TOOLS / BITCOIN CORRELATION DASHBOARD

Does Bitcoin still move with stocks?

Rolling correlations between Bitcoin, equities and gold over whatever window you choose. Correlation is not a constant, which is the whole reason to watch it roll.

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Bitcoin & Gold: Correlation with Every Asset Class

Sorted by Bitcoin correlation (ascending). Lower = better diversifier. Source: correlations measured from the assets' own monthly returns; returns and volatilities from J.P. Morgan's 2026 LTCMA, dollar edition; each base currency has its own matrix.

Rolling Bitcoin-Gold Correlation

Pearson correlation of weekly returns over a rolling window.

+0.20
current
vs
BTC-Gold
+0.10
Low: diversifies each other
BTC-Equities
+0.33
Moderate correlation
Gold-Equities
+0.09
Very low correlation
BTC-Bonds
+0.11
Near-zero / negative

The diversification case for both

Bitcoin correlates with global equities at +0.33, while Gold correlates with aggregate bonds at +0.37. But their mutual correlation is just +0.10, making them effective diversifiers of each other. A portfolio holding both captures two distinct return streams: Bitcoin's growth premium and Gold's flight-to-safety behavior, with minimal overlap.

Methodology & Sources

Correlation matrix: measured from the assets' own monthly returns over their overlapping histories (one Stambaugh assembly, since 30 August 2026), so a pair reads what its history says rather than a published estimate. Returns and volatilities are J.P. Morgan's 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, dollar edition.

Rolling correlation: Pearson correlation of weekly returns over the selected window. BTC prices from CoinGecko; Gold prices from Frankfurter/LBMA.

Correlations are not constant. They shift during crises and macro regime changes. The bar chart shows long-term strategic estimates; the rolling chart shows real-time dynamics.

Bitcoin vs Gold ComparisonBitcoin Allocation CalculatorCapital Market Assumptions

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Portfolio Lab optimizes across 57 asset classes using this correlation matrix, finding the allocation that maximizes your risk-adjusted returns.

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Questions this page answers

What is Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market?

Bitcoin's correlation with global equities is 0.33 in the matrix Portfolio Lab measures from monthly returns (the figure moves as the histories grow). However, this varies significantly over time, and the rolling 3-month correlation swings from -0.3 to +0.6 depending on market regime. During crises (like March 2020), correlation spikes temporarily before reverting.

Are Bitcoin and gold correlated?

Despite both being called 'sound money,' Bitcoin and gold have very low correlation, approximately 0.10-0.15 across most time windows. This makes them effective diversifiers of each other. Their return drivers are fundamentally different: gold responds to real interest rates and central bank buying, while Bitcoin responds to adoption curves and monetary policy narratives.

What rolling correlation window should I use?

Match the window to your decision: 3-6 months for detecting regime changes and tactical rebalancing, 1 year for annual allocation reviews, 3-5 years for strategic asset allocation decisions, and 5-10 years for capital market assumptions. Short windows are noisy but catch crises early. Long windows show structural relationships.

Keep reading

Bitcoin's correlation to stocks is lower than you think →
RESEARCH · WHAT THE ROLLING WINDOW SHOWS
Bitcoin vs gold: which is the better diversifier? →
RESEARCH · 15 YEARS OF WEEKLY DATA

A correlation is one number. The optimizer reads the whole matrix to work out what a diversifier is actually worth to you.

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