PORTFOLIO LAB / INTERACTIVE RESEARCH / 09 SEP 2026
100% conviction.
A different question about allocation.
You can believe strongly in Bitcoin and still ask how much exposure serves a particular financial goal. A higher return assumption can mean less capital needs to do that job in a model—while 100% Bitcoin can offer more upside.
Give the conviction a target.
Edit freely, then press Enter or leave the field to update. Blank or invalid entries keep the last value; values outside the shown limits are capped.
First Bitcoin allocation reaching the target
21.32%
The remaining 78.68% is split 60/40 between equities and bonds.
100% Bitcoin · terminal illustration
$404,556
Reaches the target in this projection. The extra upside is visible here.
0% Bitcoin · 60/40 terminal illustration
$195,167
The chosen target requires 9.60% annual compound growth.
These are hypothetical projections, not probabilities of success or allocation recommendations. Risk assumptions stay fixed. No contributions, withdrawals, fees, taxes or inflation adjustment.
How much does the belief change the answer?
For your target and timeframe, compare six Bitcoin return assumptions. Select a row to explore it.
Left: Bitcoin return assumption. Right: first allocation reaching your target. Bars use a 0–100% allocation scale.
What does that mean for a person?
A target puts a purpose next to an investment belief: a future purchase, a pot of capital, or more freedom to choose. Once the model reaches that target, additional exposure is a choice about further upside and uncertainty. It is not required by the target calculation itself.
The remainder here is invested in equities and bonds. It is not a cash reserve, and can fall in value too.
Conviction still needs room for uncertainty.
Volatility is not the same as permanent loss. But the timing of price changes matters if you need to sell for a real expense. This calculation does not model that timing, the chance of missing your target, or how much you could safely spend.
A more bullish input is a belief to examine, not evidence that a smaller allocation will reliably fund a goal.
Assumptions and calculation — inspect the full method
This is a frozen 9 September 2026 research example, matching the published chart. It does not update with the workstation’s current forecasts. Amounts are nominal US dollars, with no contributions or withdrawals and no deduction for fees or investor taxes. Inflation is not deducted.
Global equities: 7.73370265% annual compound return and 16.78% volatility. US aggregate bonds: 5.01352366% compound return and 4.76% volatility. Bitcoin volatility: 42.5%. Correlations: equities/bonds 0.280836; equities/Bitcoin 0.330977; bonds/Bitcoin 0.113733. All risk assumptions remain fixed when you change Bitcoin’s return or the horizon.
Bitcoin’s input is an annual compound return assumption. The app converts it to an arithmetic mean, combines weighted means and covariance, then converts back using a moment-matched lognormal approximation. It assumes constant portfolio weights. Terminal illustration = starting amount × (1 + portfolio compound estimate) raised to the number of years. This is not expected terminal wealth, a simulated median, a success probability, or a guaranteed path.
The allocation search checks 0% through 100% Bitcoin in 0.01 percentage-point increments, with the remainder always 60% global equities and 40% US aggregate bonds. It reports the first crossing, not an optimal allocation across all possible portfolios. The table rounds to two decimals; the social chart rounds to one. Returns may not rise monotonically with allocation.
Equity and bond inputs come from Portfolio Lab’s benchmark equity and bond carry models captured for the original analysis. Changing the horizon holds these annual estimates constant; it does not rerun those underlying valuation models.
Return methodology · Bitcoin assumptions · Download the frozen inputs
Put a fuller plan around the idea.
Explore portfolios, historical backtests and simulated paths in the workstation. Its current assumptions may differ from this frozen example; the settings above are not transferred.
Open the workstation →