AQR Capital Market Assumptions 2026
AQR forecasts 6.3% a year from US equities over the next decade, 0.3 percentage points above the median of the 14 houses we track.
Source: Capital Market Assumptions 2026. All figures are 10-year nominal geometric returns in USD. Reviewed 16 August 2026.
| Asset class | AQR | Median of 14 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| US equities | 6.3% | 6.0% | +0.3pp |
| International developed | 6.9% | 7.2% | -0.3pp |
| Emerging markets | 7.4% | 7.7% | -0.3pp |
| US aggregate bonds | 4.9% | 4.7% | +0.2pp |
How AQR builds the number
Factor / risk premia. Decomposes returns into systematic risk premia: equity, value, quality, momentum. Accounts for valuation without assuming full mean reversion, which lands these forecasts between the other two camps.
Method explains most of the disagreement between houses. Across the 14 firms publishing point estimates the spread on US equities is 4.5 percentage points, while on US bonds, where the answer is mostly a matter of observable yields, it is 1.0. Uncertainty concentrates where forecasting is hardest.
Where AQR sits among the 14
On US equities, AQR is the 9th most cautious of the 14 houses publishing a point estimate, at 6.3% against a range of 3.1% to 7.6%.
| House | US equities |
|---|---|
| Research Affiliates | 3.1% |
| Invesco | 4.7% |
| BlackRock | 5.2% |
| PGIM | 5.2% |
| Morningstar | 5.3% |
| Verus | 5.4% |
| Schwab | 5.9% |
| Amundi | 6.1% |
| AQR | 6.3% |
| Meketa | 6.4% |
| J.P. Morgan | 6.7% |
| Northern Trust | 6.8% |
| Callan | 7.3% |
| BNY Mellon | 7.6% |
For the full comparison across all four asset classes, where the houses agree and why they disagree, see what 16 firms expect from the next decade.
Build a portfolio on these numbers
Portfolio Lab optimises across 27 asset classes on J.P. Morgan's 2026 assumptions, and lets you override any expected return with a different house's view to see how much the answer actually moves.
Open the optimiserFigures as published by AQR in Capital Market Assumptions 2026, reviewed 16 August 2026 and re-checked when each house issues a new edition. Portfolio Lab is not affiliated with AQR. This is analysis, not investment advice.