PIMCO Capital Market Assumptions 2026

PIMCO publishes long-horizon return forecasts but no single figure for US equities; this comparison includes no comparable point estimate. Follow the source for its full forecasts and horizon.

Source: PIMCO Capital Market Assumptions, semiannual, five-year horizon. Figures are annual percentages. Source horizons, currencies and index definitions differ; a missing table cell means no comparable point estimate is included here. Page updated 9 September 2026.

Read PIMCO’s own assumptions ↗

Asset class	PIMCO	Survey median	Difference
US equities	n/a	6.3%14 point estimates	n/a
International developed	n/a	7.3%12 point estimates	n/a
Emerging markets	n/a	7.7%14 point estimates	n/a
US aggregate bonds	n/a	4.8%14 point estimates	n/a

Forecasts over five years, not ten, and says so in its own words: 'Five-year forecasts in our latest semiannual capital market assumptions'. A five-year number is not a shorter version of a ten-year one, because the shorter the horizon the more of the answer is starting valuation rather than underlying growth. Included here so the omission is explained rather than assumed to be an oversight.

The survey median compares available point estimates from different editions and benchmarks. It is not a combined probability distribution or a forecast for your portfolio.Read the comparison and download its source-labelled CSV.

Where PIMCO sits among the 14

No comparable US equity point estimate is included for PIMCO. It is excluded from the ranking below.

House	US equities
Research Affiliates	3.1%
Invesco	4.7%
PGIM	5.2%
Morningstar	5.3%
Verus	5.4%
Schwab	5.9%
AQR	6.3%
Meketa	6.4%
Amundi	6.5%
J.P. Morgan	6.7%
Northern Trust	6.8%
Callan	7.3%
BNY Mellon	7.6%
BlackRock	9.0%

For the full comparison across all four asset classes, where the houses agree and why they disagree, see what 18 firms expect from the next decade.

Test the assumptions behind your portfolio

Portfolio Lab covers 57 asset classes with editable return models and published forecasts for comparison. Choose among 5 base currencies, inspect each forecast's building blocks, and test your own portfolio. The app's current models and these dated house publications can give different answers.

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The other houses

Each firm publishes its own numbers on its own schedule, and they disagree by more than most people expect. One page each, plus the Horizon Actuarial survey, which averages what 43 advisors submit privately.

Figures as published by PIMCO in PIMCO Capital Market Assumptions, semiannual, five-year horizon. Page updated 9 September 2026; source dates are shown separately. Portfolio Lab is not affiliated with PIMCO. This is analysis, not investment advice.