Can you retire with Bitcoin? Monte Carlo simulator with 1,000 paths across stocks, bonds, cash, Bitcoin, and gold. J.P. Morgan 2026 assumptions, Cornish-Fisher fat-tail adjustment.
$24,000/yr (4.8% withdrawal rate)
Display only — all calculations run in USD.
Configure your retirement setup above and click Run Simulation.
The arithmetic has two steps. First, divide your annual spending by your withdrawal rate to get the portfolio you need — at the classic 4% rule, $40,000 a year requires a $1,000,000 portfolio. Second, divide that by Bitcoin's price to convert it into coins. The table below shows the BTC required to fund different spending levels if Bitcoin were your entire portfolio, across a range of prices.
| Annual spending | Portfolio at 4% rule | BTC @ $50k | BTC @ $75k | BTC @ $100k | BTC @ $150k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | $1.0M | 20.0 | 13.3 | 10.0 | 6.7 |
| $60,000 | $1.5M | 30.0 | 20.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 |
| $80,000 | $2.0M | 40.0 | 26.7 | 20.0 | 13.3 |
| $120,000 | $3.0M | 60.0 | 40.0 | 30.0 | 20.0 |
Treat those numbers as an upper bound on what a pure-Bitcoin retirement demands, not a plan. A 100% BTC portfolio has the widest outcome dispersion of anything you can hold: the strong scenarios compound into generational wealth, while the weak ones collide with a 70%+ drawdown early in retirement and never recover — the sequence-of-returns problem. The 4% rule itself was derived from diversified stock-and-bond portfolios, so it doesn't transfer cleanly to a single volatile asset.
The more robust question is how much Bitcoin your portfolio should hold. In our Monte Carlo simulations with J.P. Morgan 2026 assumptions, a 5–15% Bitcoin sleeve alongside stocks, bonds, and gold tends to raise both median outcomes and survival rates — Bitcoin's higher expected return does the lifting while the rest of the portfolio absorbs its volatility. Use the calculator above to model your own allocation, horizon, and withdrawal rate, or read our data-driven answer to how much Bitcoin belongs in a portfolio.
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