PIMCO Capital Market Assumptions 2026

PIMCO forecasts — a year from US equities over the next decade, in line with the median of the 14 houses we track.

Source: PIMCO Capital Market Assumptions, semiannual, five-year horizon. All figures are 10-year nominal geometric returns in USD. Reviewed 16 August 2026.

Read PIMCO’s own assumptions ↗

Asset class	PIMCO	Median of 14	Difference
US equities	—	6.0%	—
International developed	—	7.2%	—
Emerging markets	—	7.7%	—
US aggregate bonds	—	4.7%	—

Forecasts over five years, not ten, and says so in its own words: 'Five-year forecasts in our latest semiannual capital market assumptions'. A five-year number is not a shorter version of a ten-year one, because the shorter the horizon the more of the answer is starting valuation rather than underlying growth. Included here so the omission is explained rather than assumed to be an oversight.

Where PIMCO sits among the 14

PIMCO publishes a range rather than a point estimate, so it does not appear in the ranking below.

House	US equities
Research Affiliates	3.1%
Invesco	4.7%
BlackRock	5.2%
PGIM	5.2%
Morningstar	5.3%
Verus	5.4%
Schwab	5.9%
Amundi	6.1%
AQR	6.3%
Meketa	6.4%
J.P. Morgan	6.7%
Northern Trust	6.8%
Callan	7.3%
BNY Mellon	7.6%

For the full comparison across all four asset classes, where the houses agree and why they disagree, see what 16 firms expect from the next decade.

Build a portfolio on these numbers

Portfolio Lab optimizes across 42 asset classes on J.P. Morgan's 2026 assumptions, and lets you override any expected return with a different house's view to see how much the answer actually moves.

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The other houses

Each firm publishes its own numbers on its own schedule, and they disagree by more than most people expect. The same four asset classes, forecast by everyone else who publishes a view.

Figures as published by PIMCO in PIMCO Capital Market Assumptions, semiannual, five-year horizon, reviewed 16 August 2026 and re-checked when each house issues a new edition. Portfolio Lab is not affiliated with PIMCO. This is analysis, not investment advice.