deep, and the most widely used single reference in the industry, which is why we use it as the default rather than the most optimistic or most cautious set.

How J.P. Morgan builds the number

Building blocks. Decomposes equity returns into revenue growth, buyback yield, dividend yield, margin change and valuation impact. Anchoring to economic growth and corporate fundamentals tends to produce forecasts in the 6.5% to 7.5% range.

Method explains most of the disagreement between houses. Across the 14 firms publishing point estimates the spread on US equities is 4.5 percentage points, while on US bonds, where the answer is mostly a matter of observable yields, it is 1.0. Uncertainty concentrates where forecasting is hardest.

Where J.P. Morgan sits among the 14

On US equities, J.P. Morgan is the 11th most cautious of the 14 houses publishing a point estimate, at 6.7% against a range of 3.1% to 7.6%.

House	US equities
Research Affiliates	3.1%
Invesco	4.7%
BlackRock	5.2%
PGIM	5.2%
Morningstar	5.3%
Verus	5.4%
Schwab	5.9%
Amundi	6.1%
AQR	6.3%
Meketa	6.4%
J.P. Morgan	6.7%
Northern Trust	6.8%
Callan	7.3%
BNY Mellon	7.6%

For the full comparison across all four asset classes, where the houses agree and why they disagree, see what 16 firms expect from the next decade.

Build a portfolio on these numbers

Portfolio Lab optimises across 27 asset classes on J.P. Morgan's 2026 assumptions, and lets you override any expected return with a different house's view to see how much the answer actually moves.

Open the optimiser

Figures as published by J.P. Morgan in Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions 2026, 30th edition, reviewed 16 August 2026 and re-checked when each house issues a new edition. Portfolio Lab is not affiliated with J.P. Morgan. This is analysis, not investment advice.