Your Retirement Setup
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$24,000/yr from age 65
Display only. All calculations run in USD.
Stocks60%
Bonds40%
Cash0%
Bitcoin0%
Gold0%
Configure your retirement setup above and click Run Simulation.
A thousand simulated futures for a portfolio that holds Bitcoin, so the answer accounts for the years it falls 80 percent rather than assuming an average that never happens.
$24,000/yr from age 65
Display only. All calculations run in USD.
Configure your retirement setup above and click Run Simulation.
In our Monte Carlo simulations on the default assumptions, a 5-15% Bitcoin sleeve alongside stocks, bonds, and gold raises both median outcomes and survival rates: a 5% allocation lifted 30-year survival under the 4% rule from about 81% to just under 90%. Bitcoin's higher expected return does the lifting while the rest of the portfolio absorbs its volatility. A 100% Bitcoin retirement is a different proposition, because a 70%+ drawdown early in retirement can sink a portfolio that withdrawals are already draining. Use the calculator above to test your own allocation, horizon, and withdrawal rate.
If you want the answer in coins, we ran the numbers across Bitcoin return assumptions from 0% to 20% a year in How Much Bitcoin Do You Need to Retire? For the broader allocation question, read our data-driven answer to how much Bitcoin belongs in a portfolio.
It depends on your allocation, time horizon, and withdrawal rate. Monte Carlo simulations show that a 5-15% Bitcoin allocation can improve retirement portfolio survival rates compared to a traditional 60/40 portfolio, thanks to Bitcoin's higher expected return and low correlation with bonds. However, 100% Bitcoin portfolios have extremely wide outcome dispersion: the best scenarios are generationally wealthy, but the worst run out of money.
Based on forward-looking Monte Carlo simulations on the default assumptions, 5-15% Bitcoin appears to be the sweet spot for most retirement portfolios. This range improves median outcomes and survival rates without significantly worsening worst-case scenarios. Above 15%, concentration risk increases meaningfully.
A small Bitcoin allocation (5-10%) can meaningfully improve survival rates under the 4% withdrawal rule. In our simulations a 5% allocation lifted 30-year survival from about 81% to just under 90%, because Bitcoin's expected return (15% geometric) is higher than equities (7%) and its correlation with bonds is near zero. However, this assumes annual rebalancing and the discipline not to sell during major drawdowns.
If Bitcoin's true expected return equals equities (~7%), adding it to a retirement portfolio simply adds volatility without extra return, making it net negative. The diversification benefit only works if Bitcoin's expected return exceeds equities, which most institutional estimates (VanEck, ARK, J.P. Morgan) currently suggest it does.
One sleeve inside one plan. The workstation optimises the whole portfolio around it and reports the result.
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