AQR Capital Market Assumptions 2026
AQR forecasts 6.3% a year from US equities in this source edition, in line with the median of the 14 houses we track.
Source: Capital Market Assumptions 2026. Figures are annual percentages. Source horizons, currencies and index definitions differ; a missing table cell means no comparable point estimate is included here. Page updated 9 September 2026.
Read AQR’s own assumptions ↗| Asset class | AQR | Survey median | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| US equities | 6.3% | 6.3%14 point estimates | in line |
| International developed | 6.9% | 7.3%12 point estimates | -0.4pp |
| Emerging markets | 7.4% | 7.7%14 point estimates | -0.3pp |
| US aggregate bonds | 4.9% | 4.8%14 point estimates | +0.2pp |
TRY THE PUBLISHED ASSUMPTIONS · NO ACCOUNT NEEDED
What would this return mean for your savings?
Change the house, your starting amount or monthly saving. This illustrates a US equity investment over ten years in US dollars, before inflation, fees and taxes.
Illustrated value after ten years at 6.3% a year
$184,218
You contribute $100,000 in total. Monthly savings are added at month end.
Source edition: Capital Market Assumptions 2026. Editions, benchmarks and source horizons differ. Applying a quoted rate for ten years is an illustration, not a new forecast from that firm.
How the calculation works
Without added savings: starting amount × (1 + annual return) to the power of ten. With savings, the annual compound rate is converted to its equivalent monthly rate. Each month earns that rate before the next contribution is added. Markets will not follow this smooth path. This is not a simulation, retirement success probability, or forecast of a mixed portfolio.
Your portfolio probably includes more than US equities. In the free app, inspect and change the return assumptions for your own mix, then test the result. These published figures are reference inputs; this illustration does not change your saved portfolio.
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How AQR builds the number
Factor / risk premia. Decomposes returns into systematic risk premia: equity, value, quality, momentum. The resulting forecast depends on the source edition, scenario and horizon; this label does not determine where a house ranks.
Method explains most of the disagreement between houses. Across the 14 firms publishing point estimates the spread on US equities is 5.9 percentage points, while on US bonds, where the answer is mostly a matter of observable yields, it is 0.8. Uncertainty concentrates where forecasting is hardest.
The survey median compares available point estimates from different editions and benchmarks. It is not a combined probability distribution or a forecast for your portfolio.Read the comparison and download its source-labelled CSV.
Where AQR sits among the 14
On US equities, AQR is the 7th most cautious of the 14 houses publishing a point estimate, at 6.3% against a range of 3.1% to 9.0%.
| House | US equities |
|---|---|
| Research Affiliates | 3.1% |
| Invesco | 4.7% |
| PGIM | 5.2% |
| Morningstar | 5.3% |
| Verus | 5.4% |
| Schwab | 5.9% |
| AQR | 6.3% |
| Meketa | 6.4% |
| Amundi | 6.5% |
| J.P. Morgan | 6.7% |
| Northern Trust | 6.8% |
| Callan | 7.3% |
| BNY Mellon | 7.6% |
| BlackRock | 9.0% |
For the full comparison across all four asset classes, where the houses agree and why they disagree, see what 18 firms expect from the next decade.
Test the assumptions behind your portfolio
Portfolio Lab covers 57 asset classes with editable return models and published forecasts for comparison. Choose among 5 base currencies, inspect each forecast's building blocks, and test your own portfolio. The app's current models and these dated house publications can give different answers.
Open the optimizerThe other houses
Each firm publishes its own numbers on its own schedule, and they disagree by more than most people expect. One page each, plus the Horizon Actuarial survey, which averages what 43 advisors submit privately.
Figures as published by AQR in Capital Market Assumptions 2026. Page updated 9 September 2026; source dates are shown separately. Portfolio Lab is not affiliated with AQR. This is analysis, not investment advice.